Thai-Cambodia Peace Deal In Tatters

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This week’s highlights: Thailand and Cambodia Skirmishes on the border againIndonesia and Australia Signing a security agreement, Rohingya drowning off the coast Malaysia and Indonesia are controversial names Suharto is a national hero.

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Thailand and Cambodia witnessed renewed violence last week, with the collapse of the ceasefire that ended their border conflict in late July.

The first strike came on Monday, November 10, when four Thai soldiers were hit by a landmine in the border area.

Landmines were a major factor in the violence that broke out in July. Thailand has repeatedly accused Cambodia of planting new mines in disputed areas. Cambodia denied these accusations, claiming that the mines were old remnants of past wars.

According to the Malaysian Foreign Minister, the landmine was new, although it was not confirmed who planted it. (Malaysia has been leading the observer group of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, examining the implementation of the ceasefire.)

The result was that Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul suspended the peace agreement reached at the ASEAN summit.

Wednesday saw an exchange of gunfire along the border, killing at least one Cambodian villager. Both sides accused the other of opening fire first. Cambodia also accused Thailand of deliberately shooting civilians, which Thailand denied.

Anutin, meanwhile, struck a tough tone and added that he was not concerned about the tariffs imposed by the United States in response to his tearing up the peace agreement.

Fortunately, there have been no new clashes since Wednesday. On Friday, US President Donald Trump told reporters that he was optimistic that things would be okay after speaking to the leaders of the two countries.

Once again, Trump appears to be relying on trade and tariffs to force peace. The Thai Foreign Ministry confirmed on Saturday that the United States had suspended negotiations on a reciprocal tariff agreement pending Thailand’s return to the peace agreement.

Anutin seems to be relying on his ability to separate the two issues. On Sunday, he told Thai media that Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim told him that Trump promised not to link the tariff issue to peace.

Anutin’s critics accused him of adopting a hard-line stance towards Cambodia for reasons of political expediency. The Prime Minister’s political situation is very precarious. His right-wing populist party leads a minority government that relies on a confidence-and-supply agreement with Thailand’s largest progressive party, which promised constitutional reform and new elections within four months.

Some believe that the Prime Minister is deliberately stirring up nationalist sentiment in order to enhance his image and electoral chances.

Such nationalist sentiments also play a role in Cambodia. Some analysts have suggested that the Hun family is using nationalism to secure its grip on power, with leadership officially passing from Hun Sen to his son Hun Manet in 2023. If Cambodia plants new mines, this would indicate recklessness. Although things were worse in July, Cambodia appears more keen on a peace deal and has lavished praise on Trump for his interventions.

Indonesia, Australia and the new defense agreement. Under the terms of the new defense agreement, Indonesia and Australia will consult regularly on common security issues and “adverse challenges faced by either party or their common security interests and, if appropriate, consider measures that can be taken either individually or jointly”.

In a joint press conference, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese hailed the agreement as a “watershed moment.” Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto was more moderate, saying the treaty “reaffirms” the close relationship between the two countries. The two countries already have a security agreement, the 2006 Lombok Treaty.

What does this new agreement add? The language used to talk about opposing challenges and joint action is supposedly based on the 1995 Suharto-Keating Agreement, from which Indonesia withdrew in 1999, angered by Australia’s leadership role in the UN peacekeeping force sent to East Timor. For Australia, the 1995 agreement, closely modeled on the ANZUS Agreement with the United States and New Zealand, was about getting as close as possible to a mutual defense agreement with strongly non-aligned Indonesia. The motivation then was concern about the escalation of long-term strategic commitment by China and the United States to the region. For Australia, these topics are becoming more urgent, so the goal and interpretation on the Australian side seems the same as it was in 1995. However, Indonesia currently seems to view the treaty as just another part of its non-aligned policy, building good relations with Australia even while purchasing aircraft from China.

Rohingya drowning off the coast of Malaysia. Thai and Malaysian authorities announced that the death toll of Rohingya refugees whose boat capsized on November 7 off the coast of Langkawi, Malaysia, has now reached 28. Dozens of others are still missing.

