GOP aims to expand Senate majority in 2026 midterms with favorable map

With narrow margins in both chambers, control of congress in 2026 is expected to rest on a small group of competitive contests in Senate and House districts sensitive to national trends. As America enters its new year, here are the races likely to determine the midterm races.

Majority-making or majority-breaking Senate races to watch

Senate Republicans are looking to maintain their slim majority after flipping the upper chamber in 2024. There are 33 seats up for grabs in the upcoming midterm elections, which often serve as a check on the incumbent president’s performance.

The Republican Party hopes to repeat the Election Day successes that helped maintain its majority midway through President Donald Trump’s first term, entering 2026 with what many analysts consider a favorable map.

Georgia

Why it matters: Georgia is the big prize for Senate Republicans and their campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC). Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga., is looking weak in his first bid for re-election to the Senate, and will be met with the full weight of the NRSC campaign fund.

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What to watch: Before the general election, Republicans will first have to let the dust settle on a bloody four-way primary battle between Reps. Buddy Carter, R-Ga., and Mike Collins, R-Ga., former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, and horse trainer Regan Box. The Republican favorite, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, has chosen not to enter the race, leaving the field wide open for the GOP to fight for.

North Carolina

North Carolina Senate candidate Michael Whatley will compete for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Getty Images)

Why it matters: As the Senate moved forward with Trump’s big, beautiful bill, Senator Thom Tillis, Republican of North Carolina, announced his retirement. What was likely to be a GOP race has now turned into a widely open contest for an open seat.

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What to watch: Democrats believe they can flip their seat for the first time since 2008, and they hope that former North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper will lead them to victory, and deliver a decisive victory to tip the balance of power. Republicans have also listed their preferred candidate in former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. He will have a primary challenge from Michel Moreau.

Michigan

Democratic Senator Gary Peters announced his retirement, opening a seat in the US Senate in Michigan. (Reuters/Mike Segar)

Why it matters: Similar to North Carolina, Democrats lost incumbent Senator Gary Peters, Democrat of Michigan, due to retirement. Both parties are now seeking the open seat, but Democrats have a tangled primary to stay first before their true nominee emerges.

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What to watch: Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and Dr. Abdel Sayed, are all on the Democratic side, while Trump and Republicans have united behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin last year.

who

Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine is looking to secure a sixth term in the Senate. (Chip Somodevila/Getty Images)

Why it matters: Current Sen. Susan Collins, Republican of Maine, is Senate Democrats’ top target in the midterm elections. Collins, who is eyeing a sixth Senate term, could face a formidable general election opponent with the full support of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., or an upstart progressive candidate looking to shake up Democrats’ plans.

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What to watch: There are several local candidates running on both sides of the race, but the main contenders are Collins, popular Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, and oyster farmer Graham Blatner, who has rubbed shoulders with progressive heavyweights Sen. Bernie Sanders, D-Va., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.

Ohio

Senator Jon Husted, Republican from Ohio, will face his Democratic rival, Senator Sherrod Brown. (Getty Images)

Why it matters: Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, who was appointed to replace Vice President J.D. Vance earlier this year, will look to finish out the remaining two years of his predecessor’s term. But he will face a strong opponent in former Senator Sherrod Brown, Democrat of Ohio, who narrowly lost last year.

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What to watch: Schumer and the Democrats scored their best chance to gain a seat in Ohio, trying again to turn the state purple after Brown’s loss to Senator Bernie Moreno, Republican of Ohio. There will be amazing sums of money being offered in this competition.

New Hampshire

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., said she will leave Congress at the end of her term. (Getty Images)

Why it matters: Democrats took another hit from the retirement train when Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., announced she would leave Congress at the end of her term. That opened the field to several familiar Republican names jumping into the fray in hopes of turning part of the Granite State red.

What to watch: Republicans have two main candidates, former Sen. John Sununu, and former Rep. Scott Brown, R-Mass., who also served as Trump’s ambassador, to choose from. Meanwhile, Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., is the likely heir apparent on the Democratic side.

House races will decide the majority

Control of the House is likely to rest on fewer than two dozen districts across the country, as both parties focus their resources on a small group of competitive seats that could decide the chamber. The battlefields span suburbs, rural communities, and diverse metropolitan areas, underscoring how diverse the path to majority is.

Colorado’s 8th District and the northern Denver and Gilley suburbs

Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Colorado, will look to defend his seat in an increasingly competitive district. (Tierney L. Cross/Getty Images)

Why it matters: With Republican Rep. Gabe Evans defending the seat, Colorado’s 8th District remains one of the most competitive House districts in the country. Drawn as a true swing seat after redistricting, it has flipped parties in successive sessions, often being decided by razor-thin margins.

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What to watch: Whether Latino and working-class voters split decisively toward one party and whether the race will be decided by a narrow margin remains to be seen. A comfortable win here usually signals momentum heading into other races in the battlefield.

Iowa’s 1st District, Eastern Iowa

Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks controls Iowa’s 1st District, which is once again turning into a key battleground. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Why it matters: With a history of close results, Iowa’s 1st District is once again a major battleground as Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks seeks re-election.

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What to watch: The district straddles college towns, rural counties, and small manufacturing centers, creating an electorate that frequently splits its ticket. Even as Iowa trends turn red at the presidential level, the seat still hovers in a swing district and is often among the last House races to be decided on election night.

New Jersey 7th District, North Jersey Suburbs

Republican Rep. Thomas Kean is seeking to defend his seat in what appears to be a competitive race. (Getty)

Why it matters: GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr.’s 7th District is a high-income, college-educated suburb of New Jersey that has repeatedly swayed with the national political climate and historically punished incumbents during unfavorable sessions.

What to watch: Whether suburban voters will continue to turn away from Republicans or settle into a midterm environment remains to be seen. The shift here would provide an early read into how educated suburbs respond to the party in power.

New York’s 17th District, the Hudson Valley and the northern suburbs of New York City

With money and letters pouring in from national groups, Rep. Mike Lawler, Republican of New York, is gearing up for a high-profile race. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Why it matters: New York’s 17th District, which previously supported former President Joe Biden, is represented by Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, and is expected to play a large role in determining control of the House.

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What to watch: Whether Democrats can harness massive national spending and messaging effectively in an area expected to attract intense attention remains to be seen.

7th District of Pennsylvania, Lehigh Valley and Allentown

Representative Ryan McKenzie, Republican of Pennsylvania, is likely to address immigration and economic pressures during his campaign. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Why it matters: Pennsylvania’s 7th District, held by Republican Rep. Chris McKenzie, is a true purple district in a must-win swing state. This district consists of a politically diverse electorate that previously mirrored statewide results.

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What to watch: Economic pressures and immigration debates are expected to shape how working-class and Latino voters approach the race.

District 22 in California, Central Valley

Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., will need to win the Latino vote in this upcoming race. (Juan Esparza Loera/The Fresno Bee/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)

Why it matters: California’s 22nd state, represented by GOP Rep. David Valadao, has been a perennial battleground for more than a decade, shaped by its agricultural economy and large number of Latino voters sensitive to fluctuations in turnout.

What to watch: Whether Democrats can boost turnout enough to flip the seat, and whether Central Valley races help offset Republican gains elsewhere in the country remains to be seen.