Iran Nuclear Talks: Where to Now?

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump suggested that American and Israeli military operations have already closed the Iranian nuclear file: “The only thing we ask for [in future talks with Iran] It is what we were asking before, about “we do not want any nuclear” – but we destroyed nuclear weapons. “However, even if the president’s allegations were that the Iranian uranium enrichment facilities were” completely obliterated “completely and fully proving that they are correct (and this is far from the guarantee), the last conflict has been introduced in a period of great nuclear uncertainty, which threatens tension if not eaten quickly.

It is clear that the Iranian nuclear program may be affected, although it is too early to know how bad. Other developments are less reassuring. Iran seems to have kept the custody of its highly enriched uranium stocks, most likely enough to supply multiple bombs if it is more fertilized. “We will work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something of this fuel, and this is one of the things that we will have talks with the Iranians,” US Vice President JD Vance told ABC News on Sunday.

On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump suggested that American and Israeli military operations have already closed the Iranian nuclear file: “The only thing we ask for [in future talks with Iran] It is what we were asking before, about “we do not want any nuclear” – but we destroyed nuclear weapons. “However, even if the president’s allegations were that the Iranian uranium enrichment facilities were” completely obliterated “completely and fully proving that they are correct (and this is far from the guarantee), the last conflict has been introduced in a period of great nuclear uncertainty, which threatens tension if not eaten quickly.

It is clear that the Iranian nuclear program may be affected, although it is too early to know how bad. Other developments are less reassuring. Iran seems to have kept the custody of its highly enriched uranium stocks, most likely enough to supply multiple bombs if it is more fertilized. “We will work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something of this fuel, and this is one of the things that we will have talks with the Iranians,” US Vice President JD Vance told ABC News on Sunday.

Although Trump wondered whether the new nuclear deal is necessary, in reality, a skilled diplomacy will be needed to facilitate peace and prevent a metastatic uncertainty about Iran’s remaining capabilities of hatching for years to come. Such negotiations are rarely clear, especially with Tehran. Unfortunately, recent events also undermined many tools and institutions that the United States relied on and others historically to compensate for nuclear risks.

Tehran strategy It is clear that the nuclear threshold has failed to deter external attacks, not only against nuclear facilities but also against military and military targets. There is a real danger that this will harden his intention to obtain nuclear weapons. If Iran is following the bomb, whether now or in the future, it is likely that it will choose the most difficult widespread paths. Iran will not need to rebuild large -scale facilities such as Natanz or Fordo if the enemy decides for the bomb, and it will be difficult to discover the smaller sites, even with great intelligence. With highly enriched uranium access, advanced centrifugal components, and skilled staff (conditions that definitely apply), the current or future system can reshape the nuclear weapons program in a relatively short time.

Even if the Iranian nuclear weapons program is never revived, the evaluation that these aspirations are still asleep will demand vigilance, resources and attention for years to come. Tehran, which has a busy record in hiding nuclear activities, will fight to persuade the international community that he has abandoned the chase.

In this context, the clear deterioration of Iran’s relationship with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – the World Supervision Authority that protects civilian nuclear programs against misuse – is particularly disturbing. The agency played an important role in previous efforts to retreat the Iranian nuclear program, including in implementing the 2015 joint comprehensive action plan (JCPOA). JCPOA granted the agency unprecedented to the Iranian nuclear program, including the facilities that have been bombed in recent weeks.

Before the war, relations between Iran and IAEA were already on a path. After the Trump administration withdrew from JCPOA in 2018 (Tehran was compliance at that time), Iran began to move away from its obligations regarding this agreement. In February 2021, the regime stopped implementing its additional protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency, a clause of guarantees that expands information participation and access to the inspector. It also reduced most of JCPOA monitoring requirements, which were designed to make secret activities more difficult to hide by enhancing censorship at multiple points in the nuclear fuel cycle.

The routine prize inspections continued, as some ideas about Iran’s evolving program were increasingly presented, although the escalating installation prompted the Council of the International Atomic Energy Governors to declare Iran in violation of its obligations other than to spread on June 12. Israel launched its campaign the next day, and VANCE responded to the results of the International Energy Energy Agency in the United States.

Although the inspections were suspended during the conflict, the International Atomic Energy Agency continued to monitor the situation for its best capabilities and urge Iran to maintain its dialogue with the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Emergency Center. “The nuclear facilities and materials should not be surrounded by the fog of war.”

However, with fog cleansing, there are questions about the role that the agency will be able to play to go forward. At least at the present time, Iran remains a party to the Nuclear Non -Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and is still binding on its comprehensive guarantees agreement, which requires states to announce nuclear materials and facilities for the International Atomic Energy Agency and allow inspectors to verify that they are not divided to achieve non -machine endless ends. Moreover, if Iran recognizes the demands of the Trump administration to some extent that it permanently abandons nuclear weapons, the technical experience of the International Agency for Rak and the familiarity of the program’s history will be invaluable in ensuring the international community that the ability to weapons cannot be easily reshape.

For Iran, cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency will be controversial politically, especially after the recent events, and the growing choir of local mockery exclamates future challenges. Iranian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Aragichi, reduced the international community to his failure to prevent or condemn attacks on civilian nuclear facilities under the guarantees of the International Atomic Energy Agency. During the conflict, Ali Larijani, Advisor to Ayatollah Ali Khounai, threatened even the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency: “Once the war ends, we will deal with Grussia.” Officials have already stated that they will stop sharing some information with the agency, and the Iranian parliament recently passed a bill calling the government to suspend Iran’s cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency completely.

In the coming days and weeks, policy makers will carefully distinguish between the legitimate frustrations of Iran, local political restrictions, and attempts to manipulate these circumstances to hide the aspirations of proper reproduction. In fact, the expected future will be characterized by great speculation about both Iran’s capabilities and intentions.

Looking at the extent of its development The Iranian nuclear program, and the extent of the recently absorbed damage, has become, as the checks of checking the verification of decisive in the coming weeks and months will be. In his comments on Wednesday, Trump said that the United States and Iran will hold talks next week; These basic lines should be a major axis. The international community needs to know the capabilities that Iran has preserved after these attacks and identify equipment and materials that can be used to reshape the program at a later time.

Some uncertainty is inevitable, although doubts will work on a height if Iran is not fun (or if politics and the public must take Tehran’s words of nominal value). Although Iraq dismantled its nuclear program after its defeat in the first Gulf War, the international community did not trust its success, and this is partly due to the uncompromising Iraqi obstruction. Over time, these incidents provided endless feed for skepticism and excuse for unlimited interventions. The solution to the nuclear question in this way did not lead to regional stability.

If all parties, including Iran, aspires to more than just a temporary rest period between nuclear crises, they must give priority to restore a degree of transparency, through multilateral mechanisms. Although the recent events have offered the development of Israeli intelligence penetration and the United States, the general contradictions regarding imminent, or non -prominent threats also emphasize Iranian weapons on the vintage of dependence exclusively on these sources (and how it explains the leaders). Iran’s grievances may be proven with the International Atomic Energy Agency that cannot be overcome, but in the absence of cooperation, it will be difficult to avoid future crises and even difficult to get rid of.