U.S. LNG Boom Faces Glut Risk by 2030

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The export boom in the United States of LNG may soon face challenges by the end of the contract, whether at home or in the international market.

The huge additions in the export capacity, most of them in the United States and Qatar, are scheduled to prepare the global liquefied natural gas market to increase the supply as soon as possible in the next year, which leads to prices of prices and eating in the margins of profit margins for liquefied natural gas exporters in the United States.

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At the local level, the LNG export industry will have to compete increasingly with the high demand for energy to generate energy in the United States, where natural gas is expected to meet part of the new demand for energy centers established by data centers and translating manufacturing activity.

Supply mutation

This year, American Natural Gas developers began to agree to the new project investments once the Trump administration raised the stopping of the new LNG projects that were launched by the Biden Administration.

To date this year, Woodside announced in Australia about FID for the Louisiana Lng project and plans to start production in 2029. US LNG Exporter Venture Global got in July on FID and successfully closed the project financing of $ 15.1 billion for the first stage of the third project of the company, CP2 LNG (CP2) alongside the CP line Express. Cheniere’s American source has achieved a positive individual for the Corpus Christi Midscale 8 and 9 project and the Debottlenecking project. Upon completion of the CCL MIDSCALE 8 and 9 trains, and with the expected Debottlecking stage and CCL, the Corpus Christi LNG station is expected to exceed 30 million tons annually (MTPA) in the total evaluation capacity later in this contract.

Related: The revival of the LNG project is required to be worth $ 20 billion in Mozambique

Many other FED projects are expected to take this year, and in the coming years, amid an increasing pipeline of proposals.

“The more liquefaction capacity in the United States that takes FID, the more, the longer, the longer, the longer and the deepest prices increase,” said analysts at Wood Mackeenzie earlier this month.

By 2030, the width of the exporters of the best liquefied natural gas, the United States and Qatar will be increased, where many American projects have been set to start operations and the largest expansion of LNG in Qatar will be completed by 2027.

Throughout the year, the newly approved American capacity of 95 % of all FIDS, with Argentina, the only country that has been reached by a project, according to estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Between 2025 and 2030, a total of 300 billion cubic meters per year is expected to come from the export of new liquefied natural gas from the Internet from projects that have already reached FID and/or under construction, according to the IEA device.

The agency noted that “this represents the largest wave of capacity in any similar period in the history of LNG markets” and excludes the Arctic 2 project in the Arctic 2, which began shipping fuel to China on the ships listed in the blacklist by the United States and Europe.

With all the new supplies that have been operated, the global market will start somewhat this year to an increase in dependence on approximately 50 BC in the next year, four times larger with 200 cubic meters in 2030, according to LSEG estimates by Ron Boso Buso Rones.

Despite the emerging risks, such as low prices amid increasing the expected global supply in liquefied natural gas at the end of the contract, “the United States is still liquefied natural gas, one of the most important energy investments,” indicated by WoodMac analysts.

American LNG exports will benefit from the increasing global demand. Moreover, American LNG contracts will remain commercially attractive to employees in the long run, while an increasing number of investors want a slice of American LNG, which expands access to a large group of capital, according to energy consultations.

The state of increased liquefied natural gas exports is still strong – a sample of US local rock gas production, the increasing need for American LNG, especially in Europe that is looking to get rid of Russian gas by January 2027, and the policy of “training, child, drilling”, which supports increased production of local oil, gas and gas.

American natural gas producers win any scenario significantly

The next LNG GLL can reduce profits for American exporters in the medium term, but the high export capacity is scheduled to increase the prices of local American natural gas. The price of the Henry natural gas spot will increase from $ 2.91 per million British thermal units (MMBTU) in August to $ 3.70/MMBTU in the fourth quarter and $ 4.30/MMBTU next year, which reflects relatively flat natural gas production amid the export of increasing exports.

High prices may stimulate the production of US local gas, which will be necessary not only to feed liquefied natural gas exports, but also to generate additional gas that works with gas amid high energy demand, due to the prosperity of artificial intelligence.

Natural gas producers will have a request to produce their coming from both local energy -powered energy and high liquefied natural gas exports. But the LNG can become a direct competitor to the American gas supplies.

Written by Tsfitana Paraskova for OilPrice.com

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2025-09-23 22:00:00

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