November jobs report: US economy added 50K jobs amid economic uncertainty

The US economy added jobs in November as economic uncertainty continues to dampen activity in the labor market.

The Labor Department reported on Tuesday that employers Adding 64 thousand jobs in November, a figure that was higher than the estimate of 50,000 economists polled by LSEG.

the Unemployment rate The inflation rate rose to 4.6% for November, higher than the 4.4% rate that economists had expected. The unemployment rate of 4.6% is the highest since September 2021.

Job gains in the two months prior to the employment report were revised downward. Employment in August was revised down by 22,000 from a loss of 4,000 jobs to a loss of 26,000 jobs. While September was revised down by 11,000 jobs from an increase of 119,000 jobs to 108,000 jobs.

Combined, hiring in August and September was 33,000 fewer jobs than previously reported.

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The November jobs report was originally scheduled to be released on December 5, but was delayed due to a 43-day government shutdown that extended into November and affected the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data collection. The shutdown also prevented the release of the October jobs report, although the Bureau of Labor Statistics included some data from that month in the latest release.

Employment in October fell by 105,000 jobs, with the private sector adding 52,000 jobs and the government cutting 157,000 jobs for the month. Federal workers who accepted deferred buyouts earlier in the year, such as those offered by DOGE, were counted as employees until they were officially recorded as having left their jobs in October.

The BLS was unable to produce the unemployment rate for October.

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Private payrolls added 69,000 jobs in November, above LSEG’s estimate of 45,000 jobs.

Government payrolls shrank in November by 5,000 jobs, after a larger decline in October. This included the loss of 6,000 federal jobs and 2,000 local government jobs, a decline that was partially offset by the addition of 3,000 state government jobs.

The manufacturing sector lost 5,000 jobs in November, in line with economists’ expectations.

Health care companies added 46,300 jobs, which is largely in line with the average monthly gain of 39,000 jobs over the previous 12 months. These gains were distributed among ambulatory healthcare services (+24,000), hospitals (+11,400), and nursing and residential care facilities (+10,900).

The construction industry added 28,000 jobs in November after being little changed over the previous 12 months. Most job gains were among non-residential specialty trade contractors (+18,700).

Social assistance companies added 17,700 jobs for the month, while the transportation and warehousing sector lost 17,700 jobs in November.

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The labor force participation rate was little changed at 62.5% in November, after changing little over the past year.

The number of long-term unemployed, defined as those out of work for 27 weeks or more, was little changed at 1.9 million in November and represented 24.3% of all unemployed.

The number of people working part-time for economic reasons reached 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These workers would have preferred to work full-time but their hours were reduced, or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted the impact of the government shutdown on the upcoming jobs report after the Fed’s meeting last week. (Kent Nishimura/Getty Images)

“An incomplete and unconventional jobs report may always need an asterisk attached to it, but it still paints a sobering picture of a labor market that may officially turn cold after a long lull,” said Laura Ulrich, director of economic research at the Realistic Employment Lab.

“The two-month combined report shows a notable decline in employment in October, as tens of thousands of government employees who remained on the payroll over the summer finally came off the payroll as buyout deals took effect,” Ulrich noted.

“The Fed is unlikely to attach much weight to today’s report given the data disruptions,” said Kai Hai, global co-head of fixed income and liquidity solutions at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.

“Chairman Powell “Haig commented last week that the report was likely to be affected by distortions associated with the shutdown, making it a less reliable measure of the health of the labor market than usual. The December employment data report, which was released in early January before the next meeting, is likely to be a more important indicator for the Fed when it comes to setting a near-term course,” Hay said.

The release of November employment data and the partial October release did little to change the market’s view that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its February meeting.

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The probability of interest rates remaining at their current target range of 3.5% to 3.75% was 75.6% as of Tuesday morning, unchanged from the previous day and up from 69.8% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool.