Russia Targets Ukraine’s Natural Gas Supply Ahead of Winter

Just ahead of winter, Russia has greatly intensified its assault on Ukraine’s energy sector, with a particular new focus on the country’s supply of natural gas. The Russian offensive, which exploded this month on a scale and intensity unprecedented in nearly four years of previous war, appears to be an attempt to leave Ukraine, especially its eastern parts, in the dark and cold.

Last week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Ssibha called for additional European support for damaged power plants and power lines in the country to avoid a humanitarian crisis. European Union foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas pledged this month to work on providing another 100 million euros ($117 million) in energy aid to help Ukraine survive over the next few months. Kiev’s conversation about military support has shifted from a request for US-made Tomahawk missiles to a request for additional Patriot air defense batteries.

Just ahead of winter, Russia has greatly intensified its assault on Ukraine’s energy sector, with a particular new focus on the country’s supply of natural gas. The Russian offensive, which exploded this month on a scale and intensity unprecedented in nearly four years of previous war, appears to be an attempt to leave Ukraine, especially its eastern parts, in the dark and cold.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sipha He begged Last week, he requested additional European support for damaged power plants and power lines in the country to avoid a humanitarian crisis; European Union Foreign Affairs Coordinator Kaja Kallas pledge This month, he will provide another 100 million euros ($117 million) in energy aid to help Ukraine survive over the next few months. Kiev’s conversation about military support has shifted from a request for US-made Tomahawk missiles to a request for additional Patriot air defense batteries.

Russia launched Seven major waves of missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure this month alone, the most recent overnight from Monday to Tuesday. Eastern cities are particularly and frequently affected, including Sumy, ChernihivKharkivand Poltava; Kiev also suffers from frequent attacks, but these attacks target energy infrastructure less than residential areas.

The pursuit of energy is not a new tactic for Russia: it has been Trying to disable Ukraine’s electricity system has had mixed success since the beginning of the war. But this Autumn attack New and different in two ways. The scale of Russia’s air attack is much larger than what has happened before: drone swarms of 600 or 700 machines overwhelm air defenses and can deliver concentrated strikes against previously resilient parts of the power system, whether those are generators or transformers. Secondly, Russia is trying, for the first time in this way, to eliminate Ukraine Natural gas Production, storage and distribution capabilities, not just electricity.

Ukraine may have lost as much One third Its natural gas production capacity already exists and faces the possibility of a significant (and costly) increase. Additional imports Of natural gas from Europe if it is to maintain heating and protect the population from severe suffering this winter.

“Russia has adjusted its tactics from the beginning,” said Andrian Prokip. “The difference we see now – before, it was electricity. Now, in October, they are attacking everything – electricity, natural gas, fuel depots. We need gas and electricity.” Energy expert at the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute office in Kyiv.

There is some debate about the strategic rationale behind the latest Russian attack. This may be part of a calculated escalation of ongoing attacks on Ukraine’s energy system, which aims to undermine the will and morale of the Ukrainian people.

“They want to make sure we freeze, and get people to put pressure on the government,” Brokip said. He added: “They consider this a last attempt and a last resort, and they want to use all means.”

But there is also an element to the timing of the Russian escalation: it comes largely on the heels of the Ukrainian escalation. Intense attacks Using drones and missiles against remote Russian oil facilities, especially refineries and fuel depots. The campaign has led to longer queues to buy gasoline in many parts of Russia and weakened the country’s ability to export refined petroleum products, putting more pressure on the energy cash cow, which is now facing more problems. Western sanctions.

“There is a degree of tit-for-tat. The attacks on the refinery had a serious impact, and… [Ukraine] Emily Ferris, an expert on Russian and Eurasian security at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said a Russian air attack could also be a way to influence dynamics in Washington, with US president Donald Trump constantly wavering between pressuring Ukraine and acting tough on Moscow, depending on the ebb and flow of the fighting.

The first problem for Ukraine is that there is no easy way to strengthen the air defenses needed to protect all of the power plants, substations, transformers, natural gas storage, and gas fields themselves. Air defense missiles are expensive and ineffective against overwhelming swarms; Russian drones enhanced with artificial intelligence can also avoid jamming procedures and attack from angles that make interception more difficult. However, Germany has promised to provide more US-made Patriot air defense batteries On the road.

“It is difficult to see what level of air defense we might need,” Brokip said. “It is difficult to deal with 500 to 800 drones at one time.”

The other problem is that Russia’s expanded energy attack is insidiously doing what Moscow has been openly trying to do for years and even decades: severing the eastern part of Ukraine from the western parts. Most of the recent Russian attacks have been concentrated in a few cities in northeastern and eastern Ukraine, with additional efforts to cut transmission lines from the less hot west, which could have helped alleviate power shortages.

“On the eastern bank of the Dnipro River, a significant amount of generating capacity has been destroyed,” Prokip said, highlighting two major attacks that took place in October. While power generation is less affected in Kiev and the Far West, there is increasingly little way to connect the two parts of the country together and prevent blackouts.

“We cannot transfer capacity,” he added.

Some in Ukraine suggest escalation in turn, so that the energy war returns to the Russian civilian population in a way it has not done in Kiev so far, gas lines notwithstanding. Despite the extent and force of Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil, they have targeted the financial and military aspects of the Russian energy complex rather than seeking to keep civilians in the dark or the cold.

Ferris said that the best defense may be a good offense, but such escalation may be counterproductive at the strategic level.

She added: “If the matter escalates in this way, Ukraine will lose its high moral standing, and civilian casualties will be in Russia’s interest.” “I think such an escalation would make it more difficult to come to the table, and would really risk Trump showing sympathy for the Russian position.”