Trump promises to send $2,000 tariff dividend checks ‘probably the middle of next year, a little bit later than that’

“We’ll release earnings later, somewhere before…maybe the middle of next year, or a little bit later,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office, according to Axios. He said the payments would go to “low-income and middle-income individuals.”

The commitment represents an escalation of Trump’s previous, more ambiguous assertions that the tariffs generate enough money to fund direct payments to American households. But turning the idea into actual controls is much more complicated than his easy rhetoric suggests.

Treasury Secretary Scott Besent made that clear over the weekend, saying on Fox News that the administration “needs legislation” to distribute any such dividends.

“We’ll see,” he added. Picent also noted that the structure could take forms other than checks — for example, a tax deduction — suggesting uncertainty within the administration about what Trump’s proposal would be.

Math is another hurdle. A $2,000-per-person dividend, even if limited to low- or middle-income Americans, would cost far more than the $200 billion brought in by Trump’s tariffs. If the checks resemble the structure of the coronavirus-era stimulus — which went to adults and children alike — the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates the price tag could be as high as $600 billion. This means that Trump’s tariffs would be a negative $400 billion for the United States in 2026, based on current projections.

The future of those revenues is itself uncertain. The Supreme Court is expected to rule within months on whether Trump exceeded his authority when he imposed sweeping tariffs by invoking national emergency powers. So far, both conservative and liberal Supreme Court justices have seemed skeptical of his arguments. If the court rules against him, the administration may somehow have to return billions in collected duties to importers, which would be the opposite of the “return” promised by Trump. Trump says the risks are existential, claiming the loss could cost the US $3 trillion in refunds and lost investments.

The White House did not immediately respond Luck Request for comment.

Yet Trump continues to present tariffs as a multi-purpose economic engine: a way to protect American factories, pressure foreign governments, boost the federal budget, and now finance what he has described as populist windfalls. Trump and the GOP have focused broadly on winning back voters on the basis of “affordability” since Democrats swept the election earlier this month. The president even said on Friday that he would eliminate tariffs on beef, coffee, tropical fruits and commodities, even as he continued to insist that tariffs do not raise prices.

“Affordability is a lie when Democrats use it. It’s a complete CON JOB,” he wrote Friday on Truth Social.