Written by Mike Dolan
LONDON (Reuters) – What matters in the United States and global markets today
Written by Mike Dolan, editor, man, financial industry and financial markets
Like most of its central bankers, the Federal Reserve is likely to sit at his hands at this week’s meeting, blind by many winds from American economic policy and plans for high tariffs.
Despite all the fog of politics and transformations in the market, though, nothing has changed during the past month: investors still believe that the large technology trade is very crowded. I will discuss this and the rest of the market news today below.
Market accurate today
* Many American national security agencies have suspended some efforts to counter Russian sabotage, misinformation and electronic attacks, and may raise some pressure from Moscow, according to the exclusive Reuters reports.
* An American federal judge prevented billionaire Elon Musk from taking any other steps to close the United States Agency for International Development, saying that their efforts to close the foreign relief agency are unconstitutional.
* Stock markets and tightening credit signs may make the federal reserve mission more difficult as policymakers are zero in consumer spending.
* Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to a temporary stop of the attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, but he stopped shooting for 30 days in the wake of a phone call with Donald Trump.
* The Bank of Japan has maintained fixed interest rates, as politicians buy themselves time to find out how the possibility of an American tariff can affect the economy that focuses on exporting their country.
Political fog forces feed on the margin
The Wall Street novels on Tuesday had to lead more severe losses for major technology. This contradicts the strong gains in Europe and Hong Kong, where global investors continue to rotate their stockpiles in a feverish way.
Germany’s defense of the defense and the massive financial motivation on the green light from Bundestag on Tuesday, is scheduled to pass the House of Representatives at the end of the weekend by the weekend.
But most of the markets around the world stopped on Wednesday, most likely because investors are waiting to hear whether central banks can see anything through fog.
While federal reserve monitors do not expect any change in politics from President Jerome Powell and his team later on Wednesday, all eyes will be in economic expectations and updated quarterly prices.
Currently, futures contracts have more than two cuts in the prices of the federal reserve category at their price per year – basically what the Federal Reserve has indicated three months ago – and the next step is unexpected until June or July.
Investors will also maintain signs of a tab close to the FBI data about the constant public budget, which may temporarily stop temporarily in the debt ceiling in congress.
Before the Federal Reserve’s decision, US stock futures, and the privacy of the treasury and the dollar all hold.
Fears about economic shrinkage were partially calmed down by issuing positive American industry numbers and housing beginnings for the month of February on Tuesday, which contradicts more disturbing business scanning data. Oil prices, which are now affiliated with annual basis on an annual basis, have also helped calm nervous investors.
The yen fell in Japan when the Bank of Japan held the line in the “normalization” of its policy, which led to another rise in its main rate, citing uncertainty about a global trade war looming on the horizon.
He was disappointed by President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Ukraine, where Putin was partially disappointed about the Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Elsewhere, the currency of Türkiye, stocks and bonds retreated after the authorities detained President Tayeb Erdogan’s opponent on charges of corruption and assisting a terrorist group, while the opposition launched a “coup attempt.”
Meanwhile, gold prices continued to rise.
Now on deep diving about crowded trade that still keep investors at night.
The large technology is still very crowded
Stock corrections are often just realistic tests that ultimately allow Taurus markets as “buying investors”, but this time, global asset managers seem to be wary of returning to the great technology giant in Wall Street.
Investors may be spinning after a turbulent month of introductory anxiety, American recession concerns, 10 % in S&P 500 and financial restart in Europe. The Upheaval portfolio scale was arrested on Tuesday by the Director of the Monthly Funds Department at the American America.
The poll, closely monitored for global asset managers, showed the largest decrease for one month in exposure to American stocks in the history of the survey for a period of 25 years-a significant decrease in 40 points, leaving a net 23 % of the respondents now.
And if you are wondering where this money went, search via the pond. The allocations for euro area shares jumped 27 points, with 39 % of weight gain now – the highest level in four years.
So far, even via Atlantic.
But for those who believe that shrinkage tensions in the United States are exaggerated, or that business and consumers surveys do not correspond to the solid factory data or retail sale, this may seem a good moment to occur.
However, the MARCH survey has offered a lot to chew, while highlighting Smorgasbord from other concerns about the wrong American commercial and economic policies, global growth risks, recession concerns, and the ongoing aversion to bonds that gave interest rate and debt anxiety.
More worrying to optimistic in the stock market, investors still believe that the so-called “Seven Magnificent Seven” Mega Mega is very owned-even after one of the worst four weeks with 5 % in the collective evaluation of Apple, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Meta and Meta and Meta and Meta and Meta and Meta Tesla.
In the twenty -fourth month in a row, asset managers set “Tech Big Long” as the most crowded trade on this planet.
Crowded
It is easy to re -identify that it has been repeatedly recognized as “the busiest trade” over the past two years has not stopped doubling the total “Mag 7” in that period.
Even if the price/profits evaluations remain forward for the heavy technical NASDAQ vehicle, it is the lowest level in five years for the total S&P 500.
However, there is a turning point for everything, and there are two main reasons for information technology that can still be considered very crowded.
The first is that the American economic turmoil compels unprecedented stimulation in Europe and China, where stock market rates are much cheaper than Wall Street. For many, the global “value trade” may be very attractive to ignore it.
Stoxx 600 in Europe is still trading with a huge discount of 36 % on the S&P 500, even after the last rotation, and the front PE remains approximately 50 % cheaper than NASDAQ 100.
Although Deepseek’s development in China this year has led to the speculation of Hong Kong shares, it is still 55 % cheaper than the S&P 500.
The second reason that may be moved in major technology is further than that is what happens in the federal reserve. Large technology shares have been isolated from recession fears due to the interest rate sensitivity. They are “long -term” shares, which means that their assessments are inadvertently benefiting from low stock discount rates.
But the threats of customs tariffs that lead fear this time can actually exacerbate hot inflation, such as growth. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve may be more bound than it was now in the past, thus getting rid of a possible stagnation store in the technology sector.
What is not in doubt is the amount of these huge hats that the emerging market called due to the huge size of the index weight. MAG 7 shares still combined are approximately 30 % of the maximum S&P 500 market. So pulling on technology is now risk being a large traction on the same amount on the entire complex.
Mangers voted global origins with their feet already – and you may reasonably see that the image of the United States is very chaotic for the foreseeable future.
Today’s scheme
The White House said on Tuesday that US President Donald Trump still intends to enter the new mutual tariff rates on April 2, despite the previous comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Payette, which indicated a possible delay in activating it. The American commercial actor Jamieson Greer and his employees were struggling with how to design mutual definitions, given that both members of the World Customs Organization 186 have different work rates.
Today’s events to watch
* Politics decision in the Federal Market Committee in the Federal Market in the United States, its statement and the modernization of the quarterly economic expectations, with a press conference from the President of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell
* TIC data in January on foreign holdings of the treasury papers
* European Central Bank Vice President Lewis de Gindus speaks in Madrid
* American companies: General Mills, progressive
The views expressed are the views of the author. It does not reflect the opinions of Reuters news, which, according to the principles of confidence, is committed to integrity, independence and liberation from bias.
(Written by Mike Dolan; Editing by Anna Sizymanski)
