Jake Paul Vs Anthony Joshua Odds & Predictions: Best Bets

by Brad Marchetti: The betting odds on Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have been out for a couple of weeks, and the sharps have hit Paul enough to push the line from -2000 to Joshua into the -1000 to -950 range.

The 36-year-old Joshua, 28-4 with 25 KOs, will be inactive for 14 months when he steps into the ring with Paul. He is coming off a fight in which he was crushed from pillar to post by Daniel Dubois despite entering as a -550 boxing betting favorite.

Paul, 12-1 with 7 KOs, has been dominant in his last outing, scoring a one-sided decision over former WBC middleweight champion, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., as a -700 favorite. With a tidal wave of bets pouring in on Paul, it raises an interesting question. Is everyone wrong in assuming that Jake Paul is just a club fighter covered in fame and fortune?

Before I give my official pick and bet advice, I have one question for all you fanatics, media members, promoters and haters in general. Why do most people don’t seem to like Jake Paul? Last time I checked, the guy was never in the news for any scandal, arrest, or general bad behavior. Paul is cutting checks to his fighters who have more zeros than ever before as a true ambassador for women’s boxing.

Paul could become the most self-promoting athlete of all time, beating Muhammad Ali, which would inspire aspiring entrepreneurs everywhere. What’s interesting to me is that he has his own bookmaking service with Betr Picks. By all accounts, he seems like a great guy with a great sense of humor, tireless work ethic, and brass balls. Damn, I want to have a beer with a G like that.

However, at one point or another, almost every promoter has attacked him. Here is a list of promoters who described Paul as a pretender rather than a competitor: Eddie Hearn, Dana White, Bob Arum, Turki Al-Sheikh, and Lou DiBella. All I can say is beware of the heavyweight who wants respect. When a prizefighter feels disrespected in a game that demands respect, he is extremely dangerous.

In 1962, Benny “Kid” Barrett hurled homophobic insults at Emil Griffith before their middleweight title fight, and Griffith placed him in a coffin. Paul has been disrespected in every possible way and wants to prove that he is the real article. Can he do that? As a former boxing oddsmaker, I analyze what many consider a David vs. Goliath match to uncover the real betting odds between Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua.

power

Joshua is contracted to come in at a maximum of 245 pounds. This seems to be a smart move on Paul’s part. The 245 pound and up version of Joshua is arguably better than the leaner version of 235 to 240. Mass plus strength plus acceleration equals punching power, and Joshua relies heavily on being a boxer. Paul looked formidable at 227 pounds when he fought Mike Tyson in his heavyweight debut, but he could weigh a few pounds lighter to maximize his speed advantage at around 220 pounds.

Height and use of reach

Joshua is tall at 6’6″ with long arms, but he has never been known as a dominant outside fighter. Despite being a shorter heavyweight at 6’1″, Paul fights longer than his height would suggest as he uses a less square stance than Joshua. Although Paul maximized his shorter reach, this is Joshua’s greatest advantage aside from experience.

Right hand strength

Jake Paul’s right hand is one of the best weapons in boxing, and he knows how to throw it straight or as a hook with real authority. In recent matches, the punishing right hand aimed at the hip and rib cage has also become a reliable tool.

Paul’s uppercut is a work in progress, but he lands hard. Joshua’s right cross and uppercut have made him a rich man, but he is by no means a great player like George Foreman, Ernie Chivers, or Mike Tyson. Joshua also tends to push his shots under pressure with powerful arm punches. Punch for punch, Joshua’s upper articulation gives him a modest advantage.

Left hand strength

Neither fighter is in the book of great lefties ever, but Paul’s long hook is almost on par with Joshua’s more substantial hook. Paul’s blow is more powerful, while Joshua’s blow is heavier. The upper left is not a main weapon for either of them.

Hand speed

This is one area that even the sharpest boxing minds ignore. AJ is not a fast fighter, and Paul has the fast hands of a heavyweight. Add up the 28-year-old reflexes versus the 36-year-old reflexes, and Paul has the advantage.

accuracy

Joshua has plenty of knockouts, which is a testament to his ability to hit the target, but his lack of consistent punches and tendency to lose his temper has hurt him. Paul will improve with more experience, but his one-punch knockouts show he knows how to set traps and ground clean.

Endurance

Neither fighter wins a marathon. Joshua has a little better stamina because of his experience. This being an eight-round fight, Paul timed the distance almost perfectly as he tends to fade in the eighth round. His stamina will improve, but that’s a question mark.

