JPMorgan raises full-year forecast after beating Q3 profit expectations

JPMorgan Chase raised its full-year forecast for net interest income on Tuesday, after strong performance in its commercial and investment banking businesses helped it beat third-quarter earnings expectations.

Economic resilience despite the risks of a tariff war and hopes for lower U.S. interest rates has prompted companies to close big deals and consider equity offerings, raising investment banking business across Wall Street, with dealmakers anticipating a stronger 2026.

“Although there are some signs of a slowdown, particularly in job growth, the U.S. economy has remained generally resilient,” CEO Jamie Dimon said in a statement.

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“However, there remains a high degree of uncertainty caused by complex geopolitical conditions, tariffs and trade uncertainty, rising asset prices and persistent inflation risks,” he added.

The bank’s traders benefited from portfolio reorganization by their clients as stock markets reached record levels during the quarter.

Revenue from the markets division, which includes equity and fixed income trading, rose 25% to a record $8.9 billion in the third quarter, far exceeding the previous estimate.

Nei batch

Big banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America can help sense the pulse of the U.S. economy by providing insights into consumer spending, borrowing and business activity.

Net interest income, or the difference between what banks earn on loans and what they pay on deposits, continues to support industry profits.

JPMorgan Chase Tower on Park Avenue in Midtown Manhattan. (Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images)

JPMorgan has revised its interest income forecast for this year. It now expects the value of National Insurance to be about $95.8 billion for the year 2025, compared to a previous estimate of $95.5 billion. It also raised its forecasts in July.

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Analysts on average were expecting $95.4 billion, according to estimates compiled by LSEG.

Consumers remain in good financial shape, supported by a strong labor market and rising wages, industry executives said. It also means regular debt payments and a steady demand for new loans.

At JP Morgan, National Insurance shares rose 2% in the third quarter to reach $24.1 billion. Meanwhile, for the fourth quarter, it expects interest income to reach $23.5 billion, excluding markets.

It expects interest income, excluding markets, to reach $95 billion in 2026, driven by balance sheet growth and partially offset by the impact of lower interest rates.

It reported earnings of $5.07 per share in the latest quarter, comfortably beating analysts’ estimates of $4.84 per share.

Rival Wells Fargo also beat Wall Street estimates for third-quarter earnings on Tuesday.

Wall Street operations shine

Corporate deals have rebounded sharply this year after a brief slowdown in April, as companies look to capitalize on the stock market boom.

JPMorgan’s investment banking fees rose 16% in the third quarter. At the same time, trading revenues also rose at a time when economic uncertainty remains.

JPMorgan has had the most investment banking fees among its competitors so far this year, according to analytics firm Dealogic.

JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon explains his remarks after a visit to China, with FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo. (Kelai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Stocks hit all-time highs this quarter, buoyed by optimism about U.S. interest rate cuts and strong corporate earnings from big technology companies.

Revenue from its equities business jumped 33% to $3.3 billion in the third quarter, while revenue from fixed income rose 21% to $5.6 billion, driven largely by higher revenues in interest rates, credit and securitization products.

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Looking ahead, interest rate uncertainty and the ongoing US government shutdown may ignite market volatility, benefiting Wall Street trading desks.

As the government shutdown delays the release of key economic indicators, investors will focus on statements from CEOs of major companies, including Dimon, for their view on the economy.

Earlier this week, JPMorgan announced plans to hire bankers and invest up to $10 billion in U.S. companies important to national security and economic resilience as part of a broader $1.5 trillion pledge.

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The bank’s total revenue rose 9% to $47.1 billion in the quarter.

JPMorgan shares were little changed in choppy trading before the bell.