October NY World Sugar #11 (SBV25) today rose +0.21 (+1.29 %), and white sugar sugar in London in London No. 5 (SWV25) +4.40 (+0.93 %).
Sugar prices rise today, as NY Sugar has published one height for one week and London sugar at the highest level at a height of 1.5 weeks. Anxiety about smaller sugar supplies from Brazil is to enhance sugar prices. Covrig Analytics said last Friday that reports on the revenues of cane smaller than sugar farmers in Brazil may expel the production of Brazil in 2025/26 sugar cane less than 600 million tons, which is much less than the expectations of the Brazilian CONAB Crops Agency of 663.4 million metric tons.
The excessive short position through the money can exacerbate any short gathering in the future of sugar. Last Friday, the weekly commitment to merchant data (CO) showed that the money increased their net positions in NY SUGAR futures by +25,923 jobs to 151,004 short jobs in the week ending on August 5, which is almost more than 6 years.
Last Tuesday, sugar prices fell to 5 weeks from the lowest signs of the production of the strongest sugar in Brazil. On July 31, UNICA reported sugar output at the Brazil Center in the first half of July, which rose +15 % on an annual basis to 3.4 million tons. Also, the amount of sugar cane to be crushed by sugar by sugar factories in Brazil increased to 54 % of 50 % at the same time last year.
The expectations for high sugar exports from India are negative for sugar prices after Bloomberg stated that India may allow the local sugar mills to export sugar in the next season, which begins in October, as abundant monsoon rains may produce the bumper sugar crop. The Indian Meteorological Department said on Tuesday that the cumulative seasonal winds in India were 500.8 mm as of August 4, or 4 % higher than the normal rate. Also, the Indian Diabetes and Energy Manufacturers Association said last Thursday that it would seek permission to export 2 million tons of sugar in 2025/26.
The expectations for high sugar production in India, the second largest producer in the world, are downward. On June 2, the National Union of Cooperative Diabetes expected that sugar production in India 2025/26 in India will climb +19 % on an annual basis to 35 million tons, citing a larger cane area. This would follow a decrease in the production of sugar in India -17.5 % in 2024/25 to the lowest level of 5 years of 26.2 million tons, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Sugar prices have declined during the past four months, as sugar in New York decreased to its lowest level last month for 4.25 years, and sugar in London was sliding to the lowest level of 4 years, driven by sugar surplus expectations in the 2025/26 season. On June 30, the CZANIKOW commodity dealer expected a global surplus of global sugar 7.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, which is the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the US Department of Agriculture expected, in its classic report, that the production of global sugar 2025/26 will increase by +4.7 % on an annual basis to 189.318 million tons, as global sugar ends in 41.188 million tons, an increase of 7.5 % on an annual basis.
The signs that the last segment of sugar prices to its lowest levels for 4 years has sparked the demand for the demand is positive for sugar prices. Chinese sugar imports in June increased by 1.435 % to 420,000 metric tons. Also, Coca-Cola agreed to use cane sugar in coke drinks sold in the United States instead of high fructose corn syrup, which may enhance the consumption of sugar in the United States by +4.4 % to 11.5 million metric tons from 11 million tons currently, according to Bloomberg’s intelligence.
Also, sugar prices have support from low sugar production in Brazil. UNICA reported last Thursday that the cumulative output of the year 2025/26 Brazil through mid -July decreased by -9.2 % on an annual basis to 15.655 million tons. Last month, Konab, the government -predicing agency in Brazil, said that the production of sugar in Brazil 2024/25 decreased by -3.4 % on an annual basis to 44.118 million metric tons, citing sugar cane depressions due to drought and excessive heat.
Expectations for high sugar production in Thailand are low for sugar. On May 2, the Thailand office in sugar cane and sugar reported that the production of sugar 2024/25 from Thailand increased +14 % year on an annual basis to 10.00 million tons. Thailand is the third largest sugar producer in the world and the second largest sugar exporter.
The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised the forecasts of the World Sugar deficit for the year 2024/25 to the highest level in 9 years of -5.47 million tons on May 15, up from February -88 m This indicates a tightening market after the global sugar surplus 2023/24 of 1.31 million tons. ISO has also reduced the forecast of international sugar production for the year 2024/25 to 174.8 million tons of February forecast 175.5 million tons.
The US Department of Agriculture expected, in its annual bilateral report, which was released on May 22, that the production of global sugar 2025/26 will increase +4.7 % on an annual basis to 189.318 million metric tons, and that global sugar consumption 2025/26 will increase +1.4 % on an annual basis to 177.921 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture also expected that the storage of 2025/26 global sugar would climb +7.5 % year on year to 41.188 million tons. Foreign Agricultural Service in the US Department of Agriculture (FAS) predicted that the production of sugar in Brazil 2025/26 will rise +2.3 % year on year to 44.7 million metric tons in India, the production of sugar in India 2025/26 will increase. FAS expected that the production of sugar 2025/26 from Thailand will climb +2 % on an annual basis to 10.3 million tons.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are only for media purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
