October jobs report among key economic data delayed by government shutdown

The ongoing government shutdown has disrupted the flow of economic data from federal agencies, and the October jobs report is the latest closely watched report that has been delayed due to the impasse.

Most workers at the Labor Department and other federal agencies responsible for producing economic reports have been furloughed since the shutdown began on October 1. The impasse extended into November, becoming the longest shutdown in US history and delaying further economic data reports in the process.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics was scheduled to release its October jobs report on Friday, but the agency has not returned to normal operations due to the shutdown.

The October employment report is the latest economic report to be delayed due to the lockdown, as the September jobs report was scheduled to be released just days after the lockdown began. The Commerce Department’s GDP report was also delayed as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

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The Trump administration has temporarily brought back some workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics so they can complete the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, where inflation data is used in calculating Social Security’s annual cost of living adjustment, which is legally required to be released before the end of October.

It remains unclear when lawmakers in congress and President Donald Trump will reach an agreement to end the shutdown, or how quickly agencies can resume publishing economic data releases — though timelines for previous shutdowns offer some ideas about how quickly delayed reports will be published.

The private sector added 42,000 jobs better than expected in October

The 2013 government shutdown prevented the release of the September jobs report of that year, which had been scheduled for October 4. After the government shutdown ended on October 17, the report was released less than a week later on October 22.

A similar delay occurred in early 1996, when the December 1995 jobs report was supposed to be released in early January but was delayed until mid-month due to the shutdown.

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell compared the lack of official economic data for policymakers to “driving in the fog,” although he noted that private data could provide some insights. (Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images/Getty Images)

Economists at Goldman Sachs noted that based on the experience of the 2013 government shutdown, they expect that if the government reopens in mid-November, the September jobs report will be released a few days after the shutdown ends.

However, they said the October jobs report would not be expected until early December in this scenario.

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The Goldman report also noted that after previous shutdowns, the following month’s data releases were delayed by about a week to allow staff more time to process the data. If the shutdown ends in the next few weeks, it could delay the November jobs report beyond its scheduled release date of December 5.