Philippines Flood Corruption Scandal Engulfs President Bongbong Marcos

Welcome to Foreign policySoutheast Asia Brief.

This week’s highlights: Philippine president involved in expansion Corruption scandalfacing the Thaksin dynasty in Thailand law warAnd Malaysia to Ban teens from social media.

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Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is under intense pressure.

The wave of protests against corruption in flood control projects increased pressure on his government.

Government ministers have resigned. More marches, with the Catholic Church throwing its weight behind them, are scheduled for November 30.

The unrest has raised speculation that Marcos will be ousted by impeachment or a coup.

For now, this possibility probably shouldn’t be taken seriously.

The army and senior politicians denied studying such options. There is hardly a modern Philippine president who has not at one time or another been exposed to such rumors or failed attempts.

In addition, the last time a president was forced to leave office early was in 2001, when Joseph Estrada resigned amid massive protests against corruption and attempts to impeach the president.

Meanwhile, the last coup attempt was a damp squib in 2007 that lasted only a few hours.

However, there is no denying that the government is creaking under the weight.

On November 18, two senior ministers left the government – ​​the Executive Secretary, who serves as the president’s right-hand man, and the Secretary for Budget and Administration.

These departures follow the departure of Bongbong’s cousin, Martin Romualdez, who resigned as Speaker of the House of Representatives in September amid accusations of involvement in corruption in flood projects.

Marcus himself also comes under fire.

The president has been publicly accused of embezzling 25 billion pesos ($425 million) worth of funds embezzled by the company of Zalde, a former actor and former Marcos ally, with an arrest warrant outstanding for his alleged role in the scandal.

While speaking at an anti-corruption rally on November 17, Marcos’ sister, senator Imee Marcos, accused him of a cocaine addiction.

Senator Marcos said this left him unable to lead and at the mercy of corrupt “henchmen.” (President Marcos’ representatives denied both charges.)

These allegations are not new. Former President Rodrigo Duterte previously raised questions about the 2025 budget and also claimed that Marcos was a drug addict.

But Marcos rejected these accusations, denied the accusations and went after the Duterte clan.

His allies have tried to unseat Sara Duterte, Rodrigo’s daughter and vice president.

In March, Philippine police arrested Rodrigo Duterte and handed him over to the International Criminal Court over allegations of extrajudicial killings that occurred during the “war on drugs” that Duterte led as president.

What distinguishes the current turn of events from previous elite disputes is the growing popular protests that helped push the flood scandal forward.

Filipinos fed up with the rampant corruption that defines national politics are making their voices heard, echoing other protests that have rocked and toppled governments around the world.

The successive hurricanes sweeping the country have increased the importance of the issue of corruption in flood control infrastructure.

It is worth noting that Duterte’s attempts to put themselves at the head of this rebellion have yet to bear fruit.

Imee Marcos, an ally of Duterte, was allowed to address the crowd at the protests earlier this month.

But Sarah Duterte was not present, and pro-Duterte groups were not allowed to join the main protests.

To gauge popular anger, watch the protests on November 30.

The mid-November protests saw an impressive 650,000 people gather in Manila. But it was also organized by the Iglesia ni Cristo, an unusual local church known for keeping a tight grip on its flock of 3 million worshippers.

The irony here is that Marcos was the first to help push this issue to the forefront.

Faced with falling poll numbers in the wake of Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest and the sting of a poor performance in the midterm elections, he has made fighting corruption in flood infrastructure a major issue.

Unfortunately for him, Filipinos are able to ask basic questions like: “Were you not president when the 2025 budget was approved?”

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Customs exemptions in the Philippines On November 18, the Philippines announced that it had received exemptions from the 19 percent US tariff on a wide range of agricultural products including coconuts, tropical fruits and frozen tuna.

The Philippines has already received exemptions on other agricultural products such as coffee, cocoa and beef. The estimated value of these exemptions is $1 billion, according to the Philippine Department of Commerce.

Under the radar, the Philippines also benefited from exemptions worth an estimated $5.8 billion on industrial goods — including semiconductors.

