Trump got a strong jobs report, but not in the way he necessarily wanted

• A closer look at April job data He indicates that it may be more than a testimony to the American economy’s flexibility from supporting the resonance of President Donald Trump’s economic plan. However, sorting stock markets breathed while eliminating stagnation fears, which may give management more influence in the upcoming commercial negotiations.

The uncertainty in the customs tariff has not prevented the expected job report on Friday from storming Wall Street’s dark expectations, and President Donald Trump is looking forward to calling for victory. Stephen Miran, the best economic advisor, went on Bloomberg TV To celebrate “second jobs in a row” after the economy added 177,000 jobs in April, it was much higher than 135,000 additions in salaries.

Many economists and investors warn of the worst effects of definitions on the horizon, however, if the administration does not find a slope of exit soon. Meanwhile, a closer view of job data indicates that it may be more than a certificate on the elasticity of the American economy than supporting the Economic Plan of ringing.

For example, Trump’s tariff aims, at least partially, to rebuild the American industrial base, and the president signed an executive on his first day in his position calling for the abolition of restrictions to “launch” American energy.

On Friday, the work statistics office informed the work that showed a little change in industries such as manufacturing, construction, mining, quarries, oil and gas extraction.

Instead, the largest part of the new functions of industries that do not necessarily reflect management priorities. The healthcare sector added 51,000 jobs in April, while the component of education and private health services represents 70,000 new appointments, although concerns about what the discounts in federal financing for both industries mean.

Although the Ministry of Governmental efficiency bearing the head of Musk has taken a series of saw to the federal workforce – where the sector lost 9,000 jobs in April and 26,000 jobs since January – government jobs have grown more than 10,000 as more local employment than Doug discounts.

These nuances did not prevent the administration from celebrating the report.

The White House press secretary Caroline Levitte said in a statement to luck. “This is exactly what we want to see. More Americans working for higher wages. More winning the way!”

The average profits per hour grew by 0.2 % in April, less than Wall Street expectations by 0.3 %; The annual wage growth was 3.8 %, unchanged from March.

Good and bad news for Trump

However, signs that the labor market is still strong, it is unlikely that Trump indicates its way when it comes to interest rates. Shortly after the report was issued, the President posted on Truth Social to demand that the Federal Reserve reduce its policy price to reduce borrowing costs for Americans.

However, most Wall Street saw that the data enhances the “waiting and vision” approach to the central bank. The federal reserve guarantees almost retaining fixed rates when it meets next week, and most merchants are now expecting the same thing in June before the Passis 25 point is reduced in July, according to the Fedwatch tool for the CME group.

Traders have also expanded their scope of their bets on discounts in the prices of the Federal Reserve by selling bonds, which will become more attractive for new debts if the central bank reduced interest rates. The return on the two -year treasury, which rises with the low price of bonds and is closely related to the rate of federal funds, rose about 13 basis points from Friday afternoon. Jay Philseld, CEO of the Capital Management Infrastructure Company, said, said, ” luck The chances of reducing the June rate looked far.

He said of the Federal Reserve: “The only thing that will lead to their output, because they are all economists in the labor market, is a weakness in the labor market.”

Of course, a good job report cannot be bad news for the president. Jimmy Cox, the administrative partner of the Harris Financial Group in Richmond, said, after all, there are no signs that the tariff tension that reaches the labor market yet.

“If you will start a commercial war and your economy depends on consumption, this is the financial lever you want,” he wrote in a memo on Friday.

The stock market, which is still suffering from a free decrease caused by the customs tariff at the beginning of the month, breathe a sigh of relief. The S&P 500 rose about 1.5 % on Friday afternoon.

“If the labor market has withstood and the Trump administration behind the most terrible tariff, the economy can exceed the deep recession,” wrote Jeffrey Roche, chief economist in the broker of the LPL.

When it comes to Trump’s taxes on imports, many economists warn most of the effects that have not yet played. For example, salary data on Friday showed that transportation and storage added 29,000 workers in April. Some economists have strengthened this ascension to importers who rush to store goods before the tariff begins.

“It will be amazing to be exposed to salary statements in the logistics, manufacturing and retail service sectors due to the decline in the horizon in the goods that enter American ports in the coming weeks,” wrote Samuel Thompses, American economist in Pantheion.

This may start to appear in the report next month.

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-05-02 18:05:00