‘It’s like when you see the tsunami coming in’: Agricultural economists are sounding the alarm about produce prices doubling

However, these consumers “have no idea of ​​what is happening”, Raymond Robertson, A economist at Bush College in Texas A &M Bush, who advised American agencies on trade and employment policy, said, luck.

Instead, Robertson said that voters distort their attention from the political noise of President Donald Trump, while real drivers are shocked by the grocery sticker – the deficiency and customs tariffs – are to tighten their grip. Deportation of deportation and the abstraction of unconventional workers, who “with an overwhelming majority” constitute the agricultural workforce. At the same time, the new definitions of foodstuffs such as tomatoes, coffee and orange juice raise costs on imports, leaving little alternatives at reasonable prices.

“The effects are unambiguous.” luck. “It is upward pressure on those prices.”

The White House did not respond immediately luckRequest to comment.

Hanson added that the only question is the amount of pain farmers, wholesalers, and retailers absorbing it before it lands on the groceries and consumer vehicles.

Cold in winter cold

The first wave of increases in the grocery price is likely to reach this winter. Roberson expected that the prices of products may rise by 50 % to 100 % by early next year with the start of clear stocks and new contracts. Unlike the past decades, when Washington was quietly relieving the border to preserve the field employees, the political environment today suggests such a check.

Robertson warned, “This looks when you see an upcoming flood, a tsunami will come, and the water rose two inch.”

Robertson said that the reason for the lack of employment is that workers born in the United States do not simply want to do a manual work that is usually provided to workers born abroad who have no documents. Unable to obtain salaries of about $ 18 per hour to choose strawberries – a type of wages that American citizens can get in the ice cream store.

Robertson said that you will have to pay two American citizens “between $ 25 to 30 per hour” to get them in the fields.

The shortage is already visible on the ground. In Dover, Florida, Matt Park of the Parksdel farmer told the Daily newspaper that his family work is strongly inclined to the H-2A-specially designed to support foreign agricultural workers-to fill the gaps.

However, economists say the program is very small and very exhausting to resolve the crisis on its own. Hanson noticed while H-2A has expanded in recent years, guest workers still represent a “small part of the workforce.”

Hanson said: “It should be much larger, in millions instead of hundreds of thousands, to meet us,” Hanson said.

The visas also end in each season, which require frequent requests, housing and transportation costs for each worker.

Hanson added: “If you want to employ the same worker for five years in a row, you must get five different visas,” Hanson added.

Robertson agreed, but he believed that the Trump administration can easily expand the H-2A program to meet the ability, especially given the innovations of facial recognition technology and other security measures.

Robertson said: “It is my mind that they do not do this,” Robertson said.

Definitions that create a double connection

Imports, once in the reserve when American crops were short, are no longer able to provide relief. Mexico has a structural feature in crops such as avocado and tomatoes-which grow crops throughout the year-but Trump’s tariff made it more expensive by default.

“Mexico produces more avocado than us,” Hanson said. “It is not as if you can grow new avocado trees and get an additional crop next year.”

Hanson also said that shoppers would feel tariffs in about six months.

“Consumers will not see the full success of definitions to the prices of products, but they will likely see at least 50 %.”

For consumers, the double connection to the deportation and the nearby definitions can reshape the shopping in grocery. Economists warn of more exposed products and dairy, and many families will have to trade in retrospective foods and treatment.

As vegetables [prices] Keep upward, people will replace these very hot foods that are very equipped, which will eventually have harmful effects on their health. ”

The only thing that political makers can do, in Hanson minds, is to encourage “low definitions”.

Hanson said, “It is simple,” Hanson said. “If we are able to create greater flows of legal farms and low definitions, consumers will be better. Any other policy tries to retract the current policy damage.

He said that these battles are not new. Definitions and immigration are topics that the United States suffers from periodic political battles since the fifties, and today’s environment is a “very intense appearance” of these conflicts. But history indicates that as soon as the prices are high, voters forces the hands of legislators. Now, Trump presses congress to keep a solid line around migration. He explained that consumers are retreating from the high prices, but then approaching the mid -term elections, and consumers are setting up for high prices, and your steadfast line begins to weak.

Hanson said: “This is just how politics works,” Hanson said.