The Fed is listening to Trump but will likely make him wait anyway

Investors agree: The futures market in the Federal Reserve Fund predicts the opportunity of 97 % of the basic interest rate that is kept at 4.25 % to 4.5 % this month. However, the market itself shows a 58 % chance to reduce 0.25 % in September, the next time that the Federal Reserve meets after this month.

This does not mean that Powell and Al -Lakki ignore the seizures of approximately daily seizures on the social truth. How can they? Trump’s latest post is called Powell as “the worst Federal Reserve Speaker in History.”

Republican MP Anna Polina has asked the Ministry of Justice to investigate whether Powell had committed the right to describe him to congress for the renovations that were held on the Federal Reserve Building. (The referral is unlikely to lead to an actual court case.)

Although the market is now accustomed to this type of deprived, it deserves to remind ourselves that it is historically unprecedented to an American president and his supporters to attack the Central Bank President in this way. A recent note from the macroeconomic economy called “Farcical”, “SIDSHOW” and “Lunacy”.

However, despite the chaos, it appears that the FOOC Open Market (FOMC) is listening to the argument that interest rates should be reduced soon.

“Since the FOMC meeting June, most FOMC participants have repeated President Powell’s comment that” as long as the American economy is in a strong condition, we believe that the wise thing that must be done is waiting and knowing more, and knowing what [the tariffs’] The effects may be, “although a few participants suggested that the time to control the monetary policy position may come close,” according to Jessica Rendles of Goldman Sachs, where she wrote in a memorandum of customers this morning.

While the conservatives [Michelle] Bowman and [Christopher] Waller said they would support the reduction in the FOMC meeting in July, other participants suggested that they expect the next pieces to come later, given that inflation is still higher than the goal while the labor market appears healthy and uncertainty about the inflationary effects of definitions.

The internal discussion of the Federal Reserve is whether Trump’s tariff has produced one time for inflation that will disappear or have the effect always, according to Rindels. The federal reserve warned against warning this decision because, badly, it is believed that inflation after the judgment will fade quickly-and he did not.

So it appears that the Federal Reserve will keep it in July and drop in September. There is one factor that moves in favor of a price reduction: inflation in the housing sector is declining, which may give Powell et al elfue room that they are looking for to reduce rates.

“One of the chrome rest for the federal reserve, amid attacks by President Trump and the dilemma of the policy sparked by the definitions, is the additional decrease in inflation in housing, measured by the components of the ownership of the consumer price index and the main rewards.” “The large weight of housing in the consumer price index – a third of the address index and 40 % of the nucleus – has shaved a decrease in housing in housing 0.2p of the address rate in 2025 so far, and 0.25PP of the basic rate.”

Here is a snapshot of the procedure before the opening bell in New York:

• S & P 500 futures contracts It rose 0.32 % this morning after the index reached the highest new level, to 6,309.62, an increase of 0.06 % yesterday.
• UK FTSE 100 It was higher than 9000, an increase of 0.46 % in 9,064.70 in early trading.
• Stoxx Europe 600 It increased by 0.87 % in early trading.
• Japan Nikki 225 3.51 % increased on the commercial deal news.
• China CSI 300 Index It was 0.02 %.
• Bitcoin It is still above 118 thousand dollars.