Tariffs, Trump and the tightrope India must walk

Commercial talks between India and the United States are parked, soaked on a familiar dead end. There is no deal on the table – only a 25 % tariff wall, with penalties at the top. Other countries have already declined. China, armed with rare land dominance, has cut a positive deal. India does not have this luxury – or those minerals.

Washington’s demands are frank: zero ranks, full arrival in the market, and no exceptions to sensitive sectors such as textiles and cars. There is no Asian bus, no medium floor.

Donald Trump’s message is simple – a deal or a deal. But this is not a binary option; It is an uncomfortable pressure. The definitions are tactics, not the goal. Its strategy is to continue pressing India in an angle.

This is not only about trade. Trump’s global vision coloring his position. He believes that Russia should “restore” its place on the world stage. In his vision, when the Ukraine war ends, Moscow re -provokes stronger – India is expected to absorb the effects of ripples: more defensive spending, more arms purchases, and even whispers of new foreign bases on the soil.

At the present time, the time is the shield of India. Oil disorders and tariff maneuvers may be reduced in Russia within two or three months, and New Delhi may absorb the current pain until October. But in the end, reality will be set. A approximate fee of the already visible settlement: a 19-20 % tariff system, acceptance of American product standards (with genetically modified goods), and some front loaded identification cuts.

However, the different paradox – many American products will remain very expensive for Indian buyers, which leads to the dismantling of some Washington’s ambitions.

If a deal comes, it will not be great. India is likely to end up buying more American defense systems, energy, and perhaps even nuclear supplies. But you should face difficult facts. India cannot invest freely in the United States, we do not have rare land or other critical resources that bring bargaining power. We are neither economic nor military assumptions. We are still besieged by hostile neighbors.

This will not be the comprehensive free trade agreement that the headlines dream – just an understanding, imposed by customs and bureaucrats, and turns easily when Trump leaves his position.

For this reason, real work should start at home. India must strengthen its economy – and make it really competitive. This means shielding from dumping, chasing new markets, and building partnerships in the south of the south that gives us influence that we currently lack.

The United States will continue to pressure. Definitions and fall will rise. Dealms and Unmade will be made. But in the end, India must decide whether it wants to remain a price company in global trade-or start writing the price marks themselves.

(The author is a former secretary, economic affairs, Goi)