Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will accelerate an American energy crisis—and it could cost the U.S. the AI race

This failed to race against China for the sovereignty of artificial intelligence; Failure to provide an affordable power to its citizens; And failure to make energy clean as possible while climate change problems escalate with each year that passes.

Since President Donald Trump has described the American energy hegemony, it has bent over executive orders to accelerate the natural gas, gas and new nuclear plants. But organizational bottlenecks and supply chain still put these projects for several years.

Meanwhile, “One Beautiful One law” of Trump is more intentionally and fastest energy storage projects, and storing batteries that will help saturate the huge energy requirements for cloud services providers on a large scale known as excessive numbers. The final legislation approved by congress on July 3 (the Council approved 218-214 votes) to quickly relax on the tax credits of clean energy that could have helped strengthen an actually extended electric network.

The Republican Party tends to clean energy discounts to support fossil fuels, while directing the president’s anti-renewal feelings: it often criticized the intermittent nature of wind and solar energy-even if this is increasingly compensated by this non-battery growth of renewable energy. Of course, reducing tax credits helps compensate for federal spending elsewhere in the bill.

It is not surprising that the clean energy industry in the weapon is about BBB legislation. Abyel Ross Hopper, president and executive director of the solar energy industries Association, said it would increase electricity bills, close manufacturing facilities, cost several jobs in American construction, and weaken the network.

This legislation [will] She said that America’s global competitiveness, destabilizing the future of our energy, and weakening the same industries that increase our economy and enhance our national security-with the surrender of technology race in the twenty-first century to China.

On the other hand, with the flow of money from fossil fuel interests to support Trump and the Republicans last year, oil and gas pressure groups-which often overlook the credits of clean energy tax as unfair-the final bill.

Melissa Simpson, head of the Western Energy Alliance in the Oil and Gas Industry, praised “the huge bill that will unleash the energy we need.” It is specifically described “rulings that enhance oil and natural gas production on public lands” and stop “excessive tax on natural gas” related to emissions.

“Energy dominance” or “energy abundance”?

The final legislation quickly establishes tax credits for all clean energy projects that do not move online by the end of 2027 – with the execution of those that break the ground by June 2026. The original and less Diconia Senate language requires construction by the end of 2027 – a difference in the accurate but huge butted timeline for those who flounder in obtaining projects.

This is not just a problem for clean energy developers or environmental defenders; It can significantly slow down the rapid planned increases in the country in power generation. In simple phrases, this means less powerful for the sectors of technology and the thirsty manufacturing of electricity, and the growing population-which means energy bills higher for everyone, a potential shortage and generation.

“The draft law is not limited to families, but is undermining our country,” said Ary Matosiak, CEO of The Rewir America. “We need low -cost energy to compete in the world. We’ll become more poorer, less flexible and less prepared to drive in a rapidly changing world.” After all, renewable energy sources constituted nearly 90 % of the new power generation installed in the United States last year, according to the Ministry of Energy.

The cutting dates to 2027 will complete most of the projects to 20 % of the clean energy projects that are built in the United States over the next ten years, according to S& P Global Commodity Insights expectations.

“This is very useful,” said Roman Kamarrachuk, head of the Climate Market and Politics Analysis of S& P Global. “This is not 20 % of a small share; this is 20 % of the vast majority of new publishing operations.

“This is difficult,” added. “What you will do is to increase energy costs.”

Instead of the so-called energy dominance, there is an increased appeal of technology, facilities and political moderation for the restricted “abundance of energy”-a position that embraces all energy forms to build capabilities more quickly and helps to drop prices. But the ideology of the two parties has stumbled by the ideology, and has failed to support a strategy that includes clean energy and Natural gas – with the Republican Party that targets renewable energy sources and democrats who fight fossil fuels.

This is despite the urged of the Edison Institute (EEI), an organization that represents the investor -owned electrical facilities at the country level, and many others. “We are in unprecedented times for our manufacture; we have not seen this type of pregnancy growth since the appearance of air conditioning,” said EEI and CEO of Exelon Calvin Butler. luck. “We have to get a new energy generation. The portfolio of the wallet will take at all-baccalaureate, gas, wind, solar energy and new technologies such as battery storage.”

Bater said that he would have supported legislation if allowing clean energy projects to switch by 2027, despite their later preference. “We believe that tax credits are the key,” he said. “We don’t think we can reach energy dominance without the presence of renewable energy sources as part of the solution.”

Why do we need a lot of strength?

After energy demand in the United States has remained relatively stagnant for a few two decades, local electricity consumption is expected to extend 25 % from 2023 to 2035 and about 60 % from 2023 to 2050, according to the International Energy Agency.

A large part of this increase comes from excessive numbers: Invest amazon, Google and Microsoft anywhere from 75 billion dollars to $ 100 billion for each of the 2025 data centers alone.

