The Biggest Hurdles to the Next Phase

Israel and Hamas on Wednesday reached an agreement to advance the initial phase of US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, which will see the release of all remaining hostages in the coastal enclave in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, as well as a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Israelis and Palestinians are cautiously celebrating the agreement, which paves the way for a ceasefire and further negotiations that could lead to a permanent end to the two-year-old war. Even after Trump announced the agreement, the IDF reportedly continued to launch strikes in Gaza, a sign of Israel’s willingness to continue the war against Hamas if negotiations fail in the coming days.

Israel and Hamas on Wednesday reached an agreement to advance the initial phase of US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, which will see the release of all remaining hostages in the coastal enclave in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, as well as a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces.

Israelis and Palestinians are cautiously celebrating the agreement, which paves the way for a ceasefire and further negotiations that could lead to a permanent end to the two-year-old war. Even after Trump announced the agreement, the IDF reportedly continued to launch strikes in Gaza, a sign of Israel’s willingness to continue the war against Hamas if negotiations fail in the coming days.

But the ceasefire is scheduled to begin tomorrow if the Israeli government votes to approve the deal on Thursday. Shosh Bedrosian, spokesman for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said that after the start of the ceasefire, Hamas will have 72 hours to return all the hostages. Bedrosian also said that Israel would withdraw to a line in Gaza that would leave it in control of approximately 53% of the territory.

Trump said on Thursday that the hostages should be released on Monday or Tuesday. He also indicated that he would likely travel to the Middle East in the coming days to officially sign the peace agreement.

If the truce holds, it will bring much-needed relief to Palestinians in Gaza after 24 months of devastating fighting that is estimated to have killed more than 67,000 people and left the enclave in ruins. Aid organizations are also optimistic that the ceasefire will help increase the flow of much-needed supplies and aid into Gaza, where famine was declared in August.

Despite the sense of optimism heralded by the agreement on “Phase One” of Trump’s plan, there are still many hurdles to overcome in terms of reaching the next phase and the ultimate goal of ending the war. It is also unclear precisely what the next phase of this process will look like, given the large gaps remaining between the warring parties.

Here are the biggest obstacles to moving forward:

Disarm Hamas. Hamas has not yet agreed to lay down its arms as part of the peace agreement, which is among the requirements of the 20-point plan that Trump unveiled last Monday.

Israel launched the war on Gaza with the aim of destroying the militant group following the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023. While it is widely agreed that completely eliminating the group and its ideology is impossible, disarmament would provide the kind of security guarantees that Israel wants as part of any final agreement. Israel was clear that it would not sign any agreement that did not require Hamas to disarm.

Although Trump’s proposal offers amnesty to Hamas members in exchange for them disarming and committing to peace, the militant group would be wary of doing so because it has long derived its legitimacy from fighting and poses a threat toward Israel, a state that Hamas was committed to destroying when it was founded in the late 1980s. Some reports suggest that Hamas may be open to partial disarmament, but anything less than complete disarmament is unlikely to be ever acceptable to the Israeli government. “Hamas must disarm,” Gideon Saar, Israeli Foreign Minister, told Fox News before the Cabinet vote on Trump’s plan.

Saar also said that Israel is committed to the Trump plan and does not intend to renew the war. But if Hamas does not give up its weapons, it could provide Israel with justification to resume its attack on Gaza.

Post-war governance in Gaza. Trump’s plan stipulates that a technocratic committee of Palestinians would temporarily take over day-to-day administration in Gaza. An international transitional body, headed by Trump, will oversee this body and the redevelopment of Gaza. Under the plan, the United States will also cooperate with Arab and international partners to immediately deploy a temporary international stabilization force, which will train and assist vetted Palestinian police forces in the area.

Hamas, which has ruled Gaza since 2007, has indicated that it is prepared to hand over management of the Strip to a technocratic body. But this does not mean that Hamas agreed to give up all power and play no role in governing Gaza after the war. Israel and the United States insist that Hamas cannot retain power in any capacity after the war.

Although Hamas has been greatly diminished after two years of fighting, estimates indicate that the armed group still has about 15,000 fighters. Even if it agrees to give up power on paper, it is difficult to see Hamas disappearing completely.

For all these reasons and more, the future of governance in Gaza will be a thorny issue in the upcoming negotiations — especially as Western governments push for the inclusion of the Palestinian Authority and a two-state solution, two possibilities that Netanyahu opposes.

Israeli withdrawal. Trump’s plan calls for a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The White House recently released a map showing the line to which Israeli forces will withdraw as part of the initial phase. But the exact boundaries of the Israeli withdrawal and the timetable for the withdrawal remain unclear.

Although Hamas insists on Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza to ensure that the war does not resume, Netanyahu also recently indicated that a complete withdrawal is not on the table. This issue is set to be a sticking point in the upcoming talks.

The Israeli extreme right. Netanyahu leads a fragile coalition government, and there are questions about whether it will collapse as a result of this deal. Members of the far-right, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, expressed their opposition to Trump’s plan and indicated that they might leave the government because of the agreement. But Israeli opposition leaders offered Netanyahu a security network to complete the agreement, while indicating that they would later take steps to overthrow the government.

While Netanyahu has been accused of prolonging the war in Gaza to keep his coalition together and maintain power, it is too early to say whether the prospect of the collapse of his government and early elections will lead the prime minister to take steps to derail the deal. With Trump personally invested in this plan — while seeking a Nobel Peace Prize — Netanyahu is also under significant pressure from the leader of Israel’s largest ally to continue the process.