France’s Failure in Mali Has Resulted in the Risk of Jihadi Takeover

US President Donald Trump has a habit of exaggerating barely-there threats while ignoring real disasters unfolding in plain sight. His recent claims that the presence of Christians are under threat in Nigeria are greatly exaggerated – the reality in Africa’s most populous country is complex, with Muslims and Christians alike suffering from violence. But while Trump focuses on an imaginary problem, a very real catastrophe is coming to a head in Mali, where Al Qaeda-affiliated militants are strangling the capital as the country teeters on the brink of becoming the first country ruled by Osama bin Laden’s heirs.

This should get the president’s attention. Not only because a financial collapse would send shockwaves across the Sahel and beyond, destabilizing the already volatile region and creating new havens for terrorist groups. But also because the main culprit of this debacle is someone Trump likes to invoke with disdain: French President Emmanuel Macron.

US President Donald Trump has a habit of exaggerating barely-there threats while ignoring real disasters unfolding in plain sight. His recent claims that the presence of Christians are under threat in Nigeria are greatly exaggerated – the reality in Africa’s most populous country is complex, with Muslims and Christians alike suffering from violence. But while Trump focuses on an imaginary problem, a very real catastrophe is coming to a head in Mali, where Al Qaeda-affiliated militants are strangling the capital as the country teeters on the brink of becoming the first country ruled by Osama bin Laden’s heirs.

This should get the president’s attention. Not only because a financial collapse would send shockwaves across the Sahel and beyond, destabilizing the already volatile region and creating new havens for terrorist groups. But also because the main culprit of this debacle is someone Trump likes to invoke with disdain: French President Emmanuel Macron.

France’s failure in Mali represents one of the most dramatic examples of strategic impotence in recent memory. The consequences threaten the wider world.

The situation on the ground is dangerous. The Group to Support Islam and Muslims, a jihadi alliance affiliated with Al-Qaeda, effectively besieged the capital, Bamako, ambushing fuel convoys and cutting off supply routes. Long lines at gas stations. Schools are closed. Western embassies are urging their nationals to flee. The militants have demonstrated an ominous new sophistication, using drones and conducting coordinated operations across hundreds of miles. This is no longer a disheveled rebellion; It is an incipient state in the making.

How did we get to this abyss? The answer lies in a decade of French arrogance, tactical myopia, and postcolonial arrogance.

When Paris launched Operation Serval in 2013 to repel jihadists advancing on Bamako, it was hailed as an immediate success. French forces recaptured the major cities and regained government control. But as analysts at the London-based Royal United Services Institute have documented, this victory has proven to be an illusion. Armed groups have only dispersed, changing their strategy to a more widespread population-centred insurgency, entrenching itself in local communities and exploiting inter-communal conflicts.

France’s response — Operation Barkhane, a sprawling regional counter-terrorism campaign that began in 2014 — doubles down on the flawed approach. Instead of addressing underlying sectarian conflicts and protecting targeted populations, France has maintained its aggressive counterterrorism stance, pursuing armed groups and neutralizing their leaders whenever possible. The result? Violence has increased dramatically, with the number of violent incidents increasing by 70 percent in 2021 alone, tens of thousands killed and more than 2.5 million people displaced.

But France’s strategic failures were exacerbated by something far more sinister: a stifling colonial legacy. France’s perceived sovereignty, derived from its colonial past and powerful army, shaped popular expectations – and many Malians could not understand how the former colonial power was unable to defeat local armed groups. This cognitive dissonance has fueled conspiracy theories and anti-French sentiment that the junta skillfully exploited after seizing power in 2020.

Macron’s inconsistency has made matters worse. France bombed rebel convoys in support of Idriss Deby in Chad in 2019, then supported his son’s unconstitutional power grab in 2021, while at the same time lecturing Mali’s junta about democratic standards. It was impossible for Malians to accept the double standards.

The French left in August 2022, leaving a void that Russian mercenaries – first Wagner, now the African Legion – failed to fill. Russian forces have suffered heavy casualties and alienated large segments of the population through brutal tactics, including summary executions of ethnic Fulani civilians.

Now Mali faces the unthinkable: becoming the first country ruled by Al Qaeda in the terrorist network’s four-decade history.

The wider world cannot afford this outcome. Mali’s fall would ripple across the Sahel, with Burkina Faso – already devastated by violence – likely to be next. The militants have already claimed responsibility for their first attack in Nigeria, and are exploiting illicit economies across the tri-border region between Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso and Ghana. The effects extend far beyond West Africa. The establishment of a terrorist state in Mali would turn into a magnet for jihadists around the world and a training ground to launch attacks on Europe and beyond.

Trump enjoys nothing more than shaming European leaders for their failures. This would be one example where it would be completely justified. Macron’s misadventure in Mali has created a rising storm that threatens to engulf an entire region. France broke it, and France must lead efforts to fix it.

Macron should take the lead in cleaning up the mess plaguing France. This requires Paris to commit real resources, not just rhetoric. It will also require engaging regional powers – the ECOWAS countries and the African Union – rather than marginalizing them. Finally, it will require recognizing that combating terrorism in the absence of political solutions is worthless, a lesson the United States learned in Iraq and Afghanistan and the French seem to need to learn again in the Sahel.

The alternative – watching Mali become Al Qaeda’s first conquest – is unimaginable.