Why the world’s top coffee producer is switching up its beans
In the coming years, Brazilian coffee may start to taste a little different.
The South American country is the world’s largest producer of Arabica, a mild variety of coffee beans. But as climate change makes it harder to grow those beans, some farmers are investing in robusta, which produces beans that are more bitter but can withstand higher temperatures and are more resistant to disease.
Brazil’s traditional coffee-growing regions, which largely produce Arabica coffee, have experienced more severe and frequent droughts and higher temperatures. Arabica remains the country’s main coffee export, but Robusta production is now growing at a faster rate: by more than 81% over the past 10 years, according to the USDA, which tracks global coffee production.
For Brazil, Robusta offers an opportunity to remain the world’s largest coffee supplier in the future even as the effects of climate change worsen, says Fernando Maximiliano, director of coffee market intelligence at StoneX, a financial services company.
“It was not necessarily demand that drove the growth in robusta production,” he adds. “In fact, climate problems and losses in Arabica plants were the main factors that contributed to stimulating the growth of Robusta.”
Over the past three years, Arabica coffee production in Brazil has grown at a rate of about 2% to 2.5% per year, while robusta production has increased by about 4.8% per year. This year’s growing season generated a nearly 22% increase, a record crop, according to StoneX. Analysts say this means that Robusta production is distinguished by its ability to better deal with adverse weather conditions, as well as its profitability.
In warmer regions of Brazil, where Arabica coffee cannot grow, coffee producers are finding ways to produce Robusta and mitigate the impact of high temperatures. Planting coffee trees under the shade of local trees and other species is one such technique.
“This way it will still be productive, it will stay a little more moist, and therefore it won’t break down as easily,” says Jonatas Machado, commercial director of Café Apuí, a company that produces robusta milk through agroforestry in the Amazon.
Different pill
Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta, but Brazil is catching up and could overtake the Southeast Asian country due to its well-organized supply chain, according to analysts at financial services firm Rabobank.
Robusta has a higher concentration of caffeine and a stronger taste than Arabica. But younger generations pay less attention to the type of coffee they drink or roast, and tend to prefer custom options, adding things like milk, creamers and syrup, which mask the flavor of the beans.
“They’re not so much about the origins, it’s the tasting notes,” said Matthew Barry, director of global insight for food, cooking and meals at market research firm Euromonitor International.
If coffee prices continue to rise, consumers may also gravitate toward Robusta coffee, which costs less.
In Europe, the gap between Robusta and Arabica prices is likely to be wider in the coming years. The new law will require imported goods to be certified to prove they did not originate from recently deforested or degraded land, although its implementation date remains unclear. Instant coffee, which is mostly prepared using the Robusta variety, is exempt from these rules. This deduction could increase demand for robusta-based products, according to Rabobank.
The European Union is the largest consumer of instant coffee, accounting for nearly 50% of global revenue, according to Grand View Research, a business consulting firm.
While Robusta tends to be cheaper than Arabica, its prices have reached record levels.
These high prices and varieties whose yields are almost twice that of Arabica have convinced a growing number of Brazilian coffee producers to invest in growing robusta, said Alexandro Teixeira, a coffee researcher at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Foundation.
Robusta producers are also improving the quality of their beans. He added that this made the item more attractive to consumers and led to higher prices.
2025-11-30 16:38:00
