Labour braces for defeat in Caerphilly by-election

Open Editor’s Digest for free

Rula Khalaf, editor of the Financial Times, picks her favorite stories in this weekly newsletter.

Labor is bracing for a historic defeat in the upcoming by-election in Caerphilly, as it seeks to stave off the growing threat from Reform UK and Plaid Cymru in its Welsh strongholds.

A Labour stronghold, the seat of the South Wales Valleys has been consistently represented by the party in the Senedd Council since devolution in 1999. At national elections, the party has also consistently returned Labor MPs to the House of Commons for more than a century, although one defected to the SDP in 1981.

However, the October 23 election could see the ruling party lose its seat in the Senedd, with the latest opinion polls showing Labor on just 12 per cent in Caerphilly, sending shockwaves through the party.

Jack Larner, a lecturer in politics at Cardiff University, said he expected a “double race” between Reform and the Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru.

“Whoever wins it will determine the course of next year’s SEND election, which is why this is so important,” Larner said, adding that polls over the past year had shown “Labour in Wales falling to historically low numbers.”

A Survation poll put Labor in third place, a distant third behind Nigel Farage’s right-wing populist Reform Party, on 42 per cent, and Plaid Cymru, on 38 per cent. The Conservatives trailed by just 4 per cent.

The poll indicated a clear electoral division according to age, with younger voters attracted to the Plaid and Reform parties to attract the votes of older people.

Labor’s defeat could result in the party losing its effective majority in the Senate, which it currently maintains with the support of the only Liberal Democrat member of the Assembly.

The drop from 29 to 28 seats in the 60-member council will leave Labor having to turn to either the Blade or, less likely, an independent for support in the Sind votes, with or without a formal coalition.

But the outcome of the by-election will be closely watched ahead of local and regional elections in May, across Wales, Scotland and England, which pose a political risk to both Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and the Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch.

Labour’s defeat in the SEND election may raise serious questions about Starmer’s leadership, given that Wales has been a political stronghold for the party for a century.

Badenoch may also face questions given that the bulk of reform supporters appear to be former Conservative Party supporters. The poll indicated that about 70 percent of Sened’s conservative 2021 voters now support reform.

Although only 2.9% of Caerphilly’s population were born outside the UK, immigration has been a major focus of the reform campaign in the area.

Wider polls across Wales in recent months have shown Labor on just 14 per cent, down from 40 per cent in the 2021 SEND election.

The data suggests that the Blade has captured large numbers of left-leaning ex-Labour voters, while the Reform Party has absorbed ex-Conservatives and many people who had previously stopped voting.

“In England, Labor has been losing voters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats, and in Wales progressive voters are turning dull,” Larner said.

He added that the final result would depend largely on turnout, which is typically low for the Snead election and by-elections in particular.