A copy of this post appeared for the first time on Tker.co
The number of multiple front prices (P/E) has a limited value during normal times.
It can be said that the scale has a lower value during the high uncertainty periods.
This is because E depends on analysts’ estimates for the near future. And when the expectations for business are increasingly uncertain and change quickly, it may take a long time for many analysts to control that E.
This is especially the case at the present time because many companies have not taken into account after the impact of definitions on their guidelines, which analysts depend when creating their profits expectations.
“We have read the texts of profits and conferences closely since November via the letters, sectors and industries, and we are somewhat confident in saying that American public companies were very hesitant in discussing the effects of customs tariffs (outside China) until specific details were provided by the administration, and even that, many did not give a great analyst of specific determinants of the facts in that.”
Assuming that the customs tariff is negative for profits – which is what everyone assumes – this means that e distorted is higher through unimaginable estimates.
The profit estimation has not already moved forward amid the sale of the market. (Source: FactSet)
As stock prices have decreased in the way they were in recent weeks, the P/E illusion may create that stocks have become cheaper than they are actually.
The P/E lineage has decreased forward. But is e minute? (Source: FactSet)
In general, it is not good to be trading inside and outside the stock market, especially during periods of tension. It is especially left to trade based on P/E ratios, more than that when ES is unreliable.
Unfortunately, we may not get e at any time soon.
“There is a reasonable possibility that in the absence of some accuracy/clarity, transparency can be at risk,” Savita Supramania wrote on Thursday. “Companies tend to close the guidance amid uncertainty.”
This feeling is in line with the David Kostin Davidman Sachs, which is expected “during the upcoming quarterly profits, companies will provide less than usual guidelines forward.” This is because recently announced definitions made it very difficult to display business.
If you are going to trade, be careful about trading based on expectations for the near future. The most sneezing mind in the market is to warn this guess game.
There have been many prominent data points and macroeconomic developments since our last review:
👍 Inflation cools. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) increased in March by 2.4 % from last year, a decrease from 2.8 % in February. Food and energy prices have been modified, Core CPI increased by 2.8 %, down from the previous month level 3.1 %.
(Souce: m_mcdonough)
On a monthly monthly basis, the consumer price index decreased by 0.1 % amid low energy prices. Core CORE CPI rose only 0.1 %. If you twice the direction for three months in the monthly numbers-a reflection of the short-term trend-the basic CPI increases by 3.0 %.
(Source: Jason Foreman)
To learn more about inflation, read: The end of the inflation crisis 🎈 and The Federal Reserve closes a chapter with a rate of reduction ✂
⛽ Low gas prices. From AAA: “Prices in the pump decreased even though this is the time of the year when the gas prices rise. The supply and demand are the main reason for the decline. After OPEC+ announced that it increases oil production next month by more than 400,000 barrels per day – much more than expected – the price of crude oil has decreased.
(Source: AAA)
To learn more about energy prices, read:The high oil prices mean something different in the past 🛢
💼 Unemployment claims higher marks. Initial demands for unemployment benefits increased to 223,000 during the week ending April 5, up from 219,000 in the previous week. This scale is still in levels historically related to economic growth.
(Source: DOL via Farid)
For more context, read:Note about federal workers’ demobilization 🏛 and The labor market cools down 💼
👎 Consumer feelings stumble. Among the consumer surveys at the University of Michigan in April: “The consumer’s feelings decreased for the fourth month in a row, as it decreased by 11 % of March. This decrease, such as last month, was widespread and unanimously over the course of life, income, education, geographical region, and political affiliation. It increases the risk of stagnation: expectations of working conditions, personal financing, income, inflation, and business markets continued in Determine this month.
(Source: Michigan University)
policy clearly plays a role in the perception of peoples of the economy:
(Source: Michael McDono)
It is worth noting that inflation expectations appear to be a party issue. From Michael McDonough from Bloomberg: “Inflation expectations in Democrats continue to rise (7.9 %), while Republicans’ expectations, although they are still much lower (0.9 %), are heading up. The trend indicates that some partisan agreement is that customs tariffs may be guaranteed.
(Source: Michael McDono)
To learn more about feelings, read:Beware how your policy is distorting how you imagine economic facts 😵💫
👎 Small business optimism. From the March March Small Business Index Report: “This year will be tight with certainty. Global and local measures generate insecurity in abundance, political and economic.
(Source: NFIB)
To learn more about the state of feelings, read:Beware how your policy is distorting how you imagine economic facts 😵💫
It is worth noting that the most realistic “solid” components of the index continue to withstand relatively well.
(Source: NFIB)
Keep in mind that during the imaginative stress times, soft scanning data tends to exaggerate more than actual solid data.
