China beat growth expectations in Q1, but US tariffs cloud outlook

China won the forecast of economic growth in the first quarter, but the look at the remainder of 2025 is still bleak like Beijing bows for the influence of huge American definitions.

The latest data indicates that the total Chinese local products (GDP) grew by 5.4 % in the quarter of January to the previous year, overcoming the expectations of analysts in a Reuters poll, an increase of 5.1 %.

Meanwhile, retail sales, which is a major consumption measure, to less than 6 % year on an annual basis in March after obtaining 4 % in January-Fiber, while the growth of the factory product accelerated to 7.7 % of 5.9 % in the first two months. Both numbers top analysts.

However, these figures preceded President Donald Trump, colliding with definitions on Chinese goods to the levels of eye water, which prompted Beijing to slap the duties of revenge on the United States’ imports in an intense trade war between the largest economies in the world that fear of markets will do to global recession.

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Analysts also say that the increase in March’s exports in China – driven by the accelerated shipping factories to overcome the latest Trump tariff – will sharply reflect in the coming months with the ease of effect in the United States.

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While many other countries have swept the American definitions, Trump has targeted China for the largest drawings.

Last week, Trump raised China’s duties to 145 %, which prompted Beijing to raise the fees on American goods to 125 % and rejected US trade measures as a “joke”.

The Secretary -General of the Communist Party in Vietnam in Lam (PBUH) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (L) will leave after their meeting at the Central Committee of the Party Central Committee in Hanoi on April 14, 2025. (NHAC Nguyen/Pool/AFP via Getty Images/Getty Images)

On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 1.2 % in the first quarter, slowed from 1.6 % in October to December.

Over the course of 2025, the Chinese economy is expected to grow at a rate of 4.5 % on an annual basis, the Reuters poll showed that it slowed from 5.0 pace last year and reduced the official goal, which is about 5.0 %.

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Political makers have repeatedly said that the country has a large space and tools to enhance the economy, and this month Prime Minister Lee Qiang pledged to offer more support measures.

President Donald Trump works to the left, and is working on a flexible production line for the circles in China, China. (Bonnie Cash/Upi/Bloomberg, Left, Cosfoto/Nurphoto via Getty Images, right/Getty Images)

Beijing has placed augmented consumption as a top priority this year as it tries to expand the effect of the Trump administration tariff on the trade sector.

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The Political Bureau, a better body to make decisions in the ruling Communist Party, will hold a meeting later this month to determine the agenda of the policy for the coming months.

Reuters contributed to this report.