This special election in a deep-red district sets up another big test for Trump

The race is the first for federal office since the Nov. 4 election, when Democrats won victories that were framed as a referendum on Trump. Now Republicans want to change the story, pouring money into the campaign and inviting Trump to visit the state after holding a virtual rally last week.

Failing to run up the score — or worse, losing the seat — would be a sign of weakness, which would embolden Democrats in their attempt to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. If places like Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District appear within reach, the party could expand its list of targets next year.

MAGA Inc., the super PAC supporting Trump, has announced spending more than $1 million so far to support Matt Van Epps, the Republican candidate and former Army helicopter pilot who served combat tours overseas. This is the first time the organization has participated in a campaign since last year’s presidential race.

With the election coming just days after Thanksgiving, Rep. Tim Burchett, a Republican from Tennessee, said: “I’m very concerned that we might be caught flat-footed.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment on Trump’s request to campaign for Van Epps, which was revealed by two people with knowledge of the matter who were not authorized to speak publicly.

State Rep. Aftin Behn, a Democratic candidate and progressive community organizer, is getting national support of her own, including a recent visit from party Chairman Ken Martin and $1 million in television and digital ads from the House Majority PAC on Friday.

The Tennessee Democratic Party hosted Harris at the start of the vote count Tuesday while she was in Nashville on her book tour. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee said it did not invite the former vice president, who did not appear with Behn even though they spoke at different times at the same event.

Libby Schneider, deputy executive director at the Democratic National Committee, said Behn’s strong performance — even if she doesn’t win — will strengthen the party as it tries to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives next year.

“We continue to over-perform in places where we are not over-performing,” Schneider said.

In four previous House special elections completed this year, the Democratic nominee exceeded Harris’ share of the vote by an average of 9 percentage points.

A sudden retirement and then a race for the seat

Tennessee held a special election after Republican Rep. Mark Green, first elected in 2018, retired earlier this year.

Greene won the district by 21 percentage points in 2024, and Trump scored by a similar margin. It was one of three seats redrawn in 2022 redistricting that attempted to undermine the influence of Nashville, the state’s largest city and a Democratic stronghold.

Van Epps, the state’s former public services commissioner, sided closely with Trump, whose endorsement helped him win a crowded primary.

“I will support you 100%,” he told the president during the virtual rally. He pledged to focus on cutting costs and helping veterans, as well as supporting Trump’s immigration measures and rules preventing transgender women from playing on women’s sports teams.

Behn, a self-described “angry social worker,” narrowly won all four Democratic primaries. She supported Bernie Sanders in the 2020 presidential primary, and was removed from the Tennessee House gallery in 2019 for ranting in protest against the former House speaker.

Like Democrats who emerged victorious in New Jersey, Virginia and elsewhere earlier this month, Behn was discussing concerns about affordability. She has reiterated her proposal to eliminate the state tax on groceries.

“We have built a coalition of the disillusioned,” Behn said at a recent rally in Nashville. “If you’re upset about the cost of living and chaos in Washington, we’re your campaign.”

Behn condemned Trump’s tax and spending legislation known as the “Big Beautiful Bill” and his tariffs, both of which Van Eps supports. She also criticized Republicans’ reluctance to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein, the sex offender who was known for his ties to the rich and powerful.

Van Epps originally opposed the House vote to force the Justice Department to release more documents, but changed his position to reflect Trump after the president backed the measure this week.

High risks bring big money

Democratic allies hope to undermine Van Epps by promoting John Thorpe, the conservative independent candidate in the race. Your Community Political Action Committee, which has spent more than $16 million supporting Democratic candidates across the country since last year, is sending out mailers encouraging Republicans to vote for Thorpe by calling Van Epps a “hedge fund billionaire-backed RINO.”

The bulk of the PAC’s funding came from the North Fund, a nonprofit umbrella group for center-left advocacy organizations.

The Conservative Party for American Excellence, backed by mega donor Ken Griffin, is spending more than $600,000 on ads opposing Behn, according to a campaign finance report filed this week.

Club for Growth, a pro-school group that was heavily involved during the primary, is targeting Behn over past statements in which she described herself as an “extremist.” The group has spent $300,000 on advertising so far.

Chip Saltsman, a political strategist from Tennessee who was not involved in the race, said the large number of spending does not change his prediction that Van Epps will win. But it may not reach the previous margins.

He suggested Republicans take “a couple more doses of Pepto-Bismol on Election Night.”

This situation can cause “a little heartburn, but they do everything they have to do.”