Trump’s hand against Beijing is getting weaker as Chinese exports to the U.S. tank 34% YOY

• president Trump’s introductory strategy was based on belief China, which is highly dependent on the American market, will accommodate high export costs and forcing them to negotiate. However, modern data shows that Chinese exports to the United States have decreased sharply with China’s diversity to other markets, undermining Trump’s influence and uncertainty about the future of trade relations between the United States and China despite the temporary truce.

When President Trump announced the customs tariff system, he said that China will have to “absorb” the export rates and will have to the negotiating table to agree on new trading conditions.

After all, he expressed that China relies on the United States as the largest export market and will have to reshape its economy entirely if it does not agree on a deal.

Therefore, despite the desire to rebalance with economic partners, Trump’s strong hand relied somewhat on the idea that Chinese companies needed to continue selling to American companies and consumers.

But as negotiations that flow and develop, that basis has shifted. The data released on Monday reveals Chinese exports to the United States, which decreased by more than 34 % in May 2025 compared to annual (YY).

Exports to the United States also decreased slightly over 20 % in April, indicating a conscious shift away from the trusted American consumer towards other markets.

These new pockets include the capabilities of Chinese exporters Africa, as exports increased by more than 30 % in Yu and Canada, where exports increased by 20 % in May compared to the same month last year, for each of the international payments specialists.

George Vice, George Vice, said that diversification away from the United States for Chinese exporters can be explained as undermining Trump’s seat at the negotiating table in Beijing.

He says luck: “I think the data may be seen as undermining Trump’s position and its ability to harm China. However, given the refining impact, it is expected that this is on other countries, it raises the risk of the escalation of the trade war elsewhere with other countries that were forced to impose their own tariff on China.

“There was already increasing evidence that China has successfully diversified its commercial relations, and has become less dependent on the United States as a destination for its manufactured goods. The US share in the total Chinese exports decreased from about 23 % at the beginning of the century to 16 %.”

He also provided a warning to the data, saying: “It should be noted that Chinese exports to the United States are always located around the new Chinese year (in general in February) but usually stood strongly now. This year, the New Year’s recovery has not happened after China.

Restoring the armistice

The data may have come at an appropriate time for Chinese officials, who meet with Trump’s assistants to discuss a deal in London.

To summarize, currently, the trade war between Beijing and Washington, DC, has entered a bit of truce, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin announced a temporary stop for 90 days in May.

Both sides have agreed to reduce their rates by 115 %, which means that Begin is facing a 30 % tariff and the United States faces a 10 % tariff.

With UK officials met this week, analysts were hoping for some additional evidence about the form of a final deal.

Instead, they received a repetition of the already announced Indians and a working framework with a few details about future procedures.

President Trump said that the deal was “completed”, pending logging from President Xi. He added that the rare and magnetic land will be “in advance” in the agreement, which led some to speculate that the United States has agreed to obligations such as allowing Chinese students to enter its universities.

Jim Reed also wrote from Destche Bank in a note sent to luck This morning: “In general, this left a feeling that the two sides have re -established the trade truce that was referred to in Geneva last month, but with the path remains towards any real and unclear commercial normalization.”

Vassey Chimes: “Commercial talks between major economies remain pivotal, the formation of inflation and global market dynamics. We have heard some positive developments during the past week, but until there is more clarity, investor morale may return to macro drivers.”

This story was originally shown on Fortune.com

2025-06-12 10:12:00