Trump’s Copper Tariffs Won’t Fix U.S. Dependency on Foreign Imports

US President Donald Trump was the second commercial of this week, after reviving his plan for a comprehensive tariff in most of the world, he was announcing 50 percent import duties on copper, and they were afraid of the market as well as every company that uses the third important industrial mineral.

Trump noticed this week that his administration has concluded an investigation into Article 232 in copper imports, which pursues a threat to national security and will be treated with a sharp tariff starting from August 1. This was the first conclusion in many continuous commercial investigations of national security. Trump also made the idea of ​​customs tariffs by 200 percent on medicines, although these duties will come later, if it came at all. Trump chose the huge definitions of copper, as it was previously on steel and aluminum imports on the same causes of national security, indicating that other sectors are under investigation – including wood, semiconductor, and jet engines – will face a higher confrontation.

After that, US President Donald Trump commercials this week, after that Reflection His plan for universal definitions on most of the world was to announce 50 percent import duties on copper, exit from the market, as well as each company that uses the third most important industrial mineral.

Trump noticed this week that his administration was concluded to section 232 investigation In copper imports, which pose a threat to national security and will be addressed A severe tariff starting from August 1. This was the first conclusion in many investigations into the ongoing national security trade. Trump also made the idea of ​​customs tariffs by 200 percent on medicines, although these duties will come later, if it came at all. Trump chose the huge definitions of copper, as he previously imported from Steel and aluminum On the same causes of national security, it indicates that the other sectors Under investigation– Including wood, semiconductors, and jet engines – you will face a higher confrontation as well.

By raising taxes on American companies and consumers, the administration seeks to pay investment in the end to local copper mining, son -in -law and other productive activities. But all that is guaranteed in the short term is higher prices, especially for companies that depend on steel and copper. American copper prices struck Score After announcing the Trump tariff.

“I think it is an economic sabotage,” said Veronik de Roger, an economist at the Mercatos Center at George Mason University. “It is an economic sabotage in all ways in which you can use” sabotage “. It is not a good thinking, and it is reverse results.”

The idea that copper Imports, like many other commodities already or soon to be subject to import taxes under Article 232 of the 1962 commercial expansion law, is the issue of national security that has become more difficult for the Trump administration. It has already spanned the use of the national security security exception To the point of collapse You will likely go further with additional sectors.

When the investigation was announced in February, Trump He said Partial dependence on foreign copper sources “poses a direct threat to the national security of the United States and economic stability.” A month later, in the advertisement New measures To simplify local mining, he went further: “Our national and economic security has become strongly threatened by our dependence on the production of minerals hostile to foreign authorities.”

The “hostile forces” that provide almost full American copper importsAbout 900,000 metric tons last year, Canada, Chile, Peru and Mexico. The United States has a free trade agreement with each of them – or has done. (Divorce was conducted between reasonable reasons for conducting a customs tariff under American law and Trump’s approach to trade late on Wednesday, when it was Brazil’s threat By 50 percent of the customs tariff because this country is trying its former president to launch a failed coup after losing the elections.)

As for the problem of copper that aims to address the new customs tariff: the United States imports nearly half of the refined copper it uses, while it is more than one million tons annually. It is expected that the demand for copper will grow sharply – not only for traditional uses such as construction and electricity but also due to the rapid growth of electrical cars (batteries use a lot of copper), renewable energy (rural turbines, copper solar panels), and artificial intelligence (database works on copper).

S & P Global concluded in A. A big report Last year, if copper production in the United States is not strengthened in one way or another, dependence on import will rise to about 60 percent over the next decade. Even in the best scenario, whether due to the definitions or though, obtaining a few huge projects outstanding connected This contract will continue to depend on the import at about 30 percent. But all of these imports will be imposed significantly.

It is a global issue: due to the simultaneous absorption of new energy technologies and AI, as well as traditional economic growth, the demand for global copper is expected to increase by 70 percent by 2050.

But problems with copper supplies are It is not a result From any flood of cheap foreign copper. The definitions – which the importers and American companies, and not foreign countries – will pay little to change this. The United States has bucket loads – in fact, huge Truck– Copper and resources on Earth are more than Australia and Canada together.

However, mining output, in the United States and globally, does not keep up with the demand. This is partly because old mines chase low quality materials and partly because it takes years, if not-29 years on average in the United States-to obtain new mining projects from planning to production.

It is not only mines, though. Another part of the decline in the American copper industry this century is in melting and refining, and secondary operations. The American capacity has decreased in half since 2000, which means that even the US -drilling is often sent from the Earth, it should often be sent abroad for treatment. Unless this customs tariff deals with this in some way – and it is possible that if the mines begin to open up, the investment will start in the flow to a fuse and the like – then there is no real solution.

Trump administration The executive matter may start in March to simplify mining and mineral production on federal lands in dealing with some issues facing the copper industry. Mining companies say they are Climb On investing in the United States, especially With large protective walls to gather behind.

But even the rock industry, like the BHP, admit that they must keep it Return their expectations One of the new mining projects coming online for one reason or another. There is no one key to face.

What is noticeable in Trump’s tariff is the extent of already opposite results. There was Import flooding From copper to the United States early this year in an attempt to advance from the expected definitions. This has strengthened local stocks, but it is supposed to be the opposite of what the administration meant. As the price of copper increases, the construction of AI’s data centers, which is supposed to be one of the areas where the United States competes with China, will become. More expensive.

What’s more, the great suppliers such as Chile and Mexico this week said they are looking forward to this Exports turned For other huge buyers of copper who have no tariff. As if holding on half -copper in the world was not enough, China’s appetite for more copper is not really slowing. Electric cars, wind turbines, solar farms and large cities require huge amounts of metal.

“The administration believes that people will be on board with high costs or shortages,” said de Roger. “The only mandate they had the American people wanted to drop prices. So it is strange to wander this way.”

One of the things that has become clear with Trump’s use of definitions, whether in his first term, or his desire to force him to return the United States at the expense of imposing short -term costs on producers and consumers put the cart before the horse. Copper is more stable now, but any additional output is likely to come at the end of the nodes, if so. Pharmaceutical supply chains take years to reproduce, but the definitions may come sooner. There is a race to control semiconductors, but make their manufacture more expensive before any new factories appear to be built optimal.

“This is the failure of their entire project. Even if you are on the program, what you have to do is start the process, and then “I was put in place. I am just puzzling,” said De Roger.