Ravi Agrawal on FP’s Winter 2026 Print Issue

We’ve all heard the criticism. The United States has never been the ideal figure for a rules-based international order. Do you remember Iraq? Washington has often taken a conditional approach to multilateralism. Then there’s the fact that it has tried to overthrow foreign governments several times in the past century. The White House is no place for saints

However, 2025 still feels like a new era. US President Donald Trump gave a public view of the transactions. He blew up the international trading system by imposing unilateral US tariffs. He again withdrew the United States from many international bodies. Under Trump, the United States has refused to attend the annual United Nations climate summit, or COP30, in Brazil and the G20 in South Africa. This was a far cry from the days, not so long ago, when the United States led the way in mobilizing and persuading countries to reach lofty agreements at major global summits. Again, these plans were usually flawed, and often failed – but at least there was an overt attempt at multilateralism.

We’ve all heard the criticism. The United States has never been the ideal figure for a rules-based international order. Do you remember Iraq? Washington has often taken a conditional approach to multilateralism. Then there’s the fact that it has tried to overthrow foreign governments several times in the past century. The White House is no place for saints

However, 2025 still feels like a new era. US President Donald Trump gave a public view of the transactions. He blew up the international trading system by imposing unilateral US tariffs. He again withdrew the United States from many international bodies. Under Trump, the United States has refused to attend the annual United Nations climate summit, or COP30, in Brazil and the G20 in South Africa. This was a far cry from the days, not so long ago, when the United States led the way in mobilizing and persuading countries to reach lofty agreements at major global summits. Again, these plans were usually flawed, and often failed – but at least there was an overt attempt at multilateralism.

Does Washington leave behind a void or a vacuum? It’s an important distinction. Blanks want to be filled; The spaces remain empty. Judging by the G20 and COP30 summits last November, countries seem intent on closing the gap. In South Africa, for example, G20 members reached an agreement that included debt relief for the poorest countries, financing clean energy, and improving supply chains for critical minerals. There is no doubt that such a plan would benefit from the full support of the White House. But achieving progress despite the obstacles the United States faces may be a harbinger of order in a new global chaos.

Political scientist at American University Amitav Acharya He gave our mysterious moment a name: the world minus one. Although the era of US unipolar supremacy may be over, Acharya wrote in his op-ed, it will be several more years before we reach a multipolar system. The transition period—a world without the old America—will be chaotic, chaotic, and even violent. But if the countries can chart a path toward cooperation, the United States may one day be forced to join them as an equal. Acharya points out that the seeds of this future have already been planted.

Climate change remains the most important area for cooperation. Kelly Sims Gallagherdean of Tufts University’s Fletcher School, has a largely hopeful forecast here. It indicates that renewable energy generated more electricity than coal in the first half of 2025, which is a historical precedent. Even if no country can replace America, China will at least flood the global market with cheap green technologies, helping to avoid the worst of the climate crisis.

Rebecca Leisner and Erin D. Dumbasher Seeing troubles in the future. Researchers at the Council on Foreign Relations document how US allies and partners, feeling less committed by Washington, are making nuclear deals to protect themselves without the United States. Could a new wave of spread have already begun?

Our staff writer Rishi Iyengar Reports indicate that the US is also backing out of major cybersecurity meetings. What kind of impact will this have on global intelligence and security? Does it leave a void or void? You’ll have to read to find out.

There’s a lot more to this topic, as we start 2026 excited about a busy year that includes the 250th anniversary of the United States’ birth and the FIFA World Cup. As a reminder, you can stay up to date with all the news through our newsletter list, including the daily Global Brief and regional weeklies on Africa, China, Latin America, South Asia and Southeast Asia.

Here’s to a safe, healthy and happy New Year.

As ever,

Ravi Agrawal