This means that about half of Philippine exports to the United States are duty-free.

The Philippine government sees this as a vindication of its administration, which has previously been criticized for the tariff issue.

However, as the world has learned, a lot can be hidden under the main tariff.

Philippine negotiators are now aiming to obtain more exemptions for clothing and furniture.

Thaksin is on the ropes. Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, already serving a year in prison for corruption, faces further legal setbacks.

On November 17, the courts ruled against the former prime minister in a tax case, ordering him to pay 17.6 billion baht ($543 million) in back taxes and fines.

There is also pressure from the government to appeal the lese majeste case that Shinawatra won in August.

With elections looming, this appears to be a coordinated effort to strike at the power of the Shinawatra family and its party, Pheu Thai.

However, Shinawatra’s family is still campaigning for his release on parole.

Both cases are politically controversial.

Allegations of corruption and irregularities in relation to the tax case formed a significant part of the run-up to the 2006 coup that forced Thaksin from power.

Lèse majeste cases have long been criticized as tools to punish critics of Thailand’s conservative elite.

Malaysia social media ban Malaysia will ban individuals under the age of 16 from participating in social media starting in 2026, the Malaysian government announced on November 23.

The government had previously planned to ban only children under 13, but decided to expand the scope.

The law will require social media companies to implement identity verification to enforce age requirements. A comprehensive list of affected platforms has not yet been released.

The government said the ban was necessary for the safety of children and to protect underage people from cyberbullying, financial fraud and child sexual abuse.

The recent wave of public concern about bullying and violence in schools may have fueled this campaign.

An unspoken fear may also be discomfort with Malaysian teenagers who increasingly speak Malay with an Indonesian dialect. The two languages ​​are very similar, and many Malaysians consume content from their neighbours.

The region is at the forefront of efforts on this front.

In Australia, social media platforms will deactivate the accounts of registered users under the age of 16 next month. As the first country in the world to implement such a law, other governments are watching.

Indonesia is also considering age requirements for social media.

Vietnam is sinking again. At least 90 people have died and 12 others are missing in Vietnam in the latest wave of floods that have damaged 186,000 homes.

Vietnam has repeatedly been exposed to harsh weather conditions this year. The government estimates that natural disasters caused $2 billion in damage between January and October 2025.

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Burhanuddin Muhtadi, one of Indonesia’s leading pollsters, examines how President Prabowo Subianto has seen his popularity rebound after mass protests, and whether this will continue, in Fulcrum.

Southeast Asia’s reliance on coal has increased over the past decade, and Reuters’ Sudarshan Varadhan examines why.

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Southeast Asia appears to be split in two directions, with some economies ignoring tariffs while others struggle.

With the publication of third-quarter growth data in the six largest economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), we can see a division between the countries of the first camp – Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam – and Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines in the last camp.

On a key year-on-year basis, all six appear to be doing well.

But if we look at quarter-by-quarter growth (excluding Vietnam, which does not publish this information), a different picture emerges.

The Philippines and Indonesia saw a sharp slowdown in growth, and Thailand also slowed.

What causes this?

Countries that perform well have good performance in all aspects, with exports and domestic consumption better than expected. As for the others, they all suffer from weak domestic consumption.

There are also privacy factors. Thailand, for example, has seen a slowdown in exports and tourism.

What is interesting is that exposure to US tariffs is not a determining factor, contrary to what many had expected.

Vietnam, whose 2023 exports to the United States accounted for 28% — the highest of the six countries — is the best performer. This, despite the tariff rate at 20 percent, which is a percentage point higher than the 19 percent enjoyed by most other ASEAN countries.

To make a broad diagnosis, political factors are important.

Thailand witnessed a war and the Prime Minister was overthrown. Indonesia has spooked investors with unpredictable fiscal policy. In the Philippines, the ongoing massive corruption scandal has undermined confidence.

However, the other three provide investors with a friendlier and more predictable atmosphere.

An exception may be Vietnam, where Communist Party Secretary-General Tou Lam is aggressively seeking to reorganize and consolidate power. But for now, investors believe this system is working for them.