Trump’s 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal Withdrawal Looms Over Recent Strikes

As dust continued to settle after the American air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which were supposed to destroy Tehran’s ability to build nuclear weapons but did not completely succeed, one question waving on the horizon: What did the United States gain from walking away from the nuclear deal with Iran seven years ago?

The Trump administration insists that the strikes, including 14 bombed “Bunker-Puster” bombs that were dropped on three main coordination operations, completely destroyed the Iranian nuclear program. However, a preliminary evaluation by the American Intelligence Society concluded that the attacks had not always caused damage to Iranian facilities and restored the nuclear program for only a few months. US Defense Secretary of Higseth repeated the “flawless” nature of the unprecedented operation and confirmed that the attacks that made the main nuclear facility underground in Iran in Fordo. The director of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, like some Israeli sources, stressed that the new assessments of the attack indicate that the Iranian nuclear program has been appointed over the years.

As dust continued to settle after the American air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which were supposed to destroy Tehran’s ability to build nuclear weapons but did not completely succeed, one question waving on the horizon: What did the United States gain from walking away from the nuclear deal with Iran seven years ago?

The Trump administration insists that the strikes, including 14 bombed “Bunker-Puster” bombs that were dropped on three main coordination operations, completely destroyed the Iranian nuclear program. After a Initial evaluation The American Intelligence Society concluded that the attacks only caused few damages to Iranian facilities and returned the nuclear program to only a few months. US Defense Minister Beit Higseth repeat the “Without defects“The nature of the unprecedented operation and emphasized that the attacks made the main underground nuclear facility in Iran in Ford. Israeli sourcesHe also stressed that the new assessments of the attack indicate that the Iranian nuclear program was Go out Years.

But the Trump administration has approved it Unaware Where Iran’s great stocks, which includes nearly half a half metric, of highly enriched uranium – indicates that, the satellite reports and photos indicate that Iran has conveyed the cache before the air strikes at the end of last week. This uranium pile is enriched to 60 percent of purity, which in terms of enrichment is very close to the purity of 90 percent referred to as weapons. The administration, like the rest of the international community, is also in the dark about the number of advanced centrifugal devices that Iran possesses, its place, or its additional number that Tehran can build. In other words, it seems that all brown blocks, because the Iranian bomb remains in place, but now Iran has a more than ever to scramble to these pieces together.

In a row, seven years after the Trump administration withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal, the net result was a sharp and sustainable increase in Iranian nuclear enrichment over several years, followed by a few weeks of religious diplomacy that culminated by historical air outputs that may have left the Iranian nuclear program but still operating.

“We have to judge the place where we were in 2018 and where are we today. I think today is much more dangerous and that Iran is closer to obtaining a bomb,” said John Wolverfal, director of global risks in the Union of American Scholars who worked on the spread of Obama.

US strikes, It completed nearly two weeks of low -density Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and nerve centers in the regime, as a culmination of US President Donald Trump’s approach to Iran, which began in his first term. The reluctant line is a decision that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon or even its building blocks, such as any enriched uranium. This helped to push Trump’s decision to stay away from the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, known as the JCOA, which has set an agreed borders on Iranian nuclear aspirations in exchange for economic sanctions.

Many American Republicans and Iran Hoks at JCPOA have erred because they have argued that Tehran has offered a lot of economic relief, which only provides partial and limited registration of time to Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, and did not do anything to address efforts to destabilize Iranian regional stability or its comprehensive developments in ballistic missiles, which have become a serious security threat.

But the nuclear deal, for all its defects, put a hat on Uranium enrichment efforts in IranReducing the very low levels used in civil nuclear reactors. The deal also limited Iran’s ability to install the most advanced centrifugal devices that can enrich more uranium quickly. Perhaps more importantly, I created a strong deal The monitoring and verification system The international atomic inspectors granted unprecedented access to Iranian nuclear facilities. The deal, which Iran at the time of Trump’s withdrawal in 2018 promised to put the Iranian nuclear program in a well -observed cage for a period of no less than a decade.

“Now, we are discussing whether Ford has been appointed for a few weeks or a few months. In the reign of JCPOA, Ford was neutralized for 15 years. So it is a simple mathematics problem. The diplomatic solution was always and very congressless,” said Ali Fayez, director of the Iranian project in the international crises group that participated in the JCPOA negotiations.

Evaluation of eaves The effectiveness of strikes continues. The International Atomic Energy Agency said on Thursday that heavy American bumps appear to be out The advanced central expulsion in Fordo, even as the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khounai, Described The nuclear impact on the United States affects it as little in its first statements since the weekend attacks. But what seems clear is that Iran’s stock, which is more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium It is still not perceived forThis is enough fissile materials to collect nine bombs.

“If we are not actually a very enriched uranium deficit, the threat remains there,” said Richard, another former national security official in Obama now at the Global Energy Policy Center.

While uranium by 60 percent will be enough for a raw bomb, Iran will need to enrich it to 90 percent of purity to develop a more sophisticated weapon. It will be the fastest way to do this with advanced centrifugal devices, especially the so-called IR-6, the most advanced centrifugal that Iran has done in the operating waterfalls. Since 2021, the international inspectors have not had any vision of Iran’s production of the new central expulsion, and they did not know the number of Iran or its other number that could build and install it in order to accelerate the final enrichment it needs for the enemy for the bomb. The centrifugal manufacturing requires some special materials, such as carbon fibers and very specialized steel, but this is already possible in the warehouse somewhere underground.

“It is very likely that they will store the sects for the central expulsion, and they have already said they had a new underground facility,” said Wolfstal. “It is quite possible to enrich uranium and we don’t know that.”

Our mix of strikes and what appears to be at least partial survival of the Iranian nuclear program and its components means that Iran may be closer to a bomb ever before or during the years of JCPOA, when the so -called bomb time was evaluated around a year. American intelligence community conclude Recently, Iran was not actively seeking to implement nuclear materials, but these accounts may be outside the window now after it has a cloud. Call The ghost of “Iran’s surrender”. Now the penetration is Breakneck.

“If Iran still has more than 400 kilograms and a group of IR-6 centrifuges, the infiltration option is more available than ever.”

If we look back, The United States (and Israel) is likely to be in a better position to contain Iranian nuclear aspirations by maintaining the negotiated borders of its ability to enrich uranium. But since 2018, especially in the past few years, Iran has benefited from lack of restraint to make progress in this Unforgettable Even through a new diplomatic deal. There is no way to put progress in nuclear knowledge, or accumulate many advanced centrifugal devices, again in the bottle.

My nephew said: “You cannot give a good argument that we are in a better position without jCpoa.”

On Wednesday, Trump said that the United States and Iran will resume their indirect talks aimed at resolving the nuclear impasse next week. Five rounds have already stumbled on familiar red lines, including Iran’s insistence that they have the right to local enrichment, and the sixth was canceled after the Israeli bombing. Vaez referred to other talks, which is an implicit recognition of the United States that the task was not completely done.

He said: “If the United States is sure they have blurred the nuclear program, there will be nothing to negotiate. But because of this distinguished question, they are keen to return to the table.”

It hopes that both sides can soften them Red linesWith Iran, it may stop enriching it while the United States is gathering in an international alliance to enrich the regional uranium that allows all parties to save the face and avoid the final confrontation.

“Lack of confidence is deeper than it was ever, but it must always be measured against alternatives,” Fayez said. “Iran is very exposed – it is in a terrible economic strait, and their weather defenses and their clients have been removed on their knees. So even if they do not trust the Trump administration, there is no better option for them now.”