Trump’s Aug. 1 Tariffs Upend Global Trade

As promised, US President Donald Trump delivered the definitive definitions on August 1, with penal import taxes on almost all good countries around the world. In all, Trump announced new and arbitrary tariff rates on 92 countries, ranging from 15 percent (for many countries) to nearly 40 percent or more (for Laos, Myanmar, Switzerland, and Syria).

Although the new customs tariffs are lower than the high rates announced by Trump in April, which managed to rotate the rare triffita of the failure of stocks, bonds and currency, his recent movements still shake global markets. Dow Jones and S&P 500 in the United States opened less sharply, suffered European stocks, and almost every Asian index was red.

As promised, US President Donald Trump delivered the definitive definitions on August 1, with penal import taxes on almost all good countries around the world. In all, Trump Declare New and arbitrary tariff rates on 92 countries, ranging from 15 percent (for many countries) to nearly 40 percent or more (for Laos, Myanmar, Switzerland, and Syria).

Although the new customs tariffs are lower than the high rates announced by Trump in April, which managed to rotate the rare triffita of the failure of stocks, bonds and currency, his recent movements still shake global markets. US Dow Jones and S& P 500 Both of them opened Sharp decrease, European The stocks suffered, and almost all Asian index It was red.

It is another tremor of uncertainty for the global economy after a three -month delay, but there may be more uncertainty in coming: The legal institution of Trump’s definitions has not already been considered illegal by a court, and it remains a legal challenge in another, and it may end up to the Supreme Court, and this means anything this week Sturm und D way It may stick to the end. Trump’s love for definitions, though, will.

“Trump has been on a tariff mission since the 1980s,” said Josh Lipsky, the first director of the Geological Economy Center in the Atlantic Council. “His campaign was 10 percent on the world and 60 percent on China, and now we look at what we are.”

The case, in April and in the latest Salvo, is the continued misconception of Trump for both the problem and the solution. He says he is concerned about the trade deficit in the United States, although economists have made decades to explain Why do they not care in the end? This constant deficit was used to summon emergency powers that were not used before using them to lose sight of the congress Authority to trade and raise taxes on imports.

The reality, based on the torrent of the new definitions that have been announced since January, including the latest cases, which are scheduled to become valid on August 7, amounting to about $ 600 billion for annual tax on consumers and American companies. American import duties have already been at its highest levels since the great depression even before the last announcement.

All this explains the bad news of growth, inflation and unemployment. New July Job numbers It was very scary, with only 73,000 new jobs, while job reports were in May and June Reference To the bottom, all of this is largely due to the uncertainty about the Trump tariff, which cools both consumer spending and business investment. Budget Laboratory at Yale University, even before avoiding the full impact of the definitions of August 1, Anticipate To some extent to an invoice of about $ 2,400 per family in the United States, with a reduction of 0.5 percent of GDP growth this year and half a million jobs evaporate.

It is a new fact for a country, and a planet, the post -World War II prosperity has been included through decades -long -breaking effort to dismantle the barriers to trade.

“My full view is that within seven months, Trump resett the global trading system and made the United States more protection, and we are not back,” said Lipsky.

The administration was supposed to aim for a period of three months after receiving the catastrophic to the April tariff to give the administration time to negotiate a large number of commercial deals. In the end, the administration obtained agreements with many countries and blocs, including the main commercial partners such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom.

However, no one of these deals does not provide clarity regarding what each side has already agreed, and there are no guarantees that American commercial policy will not change in a whim within days or weeks. Canada, which has been for decades with a free trade agreement with the United States, was surprised and “”Disappointed“To find itself subject to 35 percent of the customs tariff under the August 1 plan, outwardly due to 43 pounds of fentanel It was seized on the American -Canadian border last year, which represents only 0.2 percent of the total size of the drug to the United States.

Or the agreement reached at the end of last week between Washington and Brussels, which left the European Union faced 15 percent of the American definitions instead of 30 percent threatened. Under the son, The hills are still The framework deal, the European Union will increase the purchase of energy exports in the United States to $ 250 billion annually during Trump’s presidency, a goal that one of the expert commentators described locally as “”Fake.“Last year, the European Union imported a total of $ 64 billion of coal, oil and natural gas. Trade experts are already identical to the Trump deal” the first stage “with China, which has never approached the perception and did nothing to address the basic commercial issues that suffer from the bilateral relationship.

“We have found it difficult to reconcile 750 billion dollars over three years of the purchase of ambition either with the American offer or the demand for the European Union,” wrote Clarefio Enerers Partners, a Washington -based consultant, in a recent research note.

Or took the commercial deal that the administration was exposed to Japan, under which the United States He thinks Japan will invest $ 550 billion, with nearly all the profits of those investments that accumulate on the United States, against a tariff rate of 15 percent. Japanese officials note That these loans be, not investments, and have no idea what must be achieved for the provisions of profit. South Korea in the same boat. Taiwan, who has not made the same types of investment pledge SemiconductorAnd that was until recently the things that Washington wanted to get more and more license.

For the rest of the world, the two countries do not have mysterious and one -side commercial deals, only random numbers. Switzerland, which was marked by 39 percent of the customs tariff on Friday, He is anxiety On the loss of manufacturing functions in an export economy, it depends somewhat depends on the United States. Bern still reserves the hope that his main export, medications, will only be subject to the future definitions of 25 percent, but no one knows for sure what will happen there.

India anxiety Not only about separation Among the commercial conversations this summer, the tariff that followed 25 percent, but also Trump’s threats to publish the so -called Secondary definitions To punish countries (like India) that still buys Russian oil.

The paradox, of course, is that Trump’s induction collapse may be illegal.

The definitions-specifically its use of the Carter Covenant’s law to declare the state of national emergency due to imports-was already An illegal consideration By a commercial court in May, the Court of Appeal is currently declining It seems Skeptical One of the Trump administration’s allegations that it can invent new powers to address the non -existing emergencies.

The federal circle listened to oral arguments on this issue on Thursday, and the ruling, which could come this month, It seems bad For Trump. But this would kick the legal battle to the Supreme Court, which may not have respect for the constitutional delegation of the Trade Authority, or to the constitution, which was shown by the lower courts. Even if customs duties are finally thrown, the administration has a list of other authorities, including some dating to the thirties of the twentieth century, which can call for free trade.

Either way, Trump is intended to use the customs tariff to raise revenues and reshape the American economy. In his first term, and before that, the markets finally forced him to correct the path – to turn off. These days may be overcome. Congress has just approved legislation that would bake in the ongoing financial deficit, which requires the United States to rely on the income of customs tariffs in the future, regardless of who is the president, to cover part of the gap. Trump’s tariff, in other words, may excel it.

“I think these definitions will wander. It goes beyond Trump at this stage,” said Lipsky.