To put these dollars in the context, the full market value of Big Oil Giant BP is $ 80 billion. For example, Louisiana’s high -size identification data center will require, for example, the weak energy used by the entire New Orleans.

John Ketchum, CEO of Nextera Energy (173 on The Fortune 500)-determines huge benefit and energy-that the expected Gas-Working Generation cannot meet up to 20 % of the data center needs from now until 2030.

“If the sources of renewable energy are not, what will be?” Kitches said about the remaining 80 % of the needs of the Data Center, while speaking at the Politico Energy summit in June.

Although the legislation does not paralyze clean energy-so there is a lot of winds and solar energy on the scale-it greatly weakens its access to tax exemptions and increased costs.

A prior version of the invoice not only advanced in tax credits; The new Al-Mukus tax was also placed on clean energy projects-even opponents of renewable energy. Some expectations were estimated that the tax could easily kill most of the outstanding clean energy projects, making it unrealistic. This tax was removed before the final vote of the Senate.

Another change at the last minute of clean energy-exempt projects from tax credit loss if they are skimped in June 2026, even if the deadline for the completion of 2027-even though it is still very narrow time schedules.

Likewise, the legislation maintains the “transfer” of tax credits – which was removed by the back “poison pills” aimed at paralyzing the program. Transfer of transportation to smaller developers allows the collection of capital by transferring tax credits with a deduction of the largest buyers who can immediately benefit from tax benefits. The original version of the bill of the bill had been canceled.

The legislation also puts new “foreign concerns” on renewable energy projects. The FEOC rules, which only apply to electric vehicle tax credits in the Law of Inflation, will be applied to all clean energy tax credits, which mainly limits the supply chain material required from China. Law of the Law of the Home Law put the provisions of FEC difficult in projects, but the final version requires a more measured and trained approach in stages.

Regardless of the amount of new manufacturing that was built in the United States, many materials still come from China and any delay or errors that give up more lands in the midst of a fight to dominate artificial intelligence as China builds more quickly than coal to wind and solar energy.

While China is currently dependent on coal from the United States, China is now sources of about a third of its power from renewable energy sources-which reach about 22 % in the United States-and China currently proves more solar energy, for example, more than the rest of the world combined. As China continues to build more generation, the slowdown in the United States in any forms of new electrical infrastructure will give China more strength in the artificial intelligence race to excellence.

Justin Sullivan – Pictures

The legislation also draws a set of clean energy efforts and other efficiency. The tax credit of electric cars is destroyed, as well as credits for solar energy projects and the efforts of other home energy efficiency. Megabill also comes at a time when the Trump administration aims to decrease energy efficiency standards for home appliances and more.

“Families will face high electricity costs with fewer tools to do anything about it,” said Matosiak from the re -delivery of America. “Since the energy demand from artificial intelligence, data centers, and manufacturing explosion, families are mobilized, and expect to pay more with less.”

The cost of residential electricity in the United States has already increased by 13 % on average of 2022 to date, according to the Ministry of Energy. They are expected to continue to increase demand growth from databases and high natural gas prices, as a wave of liquefied natural gas export projects comes from now to 2030.

What happens after that?

After that, there is a continuation of a racing racing to break the clean energy projects to overcome the deadline for tax credit. In some way, the more strict time schedules, the greater and the fastest is the crazy rush to qualify for tax exemptions – even if a fewer in general is built.

“This sector has done this before,” said Kamarrachuk. “There is always a rush to strike the deadlines.”

In payment to get more fossil energy that reaches fuel, the new gas -operating turbines that have not already been contracted for five years or so will take. Meanwhile, this means increasing the use of gas power plants and working to keep more coal factories open for a longer period. “This means operating the current gas or coal units more difficult,” said Kamarrachuk. Not by chance, the tax exemption for coal exports was a late addition to the legislation.

By 2028, 50 GB of the current coal capacity is scheduled to retire. Some of these plants should remain on the Internet for a longer period to fill the gap, but it can be possible to be clear. He said: “Many of these plants are very old and require large capital investments to keep them continuous.”

In order to be clear, the end of the tax credits does not mean the death of renewable energy sources. Super Pac Clearpath’s work, which supports the efforts to combat climate change, described the draft law as a much better draft than some previous versions that would have imposed additional taxes on renewable energy sources and “destroyed” the clean energy industry. “Republicans in the Senate and the House of Representatives’ allies rejected this approach and maintained some financial tools to accelerate the American innovation and invest in American manufacturing,” said Jeremy Harril, CEO of Claire.

However, this means that wind projects and solar energy will become more expensive. Many regional facilities and smaller developers may kill clean energy projects on their drawing panels. But excessive Passover, of course, have larger budgets.

“The new winds and solar energy that have been built, it will cost much more,” said Kamarrachuk. “If you are superior, you may have more length to pay more.”

As for the rest of us? Our electricity and heating bills may also rise.