Stocks See Pressure as Reconciliation Bill Inches through Congress

The S&P 500 ($ Spy) (SPY) has decreased by -0.22 %, as the Dow Jones Industries ($ DowI) (DIA) +0.28 % increased, and the NASDAQ 100 ($ IUXX) (QQQ) -0.38 % decreased. Futures decreased in September (ESU25) by -0.24 %, and September E -Mini Nasdaq Futures (NQU25) decreased by -0.39 %.

Today’s stock indexes are mostly lower, as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are uniformity below their highest levels ever. Tesla decreased more than -6 % to lead the technology shares less and install them in the total market after President Trump threatened to withdraw subsidies from Elon Musk companies after Musk criticized the draft republican reconciliation law. The markets are also monitoring the progress made in commercial talks before President Trump’s deadline on July 9, and the congress roams the approval of the Trump’s draft law on spending.

The Senate is still considering the draft republican reconciliation law, as Treasury Minister Besent predicts the Senate of passing the draft law later today. The reconciliation bill has an increase in the roof of the debt necessary to avoid the failure to pay the treasury when the Treasury is running out of the borrowing authority somewhere between mid -August and late September. The dollar index has decreased to its lowest level in 3-1/3 years today, as the non-party Congress budget office estimates that the draft law will add approximately $ 3.3 trillion to the United States’ deficit during the next decade. After the Senate has passed the bill, it will return to the House of Representatives for consideration.

The best manufacturing news is expected from China to support global economic growth prospects. The China’s Participation Manager Index in June +2.1 to 50.4 has risen stronger than 49.3 expectations.

On the negative side of the stocks is the next profit season, which begins next week. Bloomberg Intelligence data shows that the C2 profits consensus for the S&P 500 companies for an altitude +2.8 % on an annual basis, which is the smallest increase in two years. Also, it is expected to publish six S&P 500 11 in profits, which is less since Q1 of 2023, according to the Yardeni search.

During this week, which was approved on the holiday, the markets will search for additional commercial news and authored, as well as applying for the Tax Law for President Trump. Later in the day, the June ISM manufacturing index is expected to climb by +0.2 to 48.7. Also, Jolts Jolts job opportunities are expected to decrease today to 91000 to 7.3 million. Finally, the President of the Federal Reserve Powell participates in a committee that discusses monetary policy with the governor of England Bank Billy, the head of the European Central Bank of Lagarde, and the ruler of Boch Oda in the annual decline of the European Central Bank in Portugal. On Wednesday, the ADP employment change is expected to increase in June by +90,000. On Thursday, the non -agricultural salaries in Jun are expected to fall by +113,000, and the June +0.1 employment rate is expected to rise to 4.3 %. Also, the average clock profit is expected to increase in June +0.3 % m/m and +3.8 % on an annual basis. In addition, it is expected that the weekly unemployment claims will climb +5,000 to 241,000, and you may expect the factory orders +8.1 %/m. Finally, the Jun ISM +0.7 service index is expected to climb to 50.6.

Future prices in federal funds make up 19 % to reduce the interest rate -25 basis points at the FOMC meeting 29-30 July.

Foreign stock markets today are mixed. Euro Stokes 50 decreased by -0.52 %. The Chinese Shanghai +0.39 % closed. Nikkei’s share in Japan closed 225 by -1.24 %.

Useful interest rates

September 10 from T -Notes (Znu25) today decreased by -3 ticks. The T-Note revenue increases for 10 years +0.4 BP to 4.232 %.

The Sep T-Notes decreased from the highest level in the two months of the day and turned into a decrease, and the T-Note returns for 10 years from the lowest level in two months at 4.185 % and turned up. Speculation has sparked that Congress is about to pass and spend President Trump’s bill has sparked a long liquidation in T-Notes. The Congress Budget Office estimates that the draft law will add approximately $ 3.3 trillion to deficit in the United States during the next decade, which will enhance the pressure of the offer as the treasury is forced to increase government debt sales to finance the deficit.

