EV Armageddon? Tesla, GM, Ford EV sales will be cut in half when tax credit expires, analyst says.

0 3 minutes read

EV Armageddon Tesla GM Ford EV sales will be cut.jpeg

Electric vehicle makers such as Tesla, GM (GM) and Ford (F) will be in a world of pain when the “OBB’s” (OBB) law ends for President Trump later this month. EVS sales in the United States are expected to be reduced in half compared to the current levels, at least, according to one analyst with great grade.

The new instructions provided by the IRS service provides some of the spaces of EV buyer for delivery after the deadline on September 30. But once these deals are completed, EV’s transfer can be a difficult offer.

Karl Praor, CEO of Isecars.com, said that people who want to buy one will jump before the deadline on September 30.

But then is very slope sales.

“I think after that … we’ll see a very significant decrease,” said Praire. “I can see us [market share] It decreased much less than 4 % immediately after the incentive of September 30, and it may settle at the beginning of 2026, about 4 %. “

See out below: A selection of 2025 GMC Sierra EV Denali pick-up, which is fully electric cars, at GMC/Hummer Truck, Friday, 18 July 2025, in Manchester, NH (AP Photo/Charles Krupa) · Associated Press

The market share will be 4 % EV half the place where you are now. COX Automotive reported that the increase in demand for EV has already paid the EV market share in August to 9.1 %, with 20 % sales on an annual basis for this month to more than 130 kV that was sold with buyers rush before tax credit ends.

Barir – who spent 19 years as a major editor in Edmonds, and the executive publisher of Autotrader KBB, among other publications – believes that the situation is comfortable for EVS, at least compared to other studies.

Last year, an analysis was found by a professor of the University of California at Berkeley Joseph Shapiro that EV sales in the United States would decrease by 27 % if the Federal tax credit is removed, compared to the scenario with the applicable credit.

Read more: Tesla insurance: how to shop and provide

Not surprisingly, thanks to the rush to take advantage of the incentives, General Motors reported on Tuesday that its sales in August are a new monthly record – more than 21000 EVS was sold under its Chevy, Cadillac and GMC brands.

“There is no doubt that we will see a decrease in sales EV in the next quarter after the end of the tax credits on September 30, and it may take several months. However, we believe that General Motors can continue to grow the market share of EV,” General Motors, Denkan Aldrid said in a statement.

Isecars’ Brauer believes that General Motors and others will try to maintain sales momentum by moving to margins with the opponent.