Too early to assess impact of reciprocal tariffs, Indian exports remain resilient

India and the United States continue to negotiate the Bilateral Trade Agreement, as New Delhi officials indicated that it is still too early to assess the impact of the proposed mutual definitions that US president Donald Trump said will enter into force as of August 1.

“Regardless of the customs tariff on China, there are only advertisements for the intention of the United States to impose a mutual tariff on countries. It has not come into effect, and the relative position of Indian exports has not changed yet,” adding that the impact of these effects will have been evaluated since then.

As of now, there is a 10 % basic tariff by the United States in almost all countries, while the customs tariff for Chinese goods is about 55 %. The United States has also imposed a special tariff for the sector on elements, including car components, steel and aluminum.

“Modern American trade statements indicate that reducing import in these sectors largely and largely for goods from China. In general, customs tariff groups have increased by the United States, but imports have not decreased at the present time.”

But with concerns about the potential impact of American definitions on Indian exports, the Ministry of Commerce plans to start a global commercial watch from next month, which will monitor what is happening around the world and how India should strategy regarding its imports.

The sources pointed out that “India is still working well in exports, so government policies have an impact, which helped build flexibility in exports and led to the guarantee of export markets.”

According to temporary data, goods exports in India remained almost flat at 35.14 billion dollars in June 2025 from 35.16 billion dollars in June 2024, while imports fell to $ 53.92 billion in June 2025 from 56 billion dollars in June last year.

However, cumulative exports (goods and services) during April to June 2025 grew by 5.94 % to an estimated 210.31 billion dollars, compared to $ 198.52 billion in April to June 2024.

The officials also explained that, although the US announcements of an additional 10 % tariff imposed on the BRICS countries and separate definitions on those countries dealing with Russia, negotiations related to the commercial deal and the United States of America continue according to the reference conditions that were previously identified.

They said: “The negotiations are under progress according to the leadership of the leaders, and the reference conditions decided,” adding that BTA is negotiated according to the schedule that was determined in February from the first tranche.

However, expectations continue to sign a limited deal before the end of the month. A team of officials from India is currently in the United States and another round of negotiations to cancel the deal that is scheduled to start from Wednesday.

The chief negotiator in India and a private secretary at the Ministry of Commerce, Rajish Agrouwal, will join the team on Wednesday. The four -day conversations begin on Monday and will end on Thursday.

Other commercial deals

Meanwhile, India is also advancing in commercial deals with other countries. While the second round of the negotiations of the Free Trade Convention in India is currently underway in New Delhi, the twelfth round of talks on the European Indian Union concluded last week in Brussels. The next round of discussions is scheduled for the first week of September, when a delegation from the European Union is visiting India.

“We have exchanged offers on services and non -services … there were discussions about this. We also discussed the main interests in reaching the markets related to commodities as well … the next round of talks will be held in the first week of September,” said L Satya Srinivas, the private secretary of the Ministry of Commerce.

India is also working to review the free trade agreement with the ASEAN countries, where nine rounds of talks have already been seen. The tenth round of the talks is to be held in August in New Delhi. Although there are some progress in areas such as customs, trade facilitation, and technical cooperation, more discussions are needed.