T-Note prices today increased today to support the movement of strength in European government bonds. T-Notes also climbs because positive commercial news has strengthened hopes for the smaller definitions of expected, which eased inflation fears and is bullish with T-Notes. In addition, the weakness of the stocks today strengthened the safe demand in the range on T-Notes.

European government bond returns today are moving to a decrease. German return has decreased for 10 years -4.3 BP to 2.564 %. The UK’s doctrine has decreased for 10 years to the lowest level in 8 weeks at 4.417 % and a -4.6 BP decreased to 4.443 %.

The consumer price index in the eurozone increased in June to +2.0 % year on an annual basis of +1.9 % on an annual basis in May, directly on expectations. The main consumer price index in June did not change 2.3 % on an annual basis, directly on expectations.

Inflationes in the consumer price index decreased unexpectedly to +2.8 % of +3.1 % in April, compared to not changing the +3.1 %. CPI forecasts for 3 years unexpectedly fell to +2.4 % of +2.5 % in April compared to non -change forecast at +2.5 %.

The manufacturer of the euro area manufacturer was revised in June to the top by +0.1 to 49.5 out of 49.4 previously.

German unemployment change increased in June +11000, indicating a stronger job market than +15000 expectations. The unemployment rate in June has not changed by 6.3 %, indicating a stronger labor market than 6.4 %.

The bares are due to 6 % deduction to reduce the interest rate by the European Central Bank at the Policy meeting on July 24.

American engines

Tesla decreased more than -6 % to lead the losers in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100, as President Trump threatened to withdraw government subsidies from Elon Musk companies after MUSK criticized the Trump bill and spent. Analysts estimate that changes in organizational credits can threaten up to 40 % of Tesla’s profits.

Weakness in chips stocks is a negative factor for the total market. Advanced fine devices (AMD) decreased by more than -2 %. Also, NVIDIA (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Lam Research (LRCX) and KLA Corp (Klac) decreased more than -1 %.

Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) has decreased more than 4 % after Holder Advance/Newhouse plans to sell up to $ 1.1 billion of its property in WBD via trade trade unregistered during the night.

Dyne Therapics (DYN) decreased by more than -7 % after offering 24.2 million shares of its shared shares in a public offer consisting of $ 8.25 per share, less than the closing price on Monday of $ 9.52.

AEROVIRONMENT (AVAV) decreased by more than -6 % after announcing 750 million dollars from its shared shares in a written year and $ 600 million of total transferred notes due 2020.

SweetGreen Inc (SG) decreased more than -5 % after TD Cowen reduced shares to keep them from buying.

The MacAu Casino operators listed in the United States climb today after the monthly game revenue in Macau +19 % Y/Y in June, the highest expectations of earning +9.4 % Y/Y. As a result, Wynn Resorts Ltd. (WYNN) More than +8 % to lead the winners in the S&P 500. Las Vegas Sands (LVS) also increased by more than +7 % and MGM Resorts International (MGM) more than +4 %.

NIKE (Nike) increased more than +3 % to lead the winners in Dow Jones Industries after upgrading Argus Research to the arrow to buy from Hold with a $ 85 target.

The Trade Office (TTD) increased by more than +2 % to lead the winners in NASDAQ 100 after Citibank raised its target price to $ 90 from $ 82.

HASBRO (HAS) increased more than +2 % after upgrading Goldman Sachs to the arrow to buy from Neutral with a $ 85 price goal.

The Ryder (R) system increased by more than +2 % after upgrading the Wolfe Research arrow to outperform the PEER performance with a price of $ 183.

CH Robinson Worldwide (Chrw) increased more than +1 % after upgrading WOLFE Research to the arrow to outperform peer performance with the price of $ 112.

Profit reports (7/1/2025)

Constellation Brands Inc (StZ), Greenbrier Cos Inc/The (GBX), MSC Industrial Direct Co (MSM), Techtarget Inc (TTGT).

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have positions (either directly or indirectly) in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are only for media purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com