The tide is turning in the housing market as top metro areas see home prices fall ahead of a broader decline later this year

• Home sale prices In 11 of the 50 largest US metro regions, it has already decreased, according to RedFin data, which sees the average price of the country in the country, decreased by 1 % on an annual basis in the fourth quarter of this year. This is with the growth of lists and real estate mortgage rates remain high, while the number of sellers exceeds the number of buyers in record amounts.

The main turning point appears in the housing market, as the momentum turns more firmly for buyers on the sellers.

This can help revive the relatively home shopping season, which has seen a sharp decrease in suspended sales, which means signing fewer purchase contracts.

“But the tide began to turn into the buyers of the houses,” Redvin said on Thursday’s update.

While the average home selling price in the United States increased by 1.9 % on an annual basis in the four weeks that ended on May 25, prices on 11 of more than 50 US metro areas are the most crackdown, according to RedFin data. Oakland is led by California (-4.9 %); Dallas (-4.5 %); Jacksonville, Florida (-3 %); Austin, Texas (-2.5 %); Sayattle (-1.4 %).

This comes before what is expected to be a wider direction later this year. RDFIN sees the average selling price in the United States in the third quarter on an annual basis, then decreased by 1 % on an annual basis by the fourth quarter – even with mortgage rates that hover about 7 %.

It would represent a sharp reflection earlier this year and modern date. In the first quarter, prices rose by 3 %, and the second quarter prices are expected to increase by 2 %. Meanwhile, prices have risen since 2012, with the exception of a sparkle in 2023, in the middle of the long seller market.

The reason for a simple U transformation: there is a more way now. Last month, there were about 500,000 people selling homes more than people trying to buy, representing the largest of this gap since Redfin began collecting data in 2013.

And when these sellers in homes listen to their real estate, they stay on the market for a longer period, forcing some to reduce their demand prices.

“The sellers realize that we are in a new market, making them flexible,” said Venus Martinez, Redvin’s agent in Los Angeles. “Many sellers, especially those who may bought at the top of the market and need to sell, are ready to accept money less than their homes, give concessions to buyers, and even negotiate commissions. It is likely that buyers are able to negotiate if the house is present in the market for more than a few weeks, or if it has fallen from the contract.”

Although the mortgage rates will most likely remain, Redfin notes that wages will continue to rise, which means that the ability to withstand the costs of the house should improve in the second half of the year.

Redfin expectations are one similar RDFIN from Zillow in April, when you expected home values ​​to decrease by 1.9 % this year after expecting an increase of 0.6 %.

Zillow researchers wrote: “The mixed rise and high mortgage rates indicate a possible decrease in prices by the end of the year,” Zillow researchers wrote. “With the increase in supply, buyers acquire more options and time to make a decision, while sellers reduce prices at record levels to attract bids.”

Of course, if buyers start dumping the market, the pricing scene will change with it. On the other hand, the prolonged stagnation in the activity is usually bad news for the public economy.

Citi Research analysts warned in a memorandum from last week that residential investment, a pioneering stagnation indicator, is scheduled to contract this quarter after it grows weak in the first quarter with mortgage rates.

City said: “The constant housing investment is the most sensitive sector for the interest in the economy and now indicates that the mortgage rates are about 7 % very high so that the expansion cannot be maintained.”

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

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2025-06-01 20:13:00