Why China Didn’t Do a ‘Kissinger’ to Split Europe From America

China has thrown its weight behind Russia’s war in Ukraine, but this has not focused the minds of European leaders as much as it should. From Beijing’s financial lifeline to Moscow to its supplies of vital technology to the Russian arms industry, the “borderless partnership” between China and Russia has very real implications for the war in Ukraine — and for Europe’s future security.

Earlier this year, I argued that Washington’s scaling back of its European defense commitments would tempt Beijing to do a Kissinger-like approach to the transatlantic alliance, showering the EU with gifts to extract it from the US orbit. It’s been a while, so it’s worth checking out how things are going.

China has thrown its weight behind Russia’s war in Ukraine, but this has not focused the minds of European leaders as much as it should. From Beijing’s financial lifeline to Moscow to its supplies of vital technology to the Russian arms industry, the “borderless partnership” between China and Russia has very real implications for the war in Ukraine — and for Europe’s future security.

Early this year, I Argue Washington’s reduction of its commitments to European defense would tempt Beijing to do a Kissinger-like approach to the transatlantic alliance, showering the European Union with gifts to remove it from the American orbit. It’s been a while, so it’s worth checking out how things are going.

In February, RThe Trump administration’s growing hostility toward Europe and public skepticism of U.S. security commitments has sent Chinese diplomats into a flurry of activity in Europe, where they have met with officials. At the Munich Security Conference and in Different capitals. This includes communication For policymakers who previously received little attention due to their critical stance toward China.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, European leaders have been pleading with China to help end the invasion. when US president Donald Trump With Washington’s attention turned away from Europe, China could not have had a better moment to answer this call. Europe was prepared to pay a high price for this assistance. Items on China’s wish list may include guarantees of non-interference in the Indo-Pacific region and increased access to European markets and technology. Becoming a European security guarantor as part of a peace deal brokered by Beijing – a geopolitical concept that was inconceivable until recently – would have been a major breakthrough for China.

Coupled with Europe’s feeling that its traditional transatlantic anchor was beginning to disintegrate, the drift towards China seemed unstoppable. at that time. Europe can barely survive without Chinese rare earth imports, and differences in levels of market access between EU members suggest that parts of Europe were already moving in China’s direction.

Beijing’s influence on Moscow He could It was the basis for wide stay. China has become a major supplier of weapons manufacturing equipment to the Russian war effort, the most recent example of which being those manufactured in China. Ammunition factory in BelarusRussian satrapy. China’s purchases of Russian oil constitute a financial lifeline for the Kremlin. king Beijing used this influence to limit the conflict, could have played a major role in European security and enjoyed significant support in European capitals. king China proved capable to halt It is the largest war in Europe since World War II, and it could have demanded almost any price in future negotiations. There will be resistance to Chinese imports, such as electric cars and 5G communications equipment I collapsed If China had subjugated Russia and assumed the role of guarantor of peace in Europe.

Spain is an early example of how a more Chinese Europe could have looked, as happened in Madrid. unacceptable Washington is pushing to increase defense spending and is instead seeking stronger ties with Beijing. China could assume that as the United States shifted its attention away from Europe, more countries would follow Spain’s example and respond to Chinese initiatives.

But instead of offering Europe carrots, China has redoubled its efforts to provide Russia with sticks. Analysts appreciate this 80 to 90 percent Of Russian military production is produced using Chinese equipment or components. This suggests that if China withdraws its support, Russia will not be able to continue fighting at its current strength Force To compensate for the decreased equipment production by mobilizing a much larger number of its men, reverting to human wave tactics visual During the previous stages of the war.

China has chosen to intervene as much as it can with its sick and weak neighbor. It facilitates aggression and disruption of life in Europe, and has clearly abandoned any attempt to become the continent’s new geopolitical pole.

