Israeli Attacks on Syria Are Part of a Broader, Fearful Approach After Oct. 7

It seems that the fighting in the Syrian city of Sweida has finally ended this week after being affected by several bulletins. Druze and Badwin militias, which fought each other at a cost of about 1,200 people, agreed to put their arms and exchange the prisoners. The Syrian security forces were controlling the area, as President Ahmed Al -Sharra pledged to protect ethnic and religious minorities in Syria and trial those who lead violence. Israel, which she said, intervened to defend the Druze, had already completed the bombing campaign a few days ago, and until Monday it was providing medical supplies to Suwaida.

However, no one expects seriously that this is the last caval of sectarian violence in Syria. The militants inside and outside the government oppose the president’s efforts to create a religiously tolerant society in line with the West. The grip of the SR government over the country is weak, and many Syria are still in the hands of local militias, do not trust the new rulers. All this presents a dilemma for Israel because it moves in a new balance in the Middle East of strength, at least in theory, gives it the ability to act as it sees it appropriate. Syria is mature for Israeli intervention again.

It seems that the fighting in the Syrian city of Sweida has finally ended this week after being affected by several bulletins. Druze and Badwin militias, which fought each other at a cost of about 1,200 people, agreed to put their arms and exchange the prisoners. The Syrian security forces were controlling the area, as President Ahmed Al -Sharra pledged to protect ethnic and religious minorities in Syria and trial those who lead violence. Israel, which she said, intervened to defend the Druze, had already completed the bombing campaign a few days ago, and until Monday it was providing medical supplies to Suwaida.

However, no one expects seriously that this is the last caval of sectarian violence in Syria. The militants inside and outside the government oppose the president’s efforts to create a religiously tolerant society in line with the West. The grip of the SR government over the country is weak, and many Syria are still in the hands of local militias, do not trust the new rulers. All this presents a dilemma for Israel because it moves in a new balance in the Middle East of strength, at least in theory, gives it the ability to act as it sees it appropriate. Syria is mature for Israeli intervention again.

For nearly 14 years of the civil war in Syria, Israel stood in isolation from its military activity in hitting Iranian weapons heading to Hezbollah and providing some low assistance to the Druze and Kurdish minorities. This suddenly changed last December, when the Shara forces toppled Bashar al -Assad. Israel seized the descending area along the Syrian border and the strategic summit of Mount Hebron, while its air force attacked the Syrian army facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in southern Syria, declared (the area adjacent to the Golan Heights occupied by Israel and where most of the Druze of Syria lives) is a zone that does not move, not only for the militias but for the Syrian army. But it was not the change of the regime in Damascus that changed the approach of Israel in Syria.

Decades ago, Israeli Prime Minister Levy Ishkol described Israel’s imagination of himself politically and military in the Middle East, such as Shimshon der nebechdikerYiddish for the weak samson (unlike his image in the Book of Judges Bible, where Samson is famous for its physical strength). On the one hand, Israel has been more powerful than any of its enemies since the 1960s; On the other hand, he feels that his existence in particular is constantly threatened. Since the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023, the Israeli Samson is more associated with the muscles than ever but not less fear.

The weak side was amplified due to the shock of October 7. After reducing the threat of Hamas in the previous years, as it treated it as a problem that can be contained through good intelligence, border walls, and cross military operations, Israel now sees that there is something they spend. ”Netanyahu also loves to say. Informing the policy of Israel in Syria with the same concerns. Israeli officials, such as Foreign Minister, Saar Shar and his government, described the jihadist “in the claims”, ready to strike in Israel.

The Samson team has been associated with everything that has almost happened since October 7. Despite the madness of greatness around Hamas, the organization was effectively defeated. (The war is preserved these days to satisfy the coalition partners in the extremist Israeli government, who dream of resettlement of Gaza. Hezbollah was defeated by the Supreme Command and the missiles have deteriorated significantly. He did not put any resistance to repeated Israeli attacks on Lebanese soil. Although the war achievements with Iran are still under discussion, there is no doubt that Israel has removed air defenses in the country, destroyed many of its military leadership, and to some extent, it restored Iran’s nuclear program with the help of the United States. The alleged Iranian resistance axis has collapsed or has become useless.

The result is that many in Israel now see the country as the strong regional man, who is charged with preserving order and stability, at least as Israeli interests are directly at stake.

