Indonesia’s Botched Flood Response

Welcome to Foreign policySoutheast Asia Brief.

This week’s highlights: Indonesia continues to lead Flood crisisThailand and Cambodia Clashes on the borderMyanmar is Opium Center of the WorldChinese cars are under increasing pressure Regional manufacturers.

As we were wrapping up this week’s newsletter, a new round of fighting broke out along the Thai-Cambodian border. Previous clashes had already led to Thailand suspending the peace agreement. Now the conflict has reached a level of intensity reminiscent of the brief July War, with the dangerous potential for further escalation.

The spark appears to have been a clash between Thai and Cambodian forces along a disputed area of ​​the border on Sunday, December 7. Both sides accused the other of firing first.

After matters escalated, Thailand announced, on Monday, the killing of a Thai soldier and the wounding of eight others. The Cambodian government claimed that four civilians were killed and nine injured in the Thai strikes.

Meanwhile, citizens are fleeing on both sides of the border. The Thai army says it has evacuated more than 385,000 civilians from border areas. The Cambodian government says it has evacuated 1,157 families to safe areas.

It appears that many factors combined to make the floods so severe. The floods are the result of a cyclone, a rare weather event in Indonesia. Deforestation may also have exacerbated the impact of the flood.

But the main problem now is the slow pace of relief. Roads damaged by floods and landslides have left vast areas inaccessible and left supplies dangerously low. “People are not dying from floods, but from hunger,” Aceh Governor Mazakur Manaf told the media.

Local residents who spoke to FP by phone described being left to fend for themselves. “It took a very long time for aid to arrive,” said Fahri, a local activist in Matur, West Sumatra. “No aid arrived on the first day after the incident.”

Even in major cities like Padang, the capital of West Sumatra, the situation remains bleak. Victims in homes submerged in mud – sometimes up to their knees or thighs – need digging equipment, said local resident Novi Rovica. She described the clay as hardening due to the hot weather, and also said that there was a shortage of temporary housing to house people.

Notably, the government refused to declare a national emergency, instead describing the relief as a “national priority,” a designation that carries no actual legal status. Declaring a national emergency would allow the government, among other things, to request or welcome international assistance. Instead, the government pointedly rejected the aid, saying it was not necessary.

“National pride, influenced by domestic politics, undermines humanitarian needs,” said Mizan Bisri, principal researcher for Southeast Asia at the Asian Center for Disaster Reduction. Bisri pointed to the lack of tents, clean water, and search and rescue capabilities. Local officials warn of the possibility of famine if the situation persists.

The government’s poor response appears to be sparking growing public anger, which has been exacerbated by the apparent tone-deafness of some political figures. The head of the National Disaster Relief Agency initially downplayed the severity of the situation, saying it had been exaggerated on social media. Meanwhile, a presidential aide turned his visit with President Prabowo Subianto to flood-hit areas into a lifestyle video on Instagram.

A South African national, Ben Mauerberger, also known as Ben Smith, allegedly worked with Yim Leak to launder the money. Reported by Whale Hunting, an outlet run by the former two Wall Street Journal The journalists who exposed the 1MDB scandal said he had links to former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, for whom he apparently served as an advisor.

Moreover, the day after the latest raid, a photo emerged showing Mauerberger with Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Finance Minister Eknitti Nitithanprabhas. Anutin admitted to meeting Mauerberger, but said that it happened in 2014, and that they were not close, and denied having any business dealings with him. Mauerberger has denied all allegations made against him by Whale Hunting.

Opium production booms in Myanmar Opium production in Myanmar has reached its highest level in 10 years. The area cultivated with opium rose by 17 percent compared to 2024, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, and has risen steadily since 2021, when civil war broke out in response to the military coup.

Shan State, especially Southern Shan, is the most important production center, accounting for 88 percent of the cultivated area. The state is a patchwork of different parts controlled by the military and different armed ethnic groups. However, it is interesting to note that agriculture is particularly intensive in the area around Taung Yi, a town over which the junta has a relatively strong grip.

For local farmers, the military and ethnic armed groups alike, the opium economy — which the report estimates is worth between $641 million and $1.1 billion in 2024 — is a useful source of funds. Production became more organized, with higher productivity per acre. The Taliban’s sharp reduction in opium production in Afghanistan has also pushed up prices around the world, while making Myanmar the world’s largest producer. The report notes that Myanmar heroin appears to be spreading into new markets, such as Europe, which Afghanistan previously supplied.

Nationalist, influencer, war criminal? A fascinating look at Goon Gumbalang, a Thai social media influencer who allegedly launched psychological warfare efforts against Cambodian civilians, by Surachani Srayai at Fulcrum.

How Malaysia and Cambodia signed agreements with the US that implicitly obligated them to follow US restrictions on exports of sensitive goods to China, by Shannon Teoh in Straight Times.

“Don’t kick us out like we’re stray cats.” Expansion of cemeteries threatens to displace Jakarta’s poor Jakarta Post.

2. Number of times the phrase “Southeast Asia” appears in the US National Security Strategy. Many in the region may be relieved to see under President Donald Trump a rare piece of continuity in American foreign policy: ignoring Southeast Asia.

China’s booming global electric vehicle industry is putting serious pressure on established players in America, Japan and Europe. Will the same thing happen in Southeast Asia?

Isolated from US markets, Chinese producers are looking for sales elsewhere, and Southeast Asia is an important region. So far, this experience seems to be painful for countries with a large automobile sector, namely Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Ideally, these countries would like to attract Chinese companies to produce locally, but this has been slow to happen. In Thailand, dubbed the Detroit of Asia and the region’s largest EV market, imported Chinese models accounted for 85% of EV sales in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency. Local producers are suffering, facing competition and the collapse of local sales.

The picture is not much better elsewhere. Indonesia also imports most of its rapidly growing electric vehicle sector, and plans to attract production to the country have had only limited success. There are warning signs that Malaysian manufacturers are under pressure. Although Vietnam’s local electric vehicle brand, VinFast, has sold tens of thousands of cars domestically, it has also incurred losses worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Even factories that produce cars are struggling as Chinese-produced gasoline cars flood the region.

Why does this matter? Automotive industries are important to three of these four economies. For a long time, Southeast Asia has tended to view China favorably, integrating with it economically and welcoming its investments. But now Southeast Asia faces a similar situation to Europe, concerned that China’s mass production will diminish valuable domestic industries. If the United States were not so intent on shooting itself in the foot with tariffs, there might be an opportunity to attract Southeast Asian countries as better economic partners.