Refugee numbers are unusually high this sailing season, with Malaysian officials saying 217 Rohingya and other Myanmar nationals have already arrived in Langkawi in 2025 after two years of minimal landings. More on the way. Experts say one motivating factor is US cuts in food aid reaching refugee camps that house more than a million refugees in Bangladesh.

Drinking laws in Thailand are floundering. Thailand moved hastily on November 13 to amend a new law restricting drinking hours and imposing fines on rule-breakers after a backlash from businesses who claim it will hurt Thailand’s most important tourism sector. The government has said it will postpone plans to impose fines on drinkers between 2pm and 5pm, but businesses remain concerned that widespread international reports of alcohol bans will hurt tourism – and want the government to finalize new drinking-friendly regulations soon.

About 650,000 members of the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), the Philippines’ answer to Mormonism but more cult-like, attended an anti-corruption rally in Manila on Sunday. Public sentiment was outraged by corruption in flood control projects even as hurricanes swept through the country.

The INC is politically influential and able to deliver the bloc’s votes to politicians. She has supported President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr., but is closer to Vice President Sara Duterte, holding a massive rally in support of her in January this year when Marcos’ allies floated her impeachment.

Mai Nguyen, Yugi Nita, and Kenya Akama dive into Vietnam’s national electric vehicle champion, VinFast, which now accounts for 30 percent of all vehicle sales in Vietnam, in Nikki Asia.

“This is where the former president and I are [Duterte] I started – because I dared to investigate the killings carried out by death squads there in his area. Leila de Lima, the prominent Filipino politician imprisoned for years on false charges under former President Rodrigo Duterte, gave a lengthy interview to The Guardian. Mekong Review.

“You either die a hero, or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain, or you live longer and become Juan Ponce Enrile.” Dexter Cabalza presents an obituary for His Eminence the Filipino politician who helped establish and dismantle the dictatorship, V Philippine Daily Inquirer.

For Indonesia to officially declare former President Suharto a national hero, as it did last week, has always been controversial. The argument is partly historical. Is Suharto the man who saved Indonesia from communism and the father of development, or is he the dictatorial supervisor of the bloody purges and invasion of East Timor in 1965?

What is crucial now is not only what he did, but what being declared a hero means in political terms. Critics see the move taken by Prabowo – Suharto’s former son-in-law – as an attempt to “legitimize” Suharto and revive his dictatorship. Prabowo, however, is openly skeptical of “Western-style” democracy.

But there are good reasons to be skeptical that this represents a radical shift toward a return to the Suharto Doctrine.

First, critics’ talk about the dangers of legitimizing Suharto ignores the fact that he was never delegitimized in the first place. Yes, the 1998 revolution forced him to resign and democratized Indonesia. But Suharto was never cursed.

Retire in wealth and comfort. Attempts to prosecute him were dropped. The presidents who succeeded him showed deliberate expressions of respect for him. A 2020 poll showed him as the most popular leader in Indonesia.

Second, the nine other figures declared national heroes at the same time indicate that Prabowo wants a unified image, not a Suhartoian one. Those inclined to political anthropology may recall scholar Benedict Anderson’s comment that the main characteristic of a strong person in Javanese culture is the ability to “focus within oneself apparently hostile opposites.”

In addition to Suharto, there were some supporters of his regime. But also on the list were Abdurrahman Wahid, also known as Gus Dur – Indonesia’s first democratic president after Suharto – and Marcina, the labor activist who was murdered during the Suharto era.

Finally, although Prabowo has moved effectively to consolidate power during the first year of his presidency, the emergence of a new Suharto doctrine seems unlikely at the present time. The Indonesians who supported Prabowo in large numbers are also ardent democrats. The system of decentralization with competitive local elections is under pressure but remains a safeguard against decline. The fact that Prabowo is in his 70s also makes a 30-year presidency unlikely.