In Syria last week, this division was weak and strong in playing. Weakness in the Israeli anxiety was expressed by the militias that establish themselves in southern Syria while fighting the Druze fighters and the Syrian army, which is deployed outwardly to restore the regime. In fact, Israel did not attack Badwin’s fighters, but the Syrian army was when it dared to enter the declared buffer zone in Israel. Israel has been expressed to the strength of its decision to enter the fighting, knowing that the Syrian army will not be able to fight. Israel’s decision to bomb the entrance to the Syrian Ministry of Defense in the heart of Damascus was a currency of the tools of the hop, a demonstration of power.

The third aspect of Israeli policy in play was: local policy. The right -wing Netanyahu government includes (until last week, when they resigned, religious parties) have no great interest in or hostile minorities in the country. However, the government’s decision to help in the Druze of Syria as a humanitarian action and gesture of the Israeli community has been frame.

It goes without saying that the Druze under Israeli rule, which includes about 150,000 citizens living in an appropriate Israel and 25,000 others in the Golan Heights (most of them are not citizens), were concerned about the fate of their brothers in Syria after the fighting erupted on July 13. Being on the border of the current in Syria in the display of solidarity.

If the Druze is any other Arab minority, the government is likely to have ignored their appeals or worse, they were arrested or shot in those who cross the enemy lands. The reason for this is that, unlike other Israeli Arabs, it serves Druze in the Israeli army; Many have become professional officers, and some of them lost their lives in Gaza. They are considered loyal citizens. Their situation is that last Thursday, even Ashkenazi Rabbi in Israel called Israel and the world to help the Syrian Druze. “We are witnessing a brutal campaign to kill against the Druze people, and an attack on the image [of God] In humanity, “wrote in an open letter.

Even if Netanyahu does not tend to act out of purely human concerns, the electoral accounts may be sufficient. Unlike Arab Muslim and Christian voters, on election day, the vast majority of the Druze of parties led by Arab parties. Although the Likud party in Netanyahu picks up only a small share of the Druze vote, the upcoming elections are likely to be closely disputed. A few thousand of polling cards may be decisive.

It was offended by two of the legislation that was approved under any of the previous Netanyahu government: the 2018 nation -state law (which gives priority to the rights of Jews in Israel) and the 2017 Kaminstez Law (which reduces the way for authorities to move illegal buildings, a practice that is often used from Arab Jews). Even before fighting in Syria, the government was seeking to calm the Druze with compensatory legislation. The arrival of the Syrian brothers was another way to accomplish this matter, especially if it corresponds to the wider Syrian government’s strategy.

Fishing is that as much as Israel now feels, its ability to play the role of a strong man is very restricted.

The first registration is US President Donald Trump. It is often difficult to verify the president’s position on the main concerns that the United States and Israel shares, but the issue that remains on the surface between his words and his contradictory actions often is that he wants to stay away from military tangles in the Middle East. He left to Drothuh, preferably to deal with the Saudis and hope against hope that Syria will become another agent for American companies. If Trump orders military action, whether he will face the Houthis or Iran, he would prefer short and sweet campaigns that end with decisive results (at least in his mind).

Trump’s vision may not stand on the glory of the glory reality of the Middle East, but at the present time, Netanyahu must deal with it. The aggressive position that Israel has adopted since October 7 has friction with Washington on Iran, Lebanon and Gaza – and now over Syria. The United States has mediated quiet talks between Israel and Syria, amid hints on the establishment of bilateral relations in the end. Washington explained that it did not support the Israeli bombing campaign last week and worked to arrange a ceasefire. On Sunday, Axios quoted a White House official who did not reveal his name, putting the difference in simple and strict phrases: “Bibi behaves like a crazy man. He explodes everything all the time … This can undermine what Trump is trying to do.”

The second registration is local. Yes, Israel’s use of intelligence and technology to defeat its enemies was impressive. But you cannot claim that it is a great power when it comes to its economy, population size, or even the initial ability of its military apparatus. These borders can be seen within 21 months of fighting since October 7, which has strained the country’s capabilities. Without a vast American supply of weapons and the willingness of military reserve players to serve in some cases hundreds of days, the war was not possible. Israel cannot rely on Trump to provide the same assistance that his predecessor Joe Biden did. Last year, Israel led the world in military spending as a percentage of GDP (8.8 %) after Ukraine, according to the data of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. If plans are approved to strengthen this year’s budget (to cover the cost of renewed fighting in Gaza and the war with Iran), defensive spending will reach 7 percent of GDP, the world rankings are likely to be led again. These are not sustainable numbers.

Supporters of the aggressive strategy of Israel may argue that the packages will save Israel from fighting expensive wars in the future by putting threats in the buds. But whether it is Syria, Lebanon, or Iran, aggression is likely to intertwine in wars that cannot fight.