No Winners in Thailand-Cambodia Border Dispute – Foreign Policy

When tensions rose for the first time between Thai armies and Kambudia along their common borders in May, both governments seemed to benefit from the mutation in simple nationalism. Instead, the ruling Thailand alliance is left suspended through a thread, with the prime minister’s suspension on the first of July by the country’s constitutional court. The Prime Minister in Cambodia was overwhelmed by his father, who is still a power.

On May 28, the shots came out along the border, where Thai soldiers say they faced their counterparts as a trenches in a disputed area between Brehah Province in Cambodia and the Thai Cate City province, in violation of the 2000 memorandum of understanding between the two countries. Both sides claim that the other was shot first, but there is one clear thing: the Kambodi soldier was killed on the stock exchange.

When tensions rose for the first time between Thai armies and Kambudia along their common borders in May, both governments seemed to benefit from the mutation in simple nationalism. Instead, the ruling Thailand alliance is left suspended through a thread, with the prime minister’s suspension on the first of July by the country’s constitutional court. The Prime Minister in Cambodia was overwhelmed by his father, who is still a power.

On May 28, the shots came out along the border, where Thai soldiers say they faced their counterparts as a trenches in a disputed area between Brehah Province in Cambodia and the Thai Cate City province, in violation of the 2000 memorandum of understanding between the two countries. Both sides claim that the other was shot first, but there is one clear thing: the Kambodi soldier was killed on the stock exchange.

The leaders of the two countries were quick to take advantage of the moment with the wonderful speech.

“Thailand is united. We will not tolerate ill -treatment, accusations or threats from any party. Our country has dignity as well. Our country is also strong,” said Thai Prime Minister Paitongtarn Shinawatra. When thousands of people gathered in Bennah in response to the incident, the Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manit wrote that Cambodia did not want the war but was ready to “use all the means to protect its regional safety”, including strength.

Hoon Manit – the eldest son of former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who ruled Cambodia with an iron fist for more than 30 years – is accelerating his political career during a fatal border conflict with Thailand who started in 2008. He played a prominent role during the clashes that year on the preh vihear temple, who killed about 40 people on both attendees. Ultimately, the International Court of Justice ruled that the temple, which was built by the Khmer Empire, belonged to Cambodia, but the court did not repeat the border.

The last engagement site is not particularly strategic, and does not contain a site of cultural value like Preah Vihear. But due to grievances on the lost lands at different points in history-in the case of Thailand to the colonial powers, and in the case of Cambodia due to the collapse of the Khmer Empire, which once controlled a large part of Thailand in the modern era-it could not retreat.

“Just as Thai Nationalists Are Sensitive to their Past Treatment by EuroPean Powers, Cambodian Nationalists Are Touchy about Being Looked Download uphon and Disrespeted by their More PowerFul NeighBors, “Said Sebastian Strangio, The Author of Hun Sen Cambodia.

Paetongtarn, 38, Hun Manit, 47, both of whom are the sons of former prime ministers, but they have not done much to distinguish themselves since his rise to the highest offices of their countries in 2024 and 2023, respectively. They may have seen the deadly accident on the border as an opportunity to prove themselves.

The diplomatic incident also presented an opportunity for the non -popular army in Thailand to restore some general preferences. The generals overthrew the abolition of two elected governments: one of which was led by the father of Bittlenten, Thaxin Shinwatra, in 2006; Another led by her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, in 2014, which nourishes a decade of political chaos. By preventing the youth -led reformist party from forming a government in 2023, the army strengthened public discontent.

Finally, Clash gave the border a possible opportunity to cooperate between the anti -Thai policy factions. The government of Paetongtarn is an unlikely and unstable alliance between its Popular Party PHEU and the THAKSIN enemies for a long time, among some other parties.

Although the two sides differ strongly on issues inside Thailand, they found a common ground on international issues, such as drug trafficking across borders, the conflict in neighboring Myanmar, and immigration. But instead of combining the factions together, the recent border conflict with Cambodia neglected Paetongtarn and left its government on his last legs after the largest conservative party left the ruling alliance.

