More than half of industries are already shedding workers, a ‘telling’ sign that’s accompanied past recessions, top economist says

In a series of X publications on Sunday, he continued his warning from last week that the economy is on the brink of recession.

This time, Zandy pointed out that the beginning of the recession is often unclear even after the truth, noting that the National Office for Economic Research is the official rule when one begins and ends.

According to Nber, the recession includes “a significant decrease in economic activity that is spread throughout the economy and lasts for more than a few months.” It also examines a set of indicators, including personal income, employment, consumer spending, sales, and industrial production.

Zandy said that the recruitment data data is largely the most important data point, and it decreases for more than a month in a row that would indicate a decrease. He added that although the work has not started to fall yet, it has almost grown since May.

The salaries were expanded by only 73,000 last month, which is much lower than expectations for about 100,000. At the same time, the May balance has been revised from 144,000 to 19,000, and the June total was reduced from 147,000 to 14,000 only, which means that the average profit during the past three months is now only 35,000.

Since the recent reviews were constantly less, Zandy said he would not be surprised if subsequent reviews showed that employment has already decreased.

He added: “He also says that employment decreases in many industries. In the past, if more than half of the 400 -year -old industries are to scan salary statements get rid of jobs, we were in a stagnation.” “In July, more than 53 % of the industries were cutting their functions, and health care was only the one that adds useful to salary statements.”

Last week, Zandy said the data often sees great reviews when the economy is at a turning point, such as stagnation. On Wednesday, the governor of the Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook, noted that the large reviews are “typical of the transformation points” in the economy.

Currently, the Federal Federal GDP in Atlanta indicates continuous growth, and the third quarter expectations are expected to 2.5 % of 2.1 % last week, although this is still slowing from 3 % in the second quarter.

There are also no signs of collective workers because the weekly fair claims did not slip, and the unemployment rate has almost changed, as it increased in a narrow range ranging between 4 % and 4.2 % for more than a year.

But Zandy said that the unemployment rate would be a “particularly bad scale for stagnation” as the recent decline in the number of workers born abroad kept the workforce.

“Also note that the recession is defined by a continuous decrease in jobs – the decrease continues for at least a few months. We are not there yet, and therefore we are not in the recession,” I explained. “It is still possible that things will be transformed if the economic policies that weigh the economy soon. But this seems increasingly unlikely.”

Wall Street is divided into what job data says, as some analysts attribute the slowdown to the weak demand for employment, while others blame the offer of weak workers amid the campaign of president Donald Trump’s migration.

The Bank Of America is located in the supply camp and said, “The markets are confused between stagnation.” But UBS warned of poor demand, noting that the average work week is less than 2019 levels, and said the labor market shows signs of “stalling speed”.

Last week, the economists in JPMorgan also seemed to warn a possible contraction. They pointed out that job data show that employment in the private sector may cool with an average of 52,000 in the past three months, with sectors stopping outside health and education.

Besides the absence of any signs that unwanted separation is increasing due to the immigration policy, this is a strong indication that the commercial demand for employment may cool.

Jpmorgan added: “We have constantly emphasized that the slide in the demand for employment of this size is a warning signal.” “Companies usually maintain employment gains through the growth processes that they consider transient. In the episodes where the demand for employment is sliding with low growth, it is often like a provision for a reduction.”

Submit 2025 Fortune Global 500The final ranking of the largest companies in the world. Explore this year’s list.