Optimism with caveats: Bill Gates on AI, global aid and the world’s next two decades

Despite an era of polarization, climate risks and rapid technological disruption, Bill Gates says he remains optimistic about the world’s long-term future. Humanity remains on a positive path, provided it addresses some critical challenges head-on, the Microsoft co-founder and billionaire philanthropist wrote in a blog post on Friday.

“We are much better off than we were when I was born 70 years ago,” Gates wrote, noting breakthroughs in technology and global health that have dramatically improved living standards around the world. He believes that the next two decades could bring further progress, especially as artificial intelligence accelerates innovation.

“I remain optimistic because I see what innovation accelerated by AI will bring,” he wrote. But Gates also admitted that his optimism now “comes with footnotes.”

A warning about generosity and global inequality

One of Gates’ biggest concerns is whether a richer world will still be generous to those who need it most. He cited a troubling prediction from a Gates Foundation report released in December: Global deaths of children under the age of five are expected to rise by about 200,000 in 2025 — the first increase in 25 years.

“It is the projected statistics that trouble me most,” Gates wrote, blaming the decline largely on sharp cuts in global aid budgets by major governments, including the United States.

“Over the past 25 years, these deaths have declined faster than at any other time in history. But in 2025, they have risen for the first time this century,” he noted, warning that this trend will continue unless aid spending is restored.

Gates said that continued improvement in global living standards depends on rich countries and individuals reallocating resources to reduce inequality. In May 2025, he announced plans to significantly boost his philanthropy, pledging to give away “all” of his estimated $118 billion fortune by 2045.

“The idea of ​​treating others as you would want to be treated does not apply only to rich countries providing aid,” Gates wrote, calling for increased philanthropy from billionaires and billionaires around the world.

Scaling up innovation to fill gaps

Gates said his optimism is fueled by the ability of technology, especially artificial intelligence, to expand access to health care, education, and opportunity. He highlighted the progress made by artificial intelligence in areas such as Alzheimer’s disease research, cancer treatment, malaria prevention, and nutrition.

He also reiterated his firm belief that AI can transform education. Gates has previously said that AI teachers could eventually match the impact of a “great high school teacher,” providing personalized instruction across income levels and geographies.

He added that environmental challenges are closely linked to inequality. Climate change can join poverty and infectious diseases in causing enormous suffering, especially in poor countries. While he once suggested redirecting some climate funding to other priorities, Gates now says he plans to invest “more than ever” in climate action.

He said AI-powered agricultural tools could help farmers in developing countries adapt to global warming conditions through better advice and more resilient crops.

Artificial intelligence risk management

Even as an AI optimist, Gates acknowledged the risks of the technology — especially its potential for misuse by bad actors and its impact on jobs.

“Both represent real risks, and we need to manage our work better,” he wrote, urging governments and the tech industry to think intentionally about how they develop, manage and deploy AI.

Although he did not propose specific policy solutions, Gates pushed back against concerns that artificial intelligence would permanently damage job prospects. Instead, he suggested, new capabilities could be allocated in ways that benefit society broadly, including shorter work weeks for some workers.

Ultimately, Gates said his hope rests on two enduring human strengths: insight and compassion.

“The first is our ability to anticipate and prepare for problems,” he wrote. “The second is our ability to care for each other.”

“As long as we continue to exercise these capabilities, I believe the coming years can be years of real progress,” Gates concluded.