The end of American exceptionalism goes way beyond Trump

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The writer is the head of Rockefeller International. His last book is’What is wrong with capitalism?‘

Many of the same people who elected Donald Trump to the White House see a big boost to the “American exception” now that the recent decline in American stocks and the dollar as a sign that this era of the dominance of the United States is threatened. They also link this sudden turn to Trump. If it is not for daily drama in Washington, they seem to believe, that the American markets will continue to escape from the rest of the world.

However, the bubble in the American exceptional, precedes the second period of Trump. After building in global markets for years, classic signs of their peak showed after his , when many seemed convinced that the president’s new policies would attract more capital for the United States. But such an irrational abundance was bound by pop on the first sharp pin. If the turbulent turbide turbulence was not, some other shocks would have provoked investors to rethink their high records of their American assets.

Even after the decreases of last month, the real value of the dollar is still rarely seen since the end of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s. Meanwhile, the S& P 500 has decreased less than 10 percent of the February Summit and is still circulating by 25 percent over the rising trend over the past 150 years.

Despite the acute gathering in European and Chinese stocks this year, American stocks are estimated at 50 percent over international markets – near the widest expected customers. America’s share of the main global market standard is still more than 60 percent, although its share of global GDP is much lower than 30 percent.

In short, it has begun to balance the late global markets, and is likely to play for a long time.

Among the main headlines, you may think that investors are wondering about the full US domination of Trump’s tariff and the uncertainty surrounding its policies. However, the noise was built around the American exceptional on the superior American economic growth, which was suffering from huge spending artificially and unprecedented prosperity in capitalist spending in artificial intelligence. This American economy had not been dependent on the government before, and the budget deficit was not operated by 6 percent sustainable. Meanwhile, the recent financial reforms in Germany, and the launching of low -cost artificial intelligence models in China, shows that the rest of the world can compete with the United States.

To date, the rapid crowd led shares, including hedge boxes. Many others have not yet followed. Although consumer surveys and small businesses show low confidence, American retailers continue to buy a decrease. They have poured more money in American stocks every day (but one) since the prices reached its climax at the end of last month. Often, they use the most aggressive vehicles available, such as the circulating investment boxes.

Foreign investors, from Australian pension funds to Japanese insurance companies, continue to transfer money to the United States as well. In recent years, more than 80 percent of the money invested in stock market funds has gone around the world to the United States. After more than three times the US stock holders to 20 trips over the past decade, foreigners now have 30 percent of the American stock market, which is a record number.

Looking at their budget views on the dollar, they hardly surrounded them, leaving the American currency is weak ever. For decades, the country runs a major deficit in international investment, which means that Americans have much lower assets abroad than foreigners in the United States. At the beginning of this contract, this deficit reached 50 percent of GDP, a level often indicating a decrease in currency in the past. Today, the deficit is wider, at 80 percent of GDP, while other advanced economies often manage surpluses.

In the past, stocks all over the world tend to achieve well when the US market was good, badly when the country was bad. This tie has recently broken, as the noise around America has absorbed money and life from other markets. The link remains broken, now the United States and a few other countries stumble with it.

European stock markets had the best month for foreign flows in a decade. Japan attracts flows as well. Emerging markets are no longer decreased with the US market. And since the questions related to American economic and hematology have spread to the wide bloc of investors all over the world, the noise for the American exceptional will continue to fade. It may be difficult to believe that many of the forces they play are greater than Trump.