Trump’s $2,000 tariff dividends could cost $600 billion annually says CRFB

president Donald Trump A proposal to give Americans a $2,000 tariff dividend could carry a hefty price tag, according to a new analysis by the budget watchdog.

Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday that the federal government is looking to pay the dividend by mid-2026, which would come before the midterm elections. The timing may depend on congress, with Treasury Secretary Scott Besent recently saying legislation is needed to approve the dividend.

“We’ll release earnings later, somewhere before, you know, maybe the middle of next year, or a little bit later,” Trump said. “Thousands of dollars for middle- and middle-income individuals.”

The president announced the proposal in a post last week on his Truth Social platform, saying: “We are receiving trillions of dollars and will soon begin paying off our massive debt, $37 trillion. Record investment in the US, factories and mills are rising everywhere. Dividends of at least $2,000 per person (not including high-income people!) will be paid to everyone.”

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) estimated that if Trump Tariff profits If structured like COVID-19-era stimulus payments that went to adults and children after accounting for income levels, each round of tariff payments would cost about $600 billion on an annual basis.

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The CRFB noted that the Trump administration’s tariffs have raised about $100 billion so far this year, including tariffs that federal courts have ruled illegal and are awaiting appeal in federal court. supreme court.

On an annual basis, the Trump administration’s tariffs — including those that may be struck down by the Supreme Court — are expected to raise about $300 billion annually. By contrast, net revenue from new tariffs not subject to the Supreme Court’s ruling would raise just under $100 billion annually.

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Tariffs are taxes on imported goods paid by importers, who typically pass on some of these higher costs to consumers through higher prices. (Qian Weizhong/VCG via Getty Images/Getty Images)

It is unclear whether the president intends to pay the tariff dividends annually or at less frequent intervals, or the amount of the dividend since he stipulated “at least $2,000 per person” in his social media post.

The CRFB said that if a $2,000 dividend was paid annually, it would be done Increasing deficit $6 trillion over 10 years, adding that the cost is “nearly twice what President Trump is estimated to raise over the same time period.”

If the administration were to pay tariff dividends on a revenue-neutral basis, and if current tariffs remained in place, then Profits of $2000 It could be repaid every two years starting in 2027, according to the analysis.

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However, if the Supreme Court upholds the lower court rulings and rules that many of the Trump administration’s tariffs are illegal, the remaining tariff income would be enough to pay a $2,000 dividend after seven years.

“Using income from tariffs to pay dividends means that the income cannot be used to reduce the deficit or offset borrowing from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” CRFB wrote.

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The analysis also found that tariff revenues are used for rebates or dividends, rather than paying them National debtThat would push debt as a share of GDP to 127% by 2035, higher than the 120% expected under current law. If dividends of $2,000 were paid annually, that would push the debt to 134% of GDP.