To learn more about this, read:What companies do> What companies say 🙊
💳 Card spending data stand up. From Jpmorgan: “As of April 01, 2025, our consumer card spending data (incredible) was 4.7 % higher than the same day last year. According to consumer card data at a chase until 01 April 2025, our estimation of the US march control scale is 0.40 %.”
(Source: Jpmorgan)
From Bofa: “The March Card spending for each family has increased by 1.1 % on an annual basis (YOY), according to the collected Bank of America data and discount card data. The amending cards spending for each family increased by 0.2 % month (MOM).”
To learn more about the consumer, read: The Americans have money, and they spend that🛍
🏠 Decreased mortgage rates. According to Freddy Mac, the average mortgage of 30 years decreased to 6.62 % of 6.64 % last week. From Freddie Mac: “The average firm mortgage continues for 30 years in the direction, and remains less than 7 % for the twelfth week in a row. With the continued purchase applications in the climb, the spring season for the house is formed to look more convenient than last year.”
(Source: Freddy Mac)
There are 147.4 million housing units in the United States, of which 86.9 million units occupied by owners and about 34.1 million of them are free of mortgage. Among those who hold mortgage debts, almost all of them have fixed real estate loans, and most of those mortgages have prices secured before 2021 levels rise. All of this means: Most home owners are not particularly sensitive to the movements of home prices or mortgage rates.
To learn more about mortgages and home prices, read:Why does the prices of homes and rents create all kinds of confusion about inflation?
🏢 The offices remain relatively empty. From Kastle Systems: “Oper Day Office was 63.5 % on Tuesday, a decrease in ten points from the previous week and a half points from a record level in February. Los Angeles set a new record for one day reached 57.2 % on Wednesday.
(Source: Castle)
To learn more about the office’s job, read:These statistics about offices remind us that things are far from being normal 🏢
🇺🇸 Most American states are still growing. From the report of Felly State Indicators in February, indexes decreased in 45 states, decreased in three states, and remained stable in calling for a period of three months publishing index 84. In addition, last month, indexes increased in 38 states, and remained stable at the sixth, for one spread out of 64. “
(Source: Philly Fed)
📉 GDP growth rates in the short term are negative. The GDP in Atlanta sees the GDP of GDP average at a rate of 2.4 % in the first quarter. Adjusting the effect of gold and export imports, they see a decrease in GDP at a rate of 0.3 %.
(Source: Federal Atlanta)
To learn more about gross domestic product and economics, read:9 free economic plans once cooled 📉 and Do you call this recession? 🤨
🚨 the The definitions announced by president Trump While threatening to raise global trade – with great effects on the American economy, companies’ profits, and stock market. Until we get more clarity, here is the place where things stand:
The profits look ascendingThe long -term view of the stock market is favorable, supported by expectations for years of profit growth. And profits are the most important stock price engine.
The request is positiveThe demand for goods and services is still positive, supported by the public budget for consumers and business. The creation of job opportunities, despite cooling, remains positive as well, and the Federal Reserve – after solving the inflation crisis – has turned its focus towards supporting the labor market.
But growth coolsWhile the economy is still healthy, growth has been normalized from more hot levels of the course. The economy is less “wrapped” these days as the main winds like excess function openings faded. It has become difficult to say that growth is destiny.
Verbs speak with a louder voiceWe are in a strange period, given that solid economic data has been separated from the data directed towards soft feelings. Consumer and commercial morale was relatively bad, even as consumer and commercial growth continued to grow and trend at record levels. From the point of view of the investor, what matters is that the difficult economic data continues to correct it.
Stocks are not the economyAnalysts expect that the US Securities Market will outperform the US economy, thanks to the positive operation crane. Since the epidemic, companies have strongly modified cost structures. This came with strategy and investment demobilization operations in new equipment, including devices where artificial intelligence operates. These moves lead to a positive operating crane, which means a modest degree of sales growth – in the cooling economy – translates into strong profit growth.
Consider the permanent risksOf course, this does not mean that we must be satisfied. There will always be anxiety about – such as political uncertainty in the United States, geopolitical turmoil, energy fluctuation, electronic attacks, etc. Any of these risks can excel and excite short -term fluctuations in the market.
Investment is never a smooth journeyThere is also a harsh reality that the economic recession and bear markets are developments that all investors in the long run must expect to try it while building wealth in the markets. Always keep the stock market seat belts.
Think in the long termAt the present time, there is no reason to believe that there will be a challenge that the economy and markets will not be able to overcome over time. The long game is still not defeated, which is a long -term chain that investors can expect.
A copy of this post appeared for the first time on Tker.co
