NATO leaders want to appease Trump, but defense spending agreement ‘would be just crazy for Europeans,’ foreign policy expert says

On Sunday, NATO members agreed to raise their defensive spending to 5 % of the total local products (GDP) by 2035, which is a noticeable increase in the commitment by 2 % that has existed since 2014. Trump had previously demanded that the spending targets be included on 4 % of GDP in 2018. Experts tell the experts. luck While the efforts made to pledge billions of dollars in defense spending over the next decade, some countries will be achieved by some countries, it may not be possible for others.

Details of the agreement pledged 3.5 % of the gross domestic product that will be placed towards the “basic” defense, with compensation for 1.5 % of the gross domestic product to the investment related to security, “including in infrastructure and flexibility,” according to NATO. To put percentage in its right quorum, NATO estimates that the UK spent 2.33 % of GDP, or 82.1 billion dollars, in 2024.

Experts say that the Sunday agreement may be more than a political play than the promise, as European countries aim to appease Trump and strengthen the coalition amid geopolitical turmoil.

“Five percent will be just madness for the Europeans,” Liana Islah, a colleague of the Foreign Relations Council in Europe, told Europe. luck. Although reform says 3.5 % of GDP is a realistic estimate to meet many member states.

“Most European countries have not spent 5 % (from gross domestic product) in the Cold War,” said Fix. “It is clear that this is not only difficult to communicate with European electoral districts, but also something that can still lead to a controversial discussion with Donald Trump if he realizes that 1.5 % is not in fact the type of real defensive spending he demanded from Europeans.”

FIX expects leaders to detail more than what can be under 1.5 % of GDP and determines the “division between 3.5 % and 1.5 %” during the NATO summit, which you attend.

Experts say the agreement will not be supported by all member states.

((Al -Itifaq) is not a single measurement that fits everything, “said Jean -Takau, the director of Europe at the Eurasia Group, said, said. luck. “In theory, it should be, because this is the idea of ​​everything: an equal commitment by everyone. But in reality, this was never the case.”

Fix said that the 5 % goal was fully designed to purify Trump, who published a screenshot of a special message verified by NATO Secretary -General Mark Retty to the social truth on Tuesday. “You will achieve something that no American president can accomplish for decades,” said Roti’s message, which was confirmed by the NATO press office. “Europe will pay in a big way, as it should, and it will be your victory.”

“Frankly (NATO Convention is) a classic compromise, which was clearly designed by Secretary -General Mark Root,” luck. “It is clear that he is a former long -term European president who understands how this game is very well played.”

Reforming NATO leaders hoped that Trump will remain in a good mood throughout his visit.

“The idea of ​​this summit is in fact that Donald Trump gives a victory bosom, to tell him,” We have reached this point. We do it. ”He said,“ To avoid any controversial problem on the agenda. ”

On his way to the top, Trump questioned the principle of NATO alliance, and refused to adhere to Article 5 – the collective defense agreement between member states. When one of the reporters asked if he was committed to the paragraph, Trump replied: “He relies on your definition. There are many definitions of the fifth article. Did you know that, right?”

Article 5 states that if a NATO ally is attacked, then each other member state “will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members”, and will take measures to help the country, according to the NATO website.

While the Unified Front that welcomes Trump in The Hague may give priority to preserving the NATO alliance, 23 of 32 organic countries have reached 2 % of the threshold of GDP – experts believe that some of them will reach 5 % or before 2035.

US defense financing was 2.7 % in 2024, about to decrease the record, according to the US Department of Defense. NATO data records 2024 US spending on defense is just less than 3.5 %.

“The effects of the ripples on the American economy are likely to be negative,” Kerkegarad said of the NATO agreement. ”

Countries specified to meet the new goal

The Cabinet in Germany agreed to the 2025 budget project and the budget framework for the year 2026 that the details are planning to reach 3.5 % of GDP in the basic defense spending by 2029, six years before NATO goal by 5 %.

(Germany) wants (s) to become a poster for how Europe can increase its capabilities, “said Techau from the Euroasia Group collection luck.

The CFR reform said that the country is really good “to achieve the plan, because it contains low debts and can increase defensive spending through loans and take more debts.

Poland’s defensive spending was 4.2 % in 2024 and is expected to rise to 4.7 % in 2025, according to NATO.

Takao said that countries close to Russia like Poland, the Baltic countries, and some Scandinavian countries are more committed to reaching the target of targeted spending – Kierkegaard says this trend is not surprising “given the sharp military threat posed by Russia to Europe.”

The two countries are unlikely to reach the goal

Spain pushed the deal. Reuters said on Sunday that Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez says Madrid will not have to achieve a 5 % goal because he will only have to spend 2.1 % of GDP to meet the basic military requirements of NATO.

“They are facing a problem with Spain,” Trump said on Tuesday. “Always a problem with Spain. Spain does not agree, which is very fair to them.”

UK Prime Minister Kiir Starmer said the country should “actively prepare” the war, and pledged to spend. Kirkegaard said that although the country “will challenge” to reach this goal.

“The financial challenges are likely to be more severe in the United Kingdom and France as well as in Italy, Spain,” said Kirkgard.

However, European countries are looking to find solutions to withdraw the potential American forces from the region.

“He is completely involved in European intelligence estimates that say whether the Ukraine war has ended tomorrow, Russia will start preparing for a wider war against” one or more members of NATO members. ”

He said: “For Europe is unable to defend itself against Russia today, without either Ukraine or the United States, this is a very unpleasant situation.”