Stock Market Week Ahead: Inflation Data, Defense And Mining, Plus Tesla And Netflix

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes posted a rebound after the stock market fell the previous week on Chinese tariff concerns. Both indicators found healthy support at the 21-day exponential moving averages. The S&P 500 fell enough to rebound from its 10-week moving average.

If history is a guide, further declines in the S&P 500 this year are likely to be limited, the CFRA tells us. The S&P 500 added more than 9% from June 27, the day it emerged from its four-month adjustment, to October 10. This gain and duration is typical after a full recovery from declines of 10% to 20% since 1945. Since World War II, no deep correction at the beginning of the year has been followed by another sell-off exceeding 10% in the same year.

As we approach the third full week of October, Netflix (NFL) and Tesla (TSLA) leads upcoming earnings move. It’s also a big week for defense, aerospace, mining and steelmaking stocks. It appears that some important inflation data will escape through the challenges of the government shutdown. A number of fast-moving stocks near buy points are also scheduled to be announced.

Stocks: Hot Picks in a Tough Market

The market rally is approaching record highs, but recent volatility has made new purchases difficult. However, a number of leaders have been hanging around buying points, including… Al-Naylam Pharmaceutical Company (Allen) Guardian health (g), Walmart (and died), Aviation FTAI (My boy) and Cloudflare (network). Alynylam, a profitable biotechnology company, narrowly climbed into buy territory after early buy signals emerged. Money-losing cancer diagnostics company Guardant reached a buy point and then pulled back. Walmart is a defensive play, but received an AI boost last week and rebounded from 10 weeks of support. FTAI Aviation is on a flat base while Cloudflare has just formed a flat base, after both posted strong advances.

Tesla stock holds near highs ahead of Q3 results; Netflix, Intel and IBM are also due

Stock Market Economics: Shedding Some Light on the Lockdown

The government shutdown could last longer, but the dearth of official economic data ends on Friday. The CPI for September is expected to show a 0.3% rise in core prices, excluding food and energy, according to FactSet. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.1% from 2.9%. A hot CPI won’t derail a Fed rate cut on October 29, when markets see 100% odds for another cut, but it could raise doubts about a third straight cut on December 10. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the CPI during the shutdown only because it is necessary to determine Social Security cost-of-living adjustments. The S&P Global PMI is due out on Friday.

Automakers: Can Tesla pass the Q3 test?

Tesla reports third-quarter earnings after the stock market closes on Wednesday. Investors are awaiting CEO Elon Musk’s comments on the rollout of robotics and the outlook for new vehicles and sales in the fourth quarter and 2026. Analysts expect third-quarter earnings per share to decline 26% to 54 cents with sales increasing nearly 4% to $26.27 billion. However, the Sharp Consensus, which tracks recent analyst revision trends for a more accurate estimate, expects earnings of 55 cents per share and revenue totaling $27.12 billion. With record vehicle deliveries and strong power deployment, Tesla could beat top and bottom line estimates. Shares are up nearly 9% this year.

Why is this market so dangerous? US-China talks, major profits due.

Entertainment: Netflix to update ad progress

Netflix will report third-quarter results late Tuesday. Analysts will focus on Netflix’s progress in expanding its ad-supported services, a key growth area. FactSet polls expect earnings of $6.96 per share on sales of $11.51 billion in the September quarter — gains of 29% and 17%. Popular Netflix content in Q3 included “Wednesday” Season 2, “Squid Game” Season 3, and the KPop movie “Demon Hunters.”

Defense & Aerospace: Buybacks are key in Q3 reports

Defense and aerospace leaders deliver a flurry of results this week. lockheed martin lmt, General Electric Aerospace (General Electric), RTX (RTX) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) Tuesday’s report, followed Teledyne Technologies (TDY) on Wednesday. Hexyl (Hexel) and Textron (TXT) Thursday report, with General dynamics (GD) Friday. Analysts expect a mixed bag for this quarter. For Lockheed Martin, RTX and Northrop Grumman, FactSet expects earnings to decline and revenue to rise. Views on the Middle East ceasefire and Treasury Secretary Scott Besent’s comments on limiting defense contractor stock buybacks will be interesting.

It’s also interesting that Axios is holding its Future of Defense Summit on Wednesday in Washington, DC. The event aims to take a deep dive into the development of defense technologies, and features representatives from various federal agencies, as well as members of congress and executives from companies including Palantir (PLTR) and Anduril.

How to read stock charts

Metal Mining: Obtaining dirt from gold, steel and copper

cleveland cliffs (CLF) Monday opens a big week for metals and miners. Analysts expect overall growth to rise by 7% and a smaller loss compared to the previous three quarters. Alcoa (AA) reports late Wednesday. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) releases its results on Thursday, with analysts expecting revenue to fall 1% after a mining disaster in Indonesia. The Q3 call will not be held until next month when FCX ​​can provide more clarity on the incident. Newmont (NEM), which reports late Thursday, is expected to report a 77% increase in earnings per share on revenue growth of 12%. FCX formed a double bottom base.

Stock market earnings summaries

Diagnostic Quest DGX will report third-quarter results before the stock market opens on Tuesday. Analysts surveyed by FactSet expect Quest to post adjusted earnings of $2.50 per share on sales of $2.74 billion, up 9% and 10%, respectively. Investors will likely focus on the financial impact of a joint venture signed in August with Corewell Health as well as comment on legislative bills related to Medicare reimbursement for diagnostic tests.

Valmont Industries (VMI) reports Tuesday. JPMorgan has an Overweight rating and a price target of $480 on the stock, implying a slight upside of about 19%. Shares are up nearly 23% from the June breakout, with a year-over-year gain of 31%.

J Vernova (GEV) reports third-quarter earnings before the stock market opens on Wednesday. The analyst consensus is for quarterly EPS growth to $1.72, up from a loss of 16 cents per share a year ago, with revenue increasing 2.6%. Investors will be looking to see if GEV raises its 2025 guidance again and should keep an eye on its backlog of natural gas turbines, which are filling up quickly due to electricity and artificial intelligence data center demand.

United Rentals (URI) reports third-quarter earnings and revenue late Wednesday. Analysts expect 4% growth in earnings per share and sales. Uncertainty over tariffs and the economic outlook have played into the company’s strengths, pushing consumers into rentals rather than purchases of heavy equipment. Caterpillar (CAT) announces its earnings on October 29th.

L Research (LRCX) will publish its first-quarter financial results late Wednesday. Analysts expect the semiconductor equipment company to earn $1.22 per share, up 41% year over year, on sales of $5.22 billion, up 25% in the September quarter.

Amphenol (APH) has a year-to-date gain of 81% ahead of third-quarter results on Wednesday. FactSet analysts expect earnings growth of 59% and revenue increase of 37%. Stocks are in a tight pattern for four weeks.

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