Trump’s Tariff Threat Against Brazil Might Backfire

Earlier this year, Eduardo Polsonaro, son of former Brazilian President Gere Bolsonaro, left congress and moved to the United States. Since then, he has been pressuring for US President Donald Trump to intervene on behalf of his father, who is being tried to try the Brazilian elections 2022. After months of rest for players in Washington, including eating with Trump in Mar Lago, Eduardo Bolsonaro finally got what he wished.

Last week, Trump announced a 50 percent comprehensive tariff for all Brazilian exports to the United States from August 1. In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inosio Lula Da Silva, the leftist leader who defeated Jere Bolsonaro three years ago, Trump linked direct definitions to Bolsonaro’s legal dangers. In an echo of his defense in Timeworn against various indictment regulations, Trump described the trial of Bolsonaro as a “charming chase” and said the charges should be dropped “immediately!”

Earlier this year, Eduardo Polsonaro, son of former Brazilian President Gere Bolsonaro, left Congress and moved to the United States. Since then, he has been pressuring for US President Donald Trump to intervene on behalf of his father, who is being tried to try the Brazilian elections 2022. After months of rest for players in Washington, including eating with Trump in Mar Lago, Eduardo Bolsonaro finally got what he wished.

Last week, Trump announced a 50 percent comprehensive tariff for all Brazilian exports to the United States from August 1. In a letter to Brazilian President Luiz Inosio Lula Da Silva, the leftist leader who defeated Jere Bolsonaro three years ago, Trump linked direct definitions to Bolsonaro’s legal dangers. In an echo of his defense in Timeworn against various indictment regulations, Trump described the trial of Bolsonaro as a “charming chase” and said the charges should be dropped “immediately!”

While Trump was able to convert his legal obligations into a political currency, it is unlikely to be able to export that dynamic to the Brazilian context. In fact, early evidence indicates that his worrying decision to mobilize Brazil for purely punitive definitions was disastrous for Brazilian supporters in Bolsonaro.

What was intended as a display of power by Maga and its Brazilian privilege has turned into a political gift Lula, who is now obtaining himself with credibility as a symbol of national resistance while leaving his opponents scrambling to choose between the loyalty of Polasonaro and the economic interests of their base.

To start, it may be that It is too late for Polsonaro. While it still is popular among many conservatives, Bolsonaro has already prevented the search for an office in the foreseeable future. Recently, it appears to be suffering, away from the glowing reactionary leader who celebrated the brutal military dictatorship in Brazil and the institutional restrictions constantly. Evidence against the former president, who led the storming of his nation in 2023, is so much that even his allies expect condemnation later this year.

Trump’s second justification for his sudden step was defense of the “basic freedom of expression rights for Americans”. These rights are supposed to be besieged through Brazil’s efforts to compel social media companies on the soil to follow the local regulations related to the spread of misleading information and hate speech via the Internet. But Trump is very late in embracing this tired narration as well. Months ago, the police in Brazil caused some posts on the online platforms in anger among the Brazilian people and the Silicon Valley complainants. Elon Musk called himself strongly to X, previously known as Twitter, as he chose to fight with the Brazilian Supreme Court judge Alexander de Morais. But musk has declined long ago, as the issue fades to the back of the right -wing right -wing cell like many Du jour scandals.

So why is Trump behaves now? We can only predict that, in the words of the Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, the new definitions are only a little economic. One of the possibilities is that he simply wants an excuse to meet the tariff stick again. Although Brazilian exports to the United States account for less than 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, it exports more than China’s weakness. Democratic institutions in Brazil, as Paul Crowgman argues, have a little reasonable incentive to bend to accommodate the personal air of the US President.

Instead, the Trump boat can also be connected to the BRICS, which has just ended in Rio de Janeiro. At the beginning of the summit, Trump threatened an additional 10 percent over any country in line with what the “anti-American” BRICS policies called-part of a wider pattern of filming cooperative diplomacy within the southern global countries as a direct insult to political and economic domination in Washington. Consequently, the BRICS leaders, who represent an alliance of emerging economies, emphasized their commitment to the global multiple arrangement and criticized the “random rise of definitions”, a blocked reprimand from American commercial policy. When putting a point more accurate, Lula announced during the meeting that the world did not need or want an “emperor” to form global trade according to his individual interests.

In the face of signs of changing global arrangement, Trump appears to be keen to reaffirm American precedence through harsh protectionism. However, his last step may bring counter -results.

The attempt to bullying in Brazil, the largest country in Latin America and the fourth largest democracy on Earth is a snapshot across the bow for all the BRICS countries. He risk paying Brazil – from a government point of view, the most prominent Brexes that oppose the expansion of the bloc last year to include the opponents of the United States such as Iran and Venezuela – in the US competitor’s camp such as Russia and China.

In addition to being a bad policy from Washington’s perspective, Trump’s move is a very bad policy for the Brazilian conservatives. Lula appeared increasingly in the second half of his third term, as he was struggling with low approval categories of Congress. Some of his allies and advisers have asked for his operation to re -election. Suddenly, thanks to Trump, he has a new vaginal message to unite the Brazilians from every tape: Brazil is a sovereign nation that will not be paid.

“Isn’t anyone in his team to explain to him not to insult another country like this?” Lula said last week, expressing a special crime in the fact that Trump announced the new definitions of social media without official notice. He added: “It is unacceptable that foreign interests exceed the Brazilian sovereignty.” Trump was inadvertently made if not in the fortress against the new colonialism, the role that Firerand will have more than happy to play.

In addition to everything else, it is also possible that Trump and his Brazilian followers can blame any economic opposite winds that Brazil might face from now until the Brazilian elections 2026. If the growth numbers decline in the coming months, you would be able to indicate the harmful effects of Trump’s heavy intervention. Thus, if Trump does not retract his introductory threat before August 1, the ambitious right -wing politicians who plan their political contracts after Bolsonaro, will be forced to the embarrassing situation either to defend the policy that will harm the Brazilians, material harm, or somewhat rhetorical gymnastics on Lula.

It seems that Bolsonaro and his sons seem happy to allow their country to suffer from the sin of not renewing their grip on power. But it is difficult to believe that Trump has already advised to take this work by anyone who knows anything about Latin America in general and Brazil in particular.