Supply expectations high and demand expectations low

(Oil and Gas 360) – High supply expectations and low demand expectations, running meter For us, the supply demand data has been prepared to be discovered.

The price of crude oil in WTI reflects less than 60 dollars a lot of fear as well as news that Opec+ will increase production. The organization of the oil -exporting countries (OPEC), + from other global exporters who announced on Monday, that the production limits will increase 411,000 barrels per day in June, the immediate market price of the West Texas Eldedia Oil (WTI) is deviated to below $ 60 a barrel (Figure 1, Red Line). More supply in addition to inflation, tariffs, and stagnation of fears increased uncertainty also reduces demand expectations and exaggeration at the bottom.

While the price expectations are additional pressing, crude oil stocks in Kushing (where futures contracts are delivered) have decreased significantly. Crude oil stocks in Kusheng Oklahoma (where New York trading exchange [NYMEX] Futures contracts are delivered), and it decreased to a very low level with the start of the year (Figure 2, Red Line), the price of the WTI spot was stripped to $ 80 a barrel (Figure 1). Then it rose to an increase in early April helped move the price. However, this stock remains very low, and we expect: the decline is the next.

The drop in oil is assisted by increasing US crude oil stock since early January. However, it is now 21.2 MMB less than last year. The total US crude oil reserves helped decrease its lowest level in the year with the start of the year (Figure 3, Red Line) the price of the WTI height to $ 80 (Figure 1). Then it increased 31.4 million barrels (MMB) to 443.1 April 18, helped in deviation. The decrease to less than $ 60, although this stock, which has decreased 4.7 MMB, has decreased in the past two weeks, we encourage our conclusion that there is an exaggerated opportunity in prices.

The oil drop is also assisted by a thin analysis, most of them help to be aware that more crude oil is required to supply summer. The refinery that shows good growth on an annual basis (YOY) works in October to January (Figure 4, Red Line Vs. Blue) helped us commercial crude oil stocks show a good decrease in YOY to the lowest level in January (Figure 3). The YOY refinery operation helped to turn to a decrease in mid -March in low pressure and expectations. Now, the running should increase to supply the summer, with an increase in the hours of the sun and encourages a lot of exit.

By oilandgas360.com, shareholder Michael Smolinxi with energy trends

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