‘Who’ll pay taxes when I’m 80?’: Sanjeev Sanyal warns India risks ageing before it’s ready

India enters a stage of demographic transition that requires urgent attention – not the celebration – Sanjeev Sanyal, a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Consultative Council. In a large -scale conversation on neon podcasts, Sanyal dismantled the joint narration of India is the “smallest country in the world”, pointing to a sharp decrease and unnstrued in fertility rates.

“We are no longer the smallest country in the world,” Saniel said. “There are young countries in Africa, in the Philippines, Pakistan. We are in the stage of demographic profits, yes – but this window is not less than 25 years.

Sanyal raised concerns about the mindset of the outdated population in India. “We still have to combat populations in many parts of the country,” he pointed out, although the total fertility rate in India (TFR) has already decreased less than the replacement levels. “You must joke with me – we must close it everywhere, including Up and BIHAR.”

While most demographic refers to 2.1 as TFR at the replacement level, Sanyal has argued that the sustainable India rate is above 2.3 to 2.4-to remaining structural imbalances, including historically deviant sex rates and high child deaths in some areas. National TFR is currently in India at 1.9 – and fall.

“The only reason that makes it at 1.9 is that the hide and the highest still have a high fertility,” he explained. “If you take the rest of the country, this is much lower. There are parts of India with fertility at the Japanese level now.”

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Sanyal warned southern states of political preparation for migration from north to south. “Instead of complaining about rising fertility rates, they should try to increase their own. Bihar will also decline to less than the replacement in the non -distant future.”

On the global level, no country has succeeded in contrast to the decrease in fertility as soon as it decreased to the bottom of the replacement. “In South Korea, it decreased to 0.6. In one generation, their population can shrink by two thirds.”

As for the argument that less people mean the quality of life better, Sanyal has retreated: “The quality of India’s life with 1.4 billion people today is much higher than it was in independence. It relates to how we use and spread people.”

He added: “I do not invite to return to having five children. I just say – if we have a very few children, we will get old without a young generation to pay taxes and keep the system. Who will keep the roads when I am 80 years old? These people must be born first.”