Perhaps Chinese leaders have calculated that even under the current US administration, breaking Europe’s long-standing transatlantic ties will be extremely difficult. On the other hand, their Russian ally is surrounded. Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot stop the war or even slow it down without risking the stability of his regime. Without Chinese support in the war, he will be forced to tax and mobilize the Russian middle class, which he has so far tried to protect, risking creating broader discontent. He no doubt remembers how public shock over Soviet losses in Afghanistan – including among the families of fallen soldiers – was one of the factors that precipitated the collapse of the Soviet Union, which Putin regrets to this day.

China says its companies are free to sell equipment to Ukraine as well. This is disingenuous in many ways. First, Ukraine receives only civilian components, not the drone and missile parts that Russia receives. Second, China is working to limit the quantity and quality of supplies reaching Ukraine, thus ensuring that Russia maintains its advantage. Giving priority to Russia constitutes a strategic move for China, while Chinese supplies to Ukraine are essentially commercial – and nothing more than a way to profit from Ukraine’s misery.

The ability to influence and perhaps direct Russian military activity in Europe—whether in Ukraine or elsewhere—is a key asset worth preserving and expanding. With Russia’s war in Ukraine and gray zone attacks on NATO countries, Europe’s energies are entirely focused on its own security, making it unlikely that the United States would help in the event of a conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. At the same time, China’s support for Russia gives it leverage over Moscow’s actions.

China may also want to use its new influence over Russia to gain access to the most lucrative parts of the Russian economy. Given China’s essential role in the Russian military economy, it is reasonable to assume that the economy-seeking Kremlin is paying the price with stocks, not cash. If the war continues, it is plausible that China will gain more shares in the Russian economy, eventually targeting its most valuable assets: natural resources.

Western sanctions and long-range attacks by Ukraine limit Russia’s ability to extract and export oil and other commodities. Some damaged facilities can only be rebuilt using Western technology, which Russia is currently prohibited from purchasing. China can help, even if it does not currently produce all the necessary equipment. Once China develops or acquires the technology, it will be able to provide everything Russia needs. Thus, China will capture more of the Russian economy, and Moscow will have little ability to resist.

Finally, the Chinese remember their history. In the 19th century, the expanding Russian Empire seized vast areas of China during the Qing Dynasty. The current Chinese leadership is obsessed with redressing what it calls historical injustices, a justification for its ambitions in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan. So far, China has not been vocal about rectifying its northeastern border. But with China’s influence over Russia growing, the day when Beijing asks Moscow to return Outer Manchuria may come sooner than expected.

Russia’s dependence on China is now almost existential. In the absence of Chinese support, Putin’s regime will be at risk of collapse. This unilateral subordination makes Russia a vassal state of China, an echo of Muscovy’s medieval submission to the Mongols. If China forces Muscovy’s modern successor to provide forces for campaigns in the Indo-Pacific region, the paradox will be complete.

Taking all these developments together, the picture emerges clear. China, despite initial initiatives on both sides, is not interested in reshaping its relationship with Europe. The benefits of supporting Russia against Europe fit Beijing’s long-term strategy much better than the uncertain benefits of close ties with Europe today. China has no interest in bringing peace to Europe or rebuilding Ukraine, as some in Europe had naively hoped. Instead, China is building a politically and economically integrated system with subordinate Russia.

Putin gets clear benefits from this arrangement. Even before the war, the corrupt, authoritarian extractive economy he had established in Russia was unsustainable, and he was never prepared to seriously reform it. To keep his regime politically alive, he offered the Russians a new social contract based on the ambition to restore past imperial glory. The Russians have embraced Putin’s vision of rebuilding an empire, and they don’t seem too concerned about the costs. Now Putin’s legitimacy at home depends on military success and regional expansion. He cannot do this without China’s support.

Washington There is very little to be gained by leaving Europe to the mercy of the world Moscow and Beijing axis. A weak Europe – especially if Russia takes the war beyond Ukraine – will not be able to help the United States. It is entirely plausible that Russia would support China politically, militarily and otherwise in the conflict in the Indo-Pacific region.

Europe no longer faces only Russia, a weak rogue state. Europe Faces An increasingly powerful coalition committed to destroying Western solidarity. China has made its choice knownIt is time for both Europe and the United States to realize the security implications of this this The Sino-Russian axis in Europe Much further.