Top investment treaty lawyer on Trump’s tariffs as the dust settles: ‘In many respects, everybody’s a loser here’

The closest to the winners may be the countries that took Trump’s demands – and avoid more pain. But it is unclear whether anyone will be able to demand a long -term victory – even the United States, the intended beneficiary of Trump’s protectionist policies.

“In many respects, everyone is losing here,” said Barry Appleon, co -director of the International law Center at the Faculty of Law in New York.

Six months after his return to the White House, Trump demolished the old global economic system. He went one based on agreed rules. In its place it is a system in which Trump defines itself the rules, using the enormous economic power in America to punish countries that will not agree on commercial deals unilaterally and extract huge concessions from those that do.

“The biggest winner is Trump,” said Alan Wolf, a former US -commercial official and Vice -Director General of the World Trade Organization. “He is betting that he can transfer other countries to the table on the basis of threats, and he has succeeded – greatly.”

Everything returns to what Trump calls “Tahrir Day” – April 2 – when the president declared “mutual” taxes of up to 50 % on imports from countries in the United States running a commercial deficit and 10 % of “basic” taxes on almost everyone.

The 1977 law was called for the declaration of commercial deficit in a state of national emergency that justifies overwhelming import taxes. This was allowed to bypass congress, which was traditional authority over taxes, including definitions – which are now challenged in court.

The winners will continue to pay a higher tariff before Trump took office

Trump Trump temporarily after the announcement of the liberation day, which led to a leakage in the financial markets and suspended the 90 -day definitions to give countries an opportunity to negotiate.

Ultimately, some of them did, as he was moving to Trump’s demands to pay what it seemed four months ago had looked a highly unimaginable tariff for the privilege of continuing to sell in the vast American market.

The UK agreed to a 10 % tariff for its exports to the United States – an increase of 1.3 % before Trump raised his trade war with the world. The United States demanded concessions although it was running a trade surplus, not a deficit, with the United Kingdom for 19 consecutive years.

The European Union and Japan accepted the US definitions by 15 %. These are much higher than the low rates of one number they paid last year-but less than the definitions it threatened (30 % on the European Union and 25 % in Japan).

Also, cutting deals with Trump and agreeing on the huge definitions were Pakistan, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.

Even countries that witnessed the decrease in definitions in April without reaching a deal that still pays a much higher tariff before Trump took office. Angola tariff, for example, fell to 15 % of 32 % in April, but in 2022 it was less than 1.5 %. Although the Trump administration reduced the Taiwan tariff to 20 % from 32 % in April, the pain will remain perceived.

“20 % of the beginning was not our goal, we hope that we will get more negotiations in interest, more beneficial and more rational,” Taiwan President Lay Cheng Tim told reporters in Taipei on Friday.

Trump also agreed to reduce the customs tariff in the Kingdom of Lesoto in South Africa to 15 % of 50 % announced in April, but the damage has already occurred there.

Promise Brazil, Clobbering Canada, Swiss jumped

The countries that did not agree with – and those that found other ways to bear Trump’s anger – have become more difficult.

Even some of the poorest countries spared. LaOS’s annual economic product is $ 2100 per person and $ 5,600 per Algeria – for $ 75,000. However, Laos shook with a 40 % tariff and Algeria with 30 % tax.

Trump criticized Brazil with 50 % import taxes because he did not like the way former Brazilian President Gere Bolsonaro, who is facing a trial for his attempt to lose his election defeat in 2022.

Trump’s decision was designed to associate a 35 % tariff on the US ally for a long time in Canada to threaten Ottawa because it would learn about a Palestinian state. Trump is a strong supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Switzerland was intertwined with the need to import 39 % – up to 31 % of Trump, originally announced on April 2.

“The Swiss people may want to have been overwhelmed in Washington” to conclude a deal. “” It is clear that they are not happy at all. ”

Wealth may change if Trump’s tariff is raised in court. Five American companies and 12 states sue the president, on the pretext that the Tahrir Day tariff exceeded its authority under the 1977 law.

In May, the American International Trade Court, a New York court, approved definitions and prohibited definitions, although the government was allowed to continue its collection during its appeal through the legal system, and may end up in the US Supreme Court. In a hearing on Thursday, the judges of the US Court of Appeal of the Federal Department seemed skeptical about Trump’s justifications for the definitions.

Appleon said: “If the tariff is exposed, then the Brazil winner may not be the loser.”

Pay more for Knapsacks and video games

Trump depicts his definition as a tax on foreign countries. But it is actually paid by import companies in the United States, which is trying to transfer the cost of its customers through higher prices. It is true that the customs tariff can harm other countries by forcing exporters to reduce prices and sacrifice profits – or risk losing their market share in the United States.

But the economists of Goldman Sachs estimate that exporters abroad have absorbed the increasing costs of the definitions, while Americans and American companies have picked up most of the tab.

Walmart, Procter & Gamble, Ford, Best Buy, Adidas, Nike, Mattel and Stanley Black & Decker, raised all prices due to American tariffs

“This is a consumption tax,” Appleon said. “Sports shoes, sneakers, your devices will rise. The TV and electronics will rise.

The Tramp war has prompted the average American tariff from 2.5 % at the beginning of 2025 to 18.3 % now, which is the highest level since 1934, according to the budget laboratory at Yale University. This will impose a cost of $ 2,400 on the medium family, and the laboratory estimate.

“The American consumer is the great loser,” said Wolf.

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Christopher Roger, AP Economics, contributed to this story.