Defense

Under coach Ben Davison, Joshua fought with his hands low and his chin high, creating defensive weaknesses. He’s still not an easy target due to his height and punching power, but defense is not his strength. Paul’s defense is still developing, but he has quick feet and uses his broad shoulders well to block punches. Paul also scrimmages more than Joshua, which helps improve defensive timing.

chin

I always thought Joshua had a Chinese chin, similar to former UK champion Frank Bruno. Joshua has the heart and strength to get up, but anything with mediocre strength tends to sway him. Paul’s chin will face his toughest test, but the Ohio bull-necked fighter has never been knocked down or injured so badly in a professional bout.

Agility

Paul has quick feet and uses them well when hitting behind the shot, although he sometimes overcommits and becomes unbalanced. Joshua has never been known for his quick footwork and doesn’t have a lot of rhythm.

jab

Joshua will never resemble Larry Holmes with his jab, despite having a wingspan of 747. Aj’s jab has improved as he has developed into an outside chatter but not a dominant weapon. Paul’s upward shot from the hip makes it difficult for tall fighters like Joshua to locate and they can often find the target to the torso. Joshua’s arrival gives him the advantage, but Paul’s strike may help him control the fight.

intelligence

Paul was much less experienced than Joshua, but he was awkward, deceitful, and smart. El Gallo brought in Andy Ruiz, the man who beat Joshua, to help design a game plan similar to Ruiz’s. Anthony has the gold medal pedigree and world title experience, but he doesn’t make major adjustments in the ring.

The final outcome

Anthony Joshua vs Jake Paul Predictions and Best Bets

Every battle is won or lost before it is fought. -Sun Tzu

Based on my credit, Joshua is the favorite, but his odds are inflated. Because the public perception of Yeshua is overrated, and Paul’s skills are undervalued. Based on the numbers, I’d put Joshua as a 3/1 favourite.

In this fight, Paul brought three of the top 20 competitors to compete with them. Jared Anderson is 6-foot-4, 255 pounds, 18-1 with 15 knockouts. Frank Sanchez is 6-foot-4, 238 pounds, 25-1 with 18 knockouts. Lawrence Okolie is 6-foot-5, 260 pounds, 22-1 with 16 knockouts. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better trio to prepare for a fight with the massive Joshua.

Statistically, Anthony Joshua has been one of the biggest money burners in the history of heavyweight betting. AJ lost as the 25/1 favorite against Andy Ruiz, as the 4/1 favorite against Oleksandr Usyk, and most recently as the 11/2 favorite against Daniel Dubois. It is not the senior fellas’ fault that he did not live up to the gold medal expectations he set as the successor to Lennox Lewis.

The United Kingdom often portrays its heroes as demigods. The truth is, Joshua is lucky to have gotten where he has, having received benefits similar to the treatment of mob-protected fighters from the 1950s. To maintain Matchroom Boxing’s cash register, Joshua has made use of biased referees and pro judges in most of his matches. With Jake Paul’s more valuable promotions co-hosting this event, Jake may be able to level the playing field.

Boxing rewards active, hungry fighters. Joshua has been inactive for 454 days, and his desire to compete at the highest level is worth questioning. AJ arguably peaked when he knocked out Wladimir Klitschko in 2017. Since then, he has gone through a long list of trainers in search of a ring identity that he has never truly found. He started out as an assassin seeking destruction and defeating opponents. Since Ruiz’s knockout in 2019, Joshua has become cautious and reactive, often boxing unsafely on the back foot. There was something left for Joshua the night Andy Ruiz knocked him out.

Bringing in Ruiz was a great move by the ‘problem child’. Jake has quick hands and quick counter-punching instincts similar to Andy which can cause fits for Joshua. Patterns make battles. Many pundits point to Joshua’s destruction of Francis Ngannou as experimental proof of what he can do against an inexperienced foe, but Ngannou fights a completely different style. The current version of the Matchroom machine fights with his chin up and left hand down, and is the perfect ally for Paul’s right hand on Sunday. Paul’s athleticism and foot speed will also make it difficult for Joshua to hit a moving target.

Expect Paul to constantly move and use explosive bursts that prevent Joshua from finding a rhythm. While many are anticipating a knockout, I believe Paul will hang in there, move on, and work his way to a very close decision on the short track. Jake’s powerful Polly Malignaggi-style hip strike will help him control his speed. AJ will try to transform into the hungry power hitter who applied smart pressure in his prime, but once he feels the YouTuber’s heavy hands, he won’t be able to block out the shadows in his mind of Dubois’ knockout.

If the fight goes to the scorecards and Joshua fails to knock Paul out, many will claim the fix is ​​done. And Jake will put his adorable $92 million laugh and W body spray in the eyes of his critics who called him a fraud. Even if the masses refuse to give Paul proper credit after his victory over Joshua, one thing is certain. The world will be watching who the best in boxing fights next.

Joshua vs Paul best bets

Bull +550 Moneyline (3 units)

Fee +1800 (one unit)