The Philippines May Turn Its Back on the U.S. Again – Foreign Policy

Filipino President Sarah Deuttri, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Deuttri, is currently the first stage that wins the upcoming presidential elections in the country in 2028, according to a recent poll. Dotte, whose nomination has not yet announced, reduced the results and noted that 2028 is still far away. But its political power cannot be denied now. Her coalition has achieved great gains in congress elections in the middle of the period in May against the opposition groups of President Ferdinand Marcus Junior (yes, you read properly-the president and the vice president are from various political parties.) Since the Philippine constitution prevents presidents from searching for more than six years of the term, and this removes Marcus effectively, which he is from among the opponent. Assuming that it runs – the main slide exchange between now and the elections – is likely to become the next Philippine president.

Because of this scenario, every conversation was with us with us and the Asian interlocutors about the Philippines in recent years has sparked the same uncomfortable strategic question: Will Sarah Doterti return to her father’s friendly policies in China and her doubts in the United States?

Filipino President Sarah Deuttri, the daughter of former President Rodrigo Deuttri, is currently the first stage that wins the upcoming presidential elections in the country in 2028, according to a recent poll. Dotte, whose nomination has not yet announced, reduced the results and noted that 2028 is still far away. But its political power cannot be denied now. Her coalition has achieved great gains in Congress elections in the middle of the period in May against the opposition groups of President Ferdinand Marcus Junior (yes, you read properly-the president and the vice president are from various political parties.) Since the Philippine constitution prevents presidents from searching for more than six years of the term, and this removes Marcus effectively, which he is from among the opponent. Assuming that it runs – the main slide exchange between now and the elections – is likely to become the next Philippine president.

Because of this scenario, every conversation was with us with us and the Asian interlocutors about the Philippines in recent years has sparked the same uncomfortable strategic question: Will Sarah Doterti return to her father’s friendly policies in China and her doubts in the United States?

The answer was very mysterious, because the younger Dutete had no big record in this case. But recently, she showed her hand, and revealed that she could not be a slice of ancient block than Marcus.

Before a series of statements that I made last month, Manila and Washington were already fears that Dotte would not be harsh in China like Marcus. In April 2024, for example, she responded with “no comment” when she was asked about the Chinese harassment of the Philippine ships in the South China Sea – a generally safe issue to address in the Philippines, whose people and leaders doubt a overwhelming majority of Biking’s motives and activities. Journalists referred to a statement made by her brother Paulo Deutti, who said it was not a “demonic” role.

Last month, Dotti argued that the Marcus administration, which is working in it, was strongly given the US Security Alliance for relations with China. Instead, I believed that Manila should not be a “medium strength in the game of excellence and domination” between Beijing and Washington. Doterti referred to the Philippine constitution to inspire her; She said that the document “clearly states that we must have an independent foreign policy” instead, as Marcus did, “tends towards the United States to our problems with China, especially our issues in the Western Philippine Sea,” according to an interview with the American anti -outlets, previously known as the name Russia today. A few days ago, in a letter to the Philippines in Melbourne, Australia, Dotti implicitly criticized Manila’s acceptance of Washington’s development of the Tivon missiles in northern Luzon, who angered Beijing.

Other Philippine leaders have shown great anger at Dotte Policy. Marcus dismantled her as a “pro -religion”. Meanwhile, the deputy leader of the majority of the House of Representatives in the country noted that she was always silent on the Chinese penetration in the South China Sea, saying that her only response was “to blame on [Philippines’] Leadership. “It was indicated by the representative of the elected house in the name of” traitor. “

But Dotrt will not be presented in submission. She replied to Marcus’s claim, for example, saying, “They have pushed that narration for a long time, that I am a supporter of the two religious.

Dutete’s stated policy position is certain. Small and medium-sized countries in the Pacific Ocean and around the world should define how they will match the United States of China’s competition-whether by seeking to agree strategically with one great power over the other or by compatible with no in an attempt to go to trouble and seize both. If Duterte is elected, it is about to follow this remaining unacceptable worn path, which is also common throughout Southeast Asia and the wider global south.

However, the real concern in Manila, Washington, and other friendly capitals, is that the Duttrt policies may go beyond incompatibility and end up to her father’s policies. As President from 2016 to 2022, Rodrigo Deuttri did not argue that the Philippines should have less dependence on the United States and its security guarantees, but also upgraded and implemented a supportive approach. He supported initiatives such as the joint exploration of the South China Sea with China, (which eventually walked support), as well as developing investment and new infrastructure through the Beijing Belt initiative and the road initiative to complete the “construction and construction” policy.

At the same time, he constantly threatened to back down from the security alliance with the United States. In February 2020, he officially submitted a notice of its intention to cancel the US -visiting forces’ agreement, an important agreement that allows the American army to deploy it smoothly in the Philippines, although it eventually retreated. The improved defense cooperation agreement, which allows the US military to reach five allocated bases (now nine) across the Philippines, has also been informed, until it finally retreated.

In the end, the policies of Rodrigo Duttiti, supporting and opposed to the United States, were exciting to create. On the days of his term, his position was greatly reflected because of his lack of popularity among people. As for Sarah Doterti, it is very likely that she will meet any reconsideration of her father’s foreign policy while deepening anxiety between the United States and its allies and partners in the region while trying to retreat against China.

If she becomes president in 2028, it is still not clear whether the positions of Dotrt’s policy will be translated into naked-or whether she will follow her father in implementing procedures for us. In fact, this is the new question that should leak around the Indian Pacific Ocean and in the United States: To what extent will my Deitti remain loyal to it in the end about the position of not recovering in the foreign policy of the Philippines? This question will have to wait until 2028 for an answer.