Does Europe Finally Realize It’s Alone?

Europeans have been lulled into believing that US president Donald Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent, but ultimately manageable. This is strangely reassuring, but wrong. From US Vice President J.D. Vance’s Europe-vilifying speech at the Munich Security Conference in February, to the new US National Security Strategy released on December 4, the Trump administration has long had a clear and consistent vision for Europe: one that prioritizes US-Russian relations and seeks to divide and conquer the continent, with much of the dirty work done by far-right nationalist European powers that now enjoy support from both Moscow and Washington. It will be a long time before Europe realizes that it is alone at best when it comes to the war between Russia and Ukraine and the continent’s security. At worst, it now faces two rivals: Russia in the east and the United States, led by Trump, in the west.

Every time Trump or members of his administration attack Europe, including Ukraine, the Europeans absorb the blow with a forced smile and bend over backwards to curry favor with the White House. They believe this is a clever ploy, exploiting Trump’s incoherence and arrogance to bring him back into the transatlantic fold. Yet every time Trump has turned his narrow attention to the Ukrainian war, he has sided with Russia — from the Oval Office trap set for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in February, to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s red carpet in Alaska in August, to the 28-point “peace plan” that was likely written in Moscow. On each occasion, the Europeans took the hit, busy keeping Washington engaged and salvaging what remained of the transatlantic ties. The Europeans have made so many blushes at Trump that one wonders if there are any left at all.

Europeans have been lulled into believing that US President Donald Trump is unpredictable and inconsistent, but ultimately manageable. This is strangely reassuring, but wrong. From a speech by US Vice President J.D. Vance Discredit Europe at the Munich Security Conference in February for a new US national security strategy who was released On December 4, the Trump administration had long had a clear and consistent vision for Europe: the first Which gives priority to relations between the United States and Russia and seeks to divide and conquer the continent, With much of the dirty work carried out by far-right nationalist European powers who now enjoy support from both Moscow and Washington. It will be a long time before Europe realizes that it is alone at best when it comes to the war between Russia and Ukraine and the continent’s security. At worst, it now faces two rivals: Russia in the east and the United States, led by Trump, in the west.

Every time Trump or members of his administration attack Europe, including Ukraine, the Europeans absorb the blow with a forced smile and bend over backwards to curry favor with the White House. They believe this is a clever ploy, exploiting Trump’s incoherence and arrogance to bring him back into the transatlantic fold. However, every time Trump turned his narrow attention to the Ukraine war, he sided with Russia—from the beginning The Oval Office Trap He is scheduled to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky next February Red carpet Which was presented to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last August, to the 28-point “peace plan” that was likely to be reached. Written in Moscow. On each occasion, the Europeans took the hit, busy keeping Washington engaged and salvaging what remained of the transatlantic ties. The Europeans have made so many blushes at Trump that one wonders if there are any left at all.

But Europe has placed a losing bet on an endless Groundhog Day. When it comes to Europe, Ukraine, and Russia, the Trump administration has been remarkably consistent. Trump wants the Ukraine war to end, because he sees it as an irritant preventing the normalization of relations between the United States and Russia – especially the trade deals planned between his entourage and Kremlin friends. The liberal world order is over; In its place comes survival of the fittest. Instead of the old great power competition, Trump is keen to continue imperial collusion with both Russia and China. The rest of the world, including Europe, is on the colonial list.

Strategically, this makes certain short-term logic. Ideologically, it is in line with support for far-right parties and governments in Europe and beyond. Not only do these forces share the nationalist and socially conservative views championed by the Global Alliance for Central America, but they also work to divide Europe and hollow out the European integration project, with center-right forces playing useful idiots by cooperating with them. There is nothing less patriotic than Europe’s so-called patriots and sovereigntists, who seek to destroy European unity while colluding with Russia. The vision laid out in the new US National Security Strategy is scant in terms of concrete policies regarding Europe, but the message the document carries is The matter is clear: the only conceivable bond between the two sides of the Atlantic is that between the extreme right-wing forces, where the superior Americans dominate their European followers. that it that exactly In parallel with The vision and strategy that Putin’s Russia has followed towards Europe for years.

If Trump has not yet subjugated Europe to his desires, it is not because of clever European shenanigans. Trump’s temptation by Contact “Daddy,” showering him with gifts, and invitation His presence at the royal dinner will not save Ukraine nor transatlantic relations. Nor will frenzied European diplomacy, mass trips to Washington, or alternative peace plans do the trick. If Trump has yet to achieve his vision for the Ukraine war and a new balance of power in Europe, it is simply because Putin is still playing hard to get. But relying on Putin, who is always working to undermine the agreement between the United States and Russia, cannot constitute a security strategy for Europe.

What should Europeans do instead?

The good news is that there is a critical mass of European publics and governments that understand that European security passes through Kiev. This includes Germany, France, Britain, Poland, the Nordic countries, the Baltic countries, the Netherlands, Spain and, broadly, Italy – if only because Italians hate being left out. They realize that Russia’s war of imperial conquest begins with Ukraine but does not end there, and that surrendering Kiev would only free up Russian resources to open new fronts against Europe. Unfortunately, Ukraine represents the gateway that prevents the hybrid war already raging in Europe from turning into a more dangerous military attack.

The second good news is that Europe has influence – perhaps more than the United States – when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Since Trump took office, US support for Ukraine has ceased. Europe is the one that holds most of Russia’s frozen assets, imposes the truly painful sanctions, supports Ukraine economically, and provides it with the bulk of military aid. This is partly due to European investments in Ukraine, where a growing share of the country’s defense now relies on its domestic industry.

This is not intended to paint an unjustifiably rosy picture. The United States remains critical to Ukraine and Europe, particularly with regard to the intelligence it provides that enables Ukraine to intercept Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, as well as identify targets for deep strikes into Russia. Beyond that, the United States Profits By selling weapons that Europeans buy to Ukraine, which Europe does not produce on a large scale or at all.

This points to a broader dilemma affecting Ukrainian and European security. Europe is working to reduce its vulnerabilities by increasing defense spending, but this often entails purchasing more American weapons. It is working to reduce its short-term vulnerabilities at the expense of increasing its long-term dependence on the United States, which is now using the dependence of its nominal allies as a weapon. The Europeans are far from solving this dilemma.

Although a comprehensive solution to the security dilemma facing Europe is not on the horizon, the Europeans have the tools necessary to prevent Ukraine’s surrender and create the conditions for a just peace. What is missing – and what needs to be addressed – are two elements.

The first is Europe’s ability to focus on its strategic goal. European leaders and institutions have an abstract understanding of long-term strategy, but in practice they are often preoccupied with short-term vested interests. This is more clearly evident than in the case of Belgium and the European Central Bank Short-sighted attitudes Regarding the use of frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. Although this undoubtedly involves financial and legal risks, they pale in comparison to the political, economic and security costs that Europe would incur if Ukraine fell.

The second element is courage. European leaders must muster the courage to go to Washington, politely thank Trump for his “peace” efforts, and convince him that the world is full of other conflicts that need his attention. The Europeans can say: when it comes to Ukraine, we can deal with war. All we ask is to keep the intelligence flowing and continue to greenlight weapons purchases while we buy time to build our own.

Europe cannot promise to end the war today, but it can commit to building the conditions necessary for sustainable security on the continent. If flattery is necessary, Europe could even reassure Trump that when the day of peace comes, it will gladly dedicate a memorial, A square, Or a A shiny gold award for him.