The tensions were already brewing inside the coalition before the border engagement. The Medical Council in Thailand Thaksin was under investigation due to allegations that he had lied about his health to evade prison time when he returned to the country in 2023 after 15 years of self -exile. At that time, he was placed in the hospital due to heart disease and high blood pressure, as it remained for six months until it is pardoned.

The investigation and the case of the subsequent Supreme Court are likely to be in response to the recent Reaxen Recalm to Thai policy, assuming a very clear role in the campaigns in the regional elections this year and taking the initiative in peace efforts with separatists in the southern deep in the country. In a poll published last year, 42.9 percent of the respondents said that Thaxin was the most influential person in Thai policy, although no official position was held in the government.

Meanwhile, the PHEU party tried to control the powerful Ministry of Interior in the country away from its conservative coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai party, which is subject to its members to investigate the purchase of alleged votes in the Senate elections last year. The loss of control of the Ministry of Interior would have made the party and its officials more vulnerable to legal procedures.

The Bhumjaithai party was already threatening to abandon the coalition in response to the investigation – then came the phone call that shook the Thai policy to its essence. On June 18, a registration was leaked to a call between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen through Cambodian media; During the conversation, Paetongtarn criticized the Thai army, and referred to Hun Sen as “uncle”, and promised “care” of anything that the former Cambodian leader wanted.

Hun Sen has the date of the launch of the registered invitations to undermine its political opponents, but the leak was a sudden development due to the previous warm relationships between the Shinawatra and Hun Sen family, who protected Thaxin and Yingluk after fleeing from Thailand. During a visit to the Thai border, Hun Sen pressed when he threatened evidence of Thaksin’s insult to the Thai king-a serious crime carrying up to 15 years in prison.

Strangio, the author, called for the phenomenon of Hun Sen’s phenomenon for the “confusing” Shinwatra family. He said: “I think, as the proverb says, Hun Sen does not have permanent friends, only permanent interests.” “Given the unbalanced balance in the military and economic power between Thailand and Cambodia, the leakage was an asymmetric way to exploit the greatest responsibility of Thailand: its unstable local policies and the Menax.”

Hun Sen may have concluded a deal with Thailand governors. His relationship with Thaxin is always outside the place. Although he has a complex heritage, Thaxin is a democratic, rebel politician who challenged the authoritarian institution in Thailand. Hun Sen, on the other hand, is the essence of Southeast Asia, tyranny.

Paetongtarn’s criticism of the military and rejoice position towards Hun Sen amid the border conflict in a stir in Thailand, especially between conservatives and nationalists. Bhumjaithai’s withdrawal from the ruling coalition left the Prime Minister with a very narrow parliamentary majority even before its suspension. It is somewhat surprising that the Thai Nation Party linked to the army remained in the alliance. Party leaders may feel a chance to influence, given the position of prime minister desperate and that many of the cabinets’ positions are to seize.

But the survival of Paetongtarn has not yet guaranteed. The Bhumjaithai party called for a vote for no confidence, while the National Corruption Committee in Thailand has opened an investigation into the incident. On July 1, the Constitutional Court voted on Paetongtarn’s comment because it reviews a case to remove it from his post. It faces great pressure to resign.

Hun Sen predicted in a Facebook post that Thailand would have a new prime minister within three months. But his burned tactics may have sang his son. After all, the accident highlighted the authority behind the throne in Cambodia. For nearly two years at the presidency of Hun Manit, a few composer or competitors see as the true leader of the country. (The international media has certainly taken Hun Sen braid: in its coverage of the border conflict, New York Times It was called “a leader in reality in Cambodia”.

If the 2008 border crisis begins at the beginning of his political profession in Manit, the current crisis has shown its strength. The Cambodian Prime Minister was traveling in Japan on a diplomatic trip when he began the clash and then set out to France for the UN Order Conference. Hun Sen appears to have outperformed his opponents in Thailand only that Hun Manit lacks the same cruelty.

In recent days, the border conflict has escalated beyond the Suf of Saber. On June 24, Thailand closed the border crossings to Cambodia, affecting millions of tourists and migrant workers. Cambodia banned fuel and Thai gasoline imports, at a value of about $ 1.5 billion last year, as well as fruits and vegetables.

The victory could be by winning Thai and Kambodian leaders had only become a losing issue for all concerned-with the increasingly people who fell